It’s never too early for a mock draft — scratch that, it’s almost always too early for a mock draft, but I can only kick that particular can down the road for so long. The 2026 MLB Draft will begin on July 11, right here in my backyard, but don’t worry, we have plenty of space. Or it’s somewhere in Philadelphia.
This year’s draft class has turned out to be a lot weaker up top than expected. Yes, there is depth, especially in high school pitching, and some of the high school bats who’ll go in the 20-40 range (or get paid like it) are interesting, but overall, the first round is kind of meh. It’s not close to 2023, which looked incredible at the time and has held up, or 2024, which looked fair at the time, definitely not amazing, but has already churned out a deserving Rookie of the Year (Nick Kurtz), the No. 1 prospect this winter (Konnor Griffin), playoff star Trey Yesavage and much more. Seven of the first nine picks from 2024 are in the majors already.
Below is my educated guess at how the first round might unfold if teams were selecting players today, based on what I’ve heard from league sources about teams’ specific interests, what I know about the way scouting directors and team models value players, and my general sense of how the industry views players (for picks where I don’t have any good information).
A couple of names who would be on here if fully healthy: UCLA starter Logan Reddemann was getting top-10 attention when he went down with “arm fatigue,” with no return date scheduled, and high school catcher Will Brick could sneak into the back of the first round, but he did miss a week or so recently due to a concussion, returning to play last week.
(Notes: Atlanta was awarded pick No. 26 as part of the Prospect Promotion Incentive program when Drake Baldwin won the National League Rookie of the Year. The Mets’ first pick dropped from 17 to 27 for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax. The Astros earned pick No. 28 for Hunter Brown finishing in the top three of the AL Cy Young Award voting as a pre-arbitration eligible player. The Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies and Blue Jays all had their first picks pushed back 10 spots for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the CBA and won’t make their first picks until the late 30s. This mock draft goes through pick No. 28.)
Player Type Pitcher Position Player Position Player/Pitcher
School Type 4-Year College High School
Position 3B C LHP OF RHP SS
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Player Profile
School: Fort Worth Christian (North Richland Hills, Texas), Bats: L, Throws: R
I keep hearing that the White Sox are leaning towards the two main prep shortstops, Emerson and Jacob Lombard, although I can’t rule out that this is posturing to try to get a better deal with Roch Cholowsky, the putative top prospect in the class. Emerson at No. 1 makes sense if you think he’s the next Kevin McGonigle — a very advanced hitter from a small high school whose value rests heavily on the hit tool. Emerson’s a better shortstop right now than McGonigle was as a senior, while McGonigle had more power. Lombard, meanwhile, would be a bet on upside; he might have the best overall tools on the high school side, but his hit tool is a huge question mark.
Position Player
High School
SS
Player Profile
School: UCLA, Bats: R, Throws: R
Assuming the White Sox go with a high schooler, the Rays would have a choice between Cholowsky and Vahn Lackey, the Georgia Tech catcher, and I assume they’d take the safer option in Cholowsky, who was the consensus 1-1 pick coming into the spring and has performed about as well as he did last year. I don’t think either would be a bad choice, and Rays fans know they could use a franchise prospect at either position.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
Player Profile
School: Georgia Tech, Bats: R, Throws: R
The Twins have drafted in the top five twice in the last decade and went high school both times; they might be Grady Emerson’s soft floor, but I don’t think they’d go for Jacob Lombard or any other prep name if Emerson’s gone. Lackey is the best player available in this scenario with the strong hit tool that the Twins value higher than most clubs.
Position Player
4-Year College
C
Player Profile
School: UC Santa Barbara, Bats: R, Throws: R
Flora is the top pitching prospect in the class, college or high school, and the Giants have gone college in the first round seven times in eight years, with Bryce Eldridge as the exception (and a good one). I’d be shocked if Roch Cholowsky or Vahn Lackey got past them, in a scenario where Flora or a surprise name goes ahead of this pick. Just spitballing, but they seem like they could roll the dice on Justin Lebron, who otherwise I don’t think is going up here as his contact rate has dropped in conference play.
Player Profile
School: Oak Grove HS (Hattiesburg, Miss.), Bats: L, Throws: L
The Pirates’ last three first-round picks: Paul Skenes (2023), Konnor Griffin (2024) and Seth Hernandez (2025); the first two are already in the majors and the third is currently dominating Low A in his pro debut. They did lose scouting director Justin Horowitz to the Nationals, where he’s now an assistant GM, but I expect them to stick with the same approach in the draft, targeting high-upside players like Booth who give the team the chance for superstars they won’t get as free agents. I do think they’d take any of the three college guys who I have going 2-3-4.
Position Player
High School
OF
Player Profile
School: Gulliver Prep (Pinecrest, Fla.), Bats: R, Throws: R
I’ve heard the Royals heaviest with Lombard and Eric Booth Jr., with pitching as the fallback option, either a safe, quick-moving college starter, or maybe one of the best high school arms like Carson Bolemon on a discount.
Position Player
High School
SS
Player Profile
School: Georgia Tech, Bats: R, Throws: R
I’m only hearing the Orioles connected with bats, naturally, although I assume they’d take Jackson Flora here if he’s still available. There’s being prudent, and then there’s being dogmatic. Beyond Burress, I’ve heard them with Eric Booth Jr. and Derek Curiel.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: LSU, Bats: L, Throws: L
Mostly hearing college players for the A’s, including Curiel, Zion Rose and Hunter Dietz, with high schoolers Eric Booth Jr. and Bo Lowrance outside possibilities. I don’t think they’d take a high school arm here.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Mississippi, Bats: R, Throws: R
I’ve heard this one a couple of times, which makes sense as Atlanta is fairly model-heavy and Townsend’s pitches grade out extremely well. If any team jumps to take a prep arm in the top 10, I think it’d be them, maybe Carson Bolemon or Brody Bumila.
Player Profile
School: Virginia, Bats: L, Throws: R
I think the Rockies will grab a college bat here, maybe a little under slot, and then fish in the high school pitching pond afterwards, including at picks 37 and 38. This pick could be Becker, Drew Burress, Derek Curiel or maybe Ryder Helfrick. I haven’t heard them with Tyler Bell, but he’d be a great fit.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
Player Profile
School: Texas A&M, Bats: R, Throws: R
I know the Nats like Hacopian and Tyler Bell, not sure about Ryder Helfrick, although he fits here. I don’t think they go high school with this pick.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
3B
Player Profile
School: Arkansas, Bats: R, Throws: R
Helfrick is an educated guess here — he’s a good enough defender that he could move somewhat quickly, and could probably catch in the majors next year. I’ve also heard them with Hunter Dietz and Cameron Flukey as pitchers they could zip to the majors within a year (or in Flukey’s case, probably this year, given how little he’s pitched this college season because of his rib injury).
Position Player
4-Year College
C
Player Profile
School: Florida, Bats: R, Throws: R
I think the bats they like most will all be gone, leaving the Cardinals with the best college arms beyond Jackson Flora to pick from (Liam Peterson, Hunter Dietz, Cade Townsend), and maybe Tyler Bell, although that’s a little of my own take on where Bell should go. Bell’s hitting .374/.556/.626, playing with one good shoulder!
Player Profile
School: Arkansas, Bats: R, Throws: L
Dietz grades out pretty well however you assess him — models like his pitch shapes, scouts like the arsenal and the aggressive approach, and he’s had success in the SEC in his first actual year of pitching after two years of injuries. I wonder if they’d roll the dice on Justin Lebron as an upside play, even with the obvious risk in the bat.
Player Profile
School: Kentucky, Bats: B, Throws: R
The Diamondbacks don’t generally let consensus picks get past them, and they’ve had success with that approach. They’ve only taken a pitcher with their first selection once in the last decade, and that was 2020 (Bryce Jarvis). They could be a dark horse on Zion Rose or Sawyer Strosnider, highly regarded bats with some defensive questions.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
Player Profile
School: Alabama, Bats: R, Throws: R
The Rangers are definitely not afraid to take a chance on a famous prospect like Lebron with red or yellow flags on the scouting report if they believe in the upside. I could also see them taking Cameron Flukey if he’s here, figuring he was getting top-10 buzz before the rib injury.
Position Player
4-Year College
SS
Player Profile
School: Coastal Carolina, Bats: R, Throws: R
Given how Flukey seemed like a top-three starter in the class coming into the year (along with Jackson Flora and Liam Peterson), he can’t really slide that far for a non-arm injury (he had a stress reaction in his rib), right? I could also see them taking Jared Grindlinger, who just turned 17 last weekend, or Bo Lowrance, going for high-upside high school bats (with Grindlinger also a potential two-way guy).
Player Profile
School: Bishop Feehan HS (Attleboro, Mass.), Bats: L, Throws: L
I don’t know how high Bumila can go, as he’s a high school pitcher who’s already had an internal brace procedure on his pitching elbow, but he has been so good — hitting 102 mph last weekend at Wellesley (the high school, not the college, they don’t have a baseball team) that he’s probably going to be the first high school arm taken. The Reds went high-risk, high-upside last year with Steele Hall, but haven’t taken a high school pitcher with their first pick since Hunter Greene.
Player Profile
School: Huntington Beach (Calif.) HS, Bats: L, Throws: L
I mean, I wouldn’t be me if I didn’t assign the Guardians the youngest player who’d be a good fit at their spot. (Rocco Maniscalco is younger than Grindlinger, but he hasn’t hit well at all this spring.) They do like high school pitching, but not with their first pick; they could go that route at pick 29.
Position Player/Pitcher
High School
OF
LHP
Player Profile
School: Christ Church Episcopal (Greenville, SC), Bats: L, Throws: R
Lowrance is one of the late risers in the class — he’s been around all spring but national scouts were racing in to see his last few games, and now there’s talk he’ll go in the first round, maybe as high as the back of the top 10. Boston might be a soft floor for him. I’m just speculating here, but Tegan Kuhns has the kind of stuff they seem to like, and there’s a great foundation for their pitching development group. (I’d say that even more for Brett Renfrow, but he’d be a reach here.)
Position Player
High School
3B
Player Profile
School: Stoneman Douglas HS (Parkland, Fla.), Bats: R, Throws: L
If Brody Bumila is still available, and the Padres don’t take him, I will eat … some fish tacos. I don’t have the guts to finish that sentence some other way. Anyway, in the last four drafts, only six teams have taken a high school pitcher in the top 30 picks, and the Padres are the only team to do it three times. In this draft, where there’s depth in the prep arms but they’ll mostly still be on the board at this pick, I’m going to assign them a high school pitcher like Rojas until told otherwise.
Player Profile
School: Southside Christian School (Simpsonville, SC), Bats: B, Throws: L
Straight guess here. I could see the Tigers with Bo Lowrance, or maybe one of the high school bats I see as more comp/second rounders — Landon Thome, Will Brick, James Clark, Trevor Condon, etc.
Player Profile
School: Louisville, Bats: R, Throws: R
I’ve heard the Cubs love Rose, and I agree. He missed almost half the season so far with a hamstring injury, but he’s hitting .416/.504/.673, and that’s without fattening up by playing Pencil State in the first few weekends. I could see them with Sawyer Strosnider, too.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Virginia, Bats: L, Throws: L
I’ve heard more bats than arms at the Mariners’ pick, but also that’s what’s mostly on the board at this point — and the Mariners haven’t taken a high school pitcher with their first pick since 2010. (Guess who it was.) Gracia and Sawyer Strosnider would fit, but I’d be zero percent surprised to see them grab one of those high school bats I mentioned with Detroit.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: TCU, Bats: L, Throws: L
This pick is me playing the scenario out — Strosnider at this spot in the draft is insane value, and some team that isn’t “attached” to him in the rumors is just going to take him. His batted-ball data is very strong and Milwaukee does value that quite highly.
Position Player
4-Year College
OF
Player Profile
School: Ganesha HS (Pomona, Calif.), Bats: L, Throws: L
I’m assuming — or guessing — that if Atlanta takes a college arm at pick nine, they’d prefer to go back to high school at pick 26, rather than take another college pitcher like Tegan Kuhns. Under GM Alex Anthopoulos and director Ronit Shah, they haven’t shown the team’s old proclivity for taking local high school players, but Trevor Condon is sitting right there.
Player Profile
School: Tennessee, Bats: B, Throws: R
Again, at this point, I’m working more off vibes than strong links. I imagine the Mets’ player development staff would be ecstatic to get Kuhns in; they’ll have a sweeper ready for him before the ink is dry.
Player Profile
School: Nazareth Academy (La Grange Park, Ill.), Bats: L, Throws: R
I saw Thome last year, as he was Jaden Fauske’s teammate in high school, and I didn’t think Thome — who is the son of Jim Thome — would end up a first-rounder or that close to it, but he’s made real strides and it seems like he’s going in the top 40ish picks.
Position Player
High School
SS
