When news broke on Thursday that quarterback Aaron Rodgers was heading to Pittsburgh, it seemed at first that a dam break of normalcy was returning to the city framed by three rivers.
It’s all still kind of abnormal.
Rodgers will be showing up not for a veteran workout session, but for rookie minicamp. There are reports he wants to get to know the new players. The Steelers reportedly didn’t even know he was coming to town. (As one source put it, the Steelers chalked the development up to “Aaron being Aaron.”)
Hovering over the entire situation is the absence of an agreement, tentative or official, between Rodgers and the Steelers. Despite the insistence by some that it’s not about money, an NFL veteran contract is only about money. All other terms are predetermined via the CBA. Amount of money to be paid and structure of the payments are the only things for haggling.
If the two sides had an understanding as to what will be paid, there would be widespread reports of a deal being in place.
Here’s the problem. Rodgers gave the Steelers the equivalent of an introductory rate in 2025. Now, the price is increasing over the relative bargain basement cost of $13.65 million.
The Steelers understandably don’t want to pay more than the introductory rate, with perhaps a slight adjustment for inflation. And, like most savvy consumers who know that a phone call to customer service with a suggestion of cancellation can result in something closer to the introductory rate than full retail, the Steelers are pushing back.
From Rodgers’s perspective, there’s no leverage. There’s no alternative. No other team has expressed any interest in signing Rodgers to a contract.
From the team’s perspective, there’s also no leverage. The alternative to Rodgers is Mason Rudolph or Will Howard or rookie Drew Allar. Which is the same as saying there’s no alternative.
That’s ultimately why the Steelers used the UFA tender, in our opinion. They’ve said it was simply about getting a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere. The truth, we believe, is that it was about eliminating his alternative to playing for the Steelers or no one.
Without the UFA tender, Rodgers could have waited and watched. He could have signed with anyone, at any time. Before the season. During the season. Late in the season. During the postseason.
The message would have been simple. “Until you pay me what I want, I’ll just wait for another opportunity to potentially emerge.”
The Steelers have now blocked that path. Which brings the question back to playing for the Steelers or no one. Which compels the two sides to come to an agreement on money — especially with Rodgers showing up in Pittsburgh and apparently planning to loiter around the locker room until a deal is done.
So what’s a fair salary for 2026? At a minimum, it likely begins with a “2″. And it’s hardly unfair to expect $25 million, given that Malik Willis has parlayed six career starts into a $25 million-per-year deal with the Dolphins.
Our guess is that they’ll eventually reach an agreement. Possibly in the range of $20 million plus incentives that can push it to more than $25 million based on postseason success or other triggers. (Last year’s deal included $5.85 million in incentives, $500,000 of which — for a playoff berth — was earned.)
Still, there’s no agreement yet. And the only holdup is money. That’s the only thing that a team and a veteran player have to negotiate in order to come to terms. If it wasn’t an issue, there would be a contract.
