The Astros are planning to reinstate Tatsuya Imai from the injured list to face the Mariners next week, per Chandler Rome of The Athletic. As Rome outlines, Imai’s rehab results haven’t been great but the banged-up Houston rotation needs any arms it can get as the club kicks off a stretch of 13 straight games without a day off on Friday.
At this point, it’s hard to know what to make of Imai. He has been pretty dominant in Japan for the past few years but MLB clubs were apparently skeptical of how he would translate to North American ball. While it was thought he could secure a long-term deal with a nine-figure guarantee, he settled for a three-year, $54MM deal with opt-outs after each season. The ideal path forward for Imai would have seen him prove his bona fides against big league pitching before returning to free agency to cash in.
So far, it is not going according to plan. He couldn’t get out of the third inning in his first start. His second outing was good, as he tossed 5 2/3 scoreless frames. But in the third start, he only recorded one out.
He then landed on the IL with the vague diagnosis of arm fatigue. He began a rehab assignment on April 28th. Per Rome, the plan was for just one rehab outing but he allowed five earned runs in two innings while walking three. The Astros decided to give him a second rehab outing, hoping for four or five innings with fewer walks. He got through three innings but walked five.
The control issues are a concerning development, considering that had been an issue in his time in Japan. From 2019 to 2023, he finished each season with a walk rate of at least 11.4%. He did show improvement, dropping that to 9.8% in 2024 and then 7% last year. For reference, MLB average is usually around 8 to 9%. In his three starts for the Astros this year, he walked 25% of the batters he faced.
General manager Dana Brown is quoted in Rome’s piece, saying basically that Imai needs to have more faith in his own arsenal. “A big part of it is just allowing him to free his mind up (and) attack major-league hitters like he used to attack hitters in Japan. Don’t overthink it and just lock in and be yourself,” said Brown. “That’s a big point we’re trying to make to him: just be yourself and have confidence in the stuff because your stuff plays at this level.”
That’s interesting framing considering past comments from Imai. Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball has been playing with a dead ball in recent years, with offense way down. The run-scoring environment was so low that Imai got bored.
“I didn’t always dream of going to MLB,” Imai said in November, as relayed by Yakyu Cosmopolitan. “But over the past two or three years […] I felt like there weren’t many hitters who were even trying to hit a homer off me anymore. A lot of lineups would just foul pitches off and run up my pitch count. I get that’s a valid part of strategy, but if I were a fan, I don’t think that kind of baseball is very fun to watch.”
This is perhaps an oversimplification but it’s possible the dead ball allowed Imai to attack the strike zone more, lowering his walk rates. With the move to MLB, maybe he has become more concerned with nibbling at the edges and has thus lost his feel a bit.
Time will tell if he can get back in good form but the recent numbers aren’t encouraging. The Astros are evidently going to try anyway, a reflection of their snakebit rotation. In addition to Imai hitting the IL for arm fatigue, they have lost Hunter Brown and Cristian Javier to shoulder strains this year. That’s on top of Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski and Brandon Walter, each of whom is still recovering from surgery performed last year.
Their rotation currently consists of Lance McCullers Jr., Mike Burrows, Spencer Arrighetti, Cody Bolton and Peter Lambert. McCullers is now a question mark for his next start. He couldn’t get through three innings yesterday, later telling Rome that it was due to issues with the fingernail on the index finger of his throwing hand. He is unsure if he’ll be able to take the ball next time.
The Astros are off today. In Cincinnati this weekend, they are scheduled to have Burrows and Arrighetti for the first two. After that, Bolton or Lambert could start on Sunday and/or Monday. Imai will be in the mix next week, perhaps as soon as Monday. If McCullers can’t take the ball and they want to bring someone else into the mix, their choices may be limited. Both Ryan Weiss and Jason Alexander have been optioned in recent days. A pitcher can’t be recalled after being optioned until 15 days have elapsed, unless someone else is going on the IL.
Kai-Wei Teng and AJ Blubaugh have been pitching some multi-inning stints from the bullpen and could take on some bulk. Colton Gordon was optioned on April 25th, so his 15-day window will soon be up. Miguel Ullola is on the 40-man but is struggling with control in Triple-A and the Astros haven’t called him up this year, despite calling almost every other hand on deck. J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are some non-roster options in Triple-A.
Photo courtesy of Thomas Shea, Imagn Images
