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The UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Prelims continue to roll from Newark, New Jersey as we’re back with another prediction and pick for this Lightweight (155) tilt. American Top Team’s Grant Dawson takes on Poland’s Mateusz Rebecki in a highly-competitive scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Dawson-Rebecki prediction and pick.
Grant Dawson (23-3-1) is 11-2-1 inside his UFC tenure since 2019. He was riding a three-fight winning streak with two unanimous wins before falling to Manuel Torres via TKO in his last fight. He comes into this bout the slight favorite looking to bounce back and continue his chase towards the rankings. Dawson stands 5-foot-10 with a 72-inch reach.
Mateusz Rebecki (20-4) has gone 4-3 during his UFC tenure since 2023. He’s gone 1-3 over his last four fights, but the last three consecutive bouts he’s been in have been awarded ‘Fight of the Night’ honors. Rebecki will be looking to turn in another exciting performance as he tries for his first win since 2024, standing 5-foot-7 with a 66-inch reach.
UFC 328 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 328 Odds: Grant Dawson-Mateusz Rebecki Odds
Grant Dawson: -166
Mateusz Rebecki: +140
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
Why Grant Dawson Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Manuel Torres – TKO (strikes, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 13 SUB
After notching three straight wins over the likes of Joe Solecki (U DEC), Rafa Garcia (TKO), and Diego Ferreira (U DEC), Grant Dawson simply got caught during his last bout against Manuel Torres at UFC 323. Dawson came in the -250 favorite to win, but Manuel Torres came out with a different energy that night and landed a perfect uppercut to sit Dawson down early. He couldn’t do much to recover from that, but it could have served as a learning moment to stay ready no matter who the opponent.
This time around, Dawson will have to be much more cautious as he’ll be dealing with similar one-punch knockout ability from Rebecki. Dawson’s only two losses in the UFC have come by similar knockouts, but he’s been very defensive and technical otherwise both on the feet and on the ground. He’ll have the clear grappling advantage over Rebecki and should look to take the fight there early in testing his opponent’s will.
All in all, Grant Dawson should be in a good position to win this fight with a noticeable size advantage. He’s quicker on the feet and more fluid with his movements on the ground, but there’s no doubt he’ll have a tough time putting away a durable fighter like Rebecki. Instead, Dawson should look to push a high pace in hopes of tiring his opponent and controlling the transitions on the ground.
Why Mateusz Rebecki Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) L’udovit Klein – MAJ. DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Mateusz Rebecki has been incapable of a boring fight over his last five appearance, putting everything into his striking and relentlessly walking down his opponents. He could have easily gotten the decision nod during his last loss to Klein, leading the striking total 113-90 and also landing three of his 12 takedown attempts. Two of his last three bouts have been razor-thin decisions that haven’t gone his way, so expect him to make a concerted effort in trying to finish this one inside the distance and leave it out of the judges’ hands.
Rebecki is extremely difficult to deal with thanks to his stature and willingness to walk forward through his opponents’ offense. He’s very physically strong and can control opponents along the fence, usually taking his time to clinch and grapple for a single leg if he can find it. He may not want to mix things up too much on the ground against a strong grappler like Dawson, but Rebecki has seven submission victories of his own and has never been submitted in his career.
Still, he’ll have to be defensive in his wrestling to avoid Dawson putting him on his back. Rebecki is much more effective when he’s able to work from the top in closed or half guard, so expect him to be the first in pulling the trigger when it comes to the takedown attempts.
Final Grant Dawson-Mateusz Rebecki Prediction & Pick
This fight should be highly competitive as both fighters combine for 20 submission wins with no submission losses between them. They could very well respect each other enough to keep this fight standing, but we have to give the slight grappling edge to Grant Dawson and how dynamic he is with transitions and submission attempts from everywhere.
While Rebecki will be constantly threatening the knockout, I expect Grant Dawson to be much more defensively sound coming off his last loss and looking like a much sharper version of himself. For our final prediction, let’s roll with Grant Dawson to earn the win as this fight should head towards a decision.
Final Grant Dawson-Mateusz Rebecki Prediction & Pick: Grant Dawson (-166); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-154)
The UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland Prelims continue to roll from Newark, New Jersey as we’re back with another prediction and pick for this Lightweight (155) tilt. American Top Team’s Grant Dawson takes on Poland’s Mateusz Rebecki in a highly-competitive scrap. Check our UFC odds series for the Dawson-Rebecki prediction and pick.
