Bass leads primary for LA Mayor with 30% support; Pratt and Raman trail
A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll of the primary election for Governor of California finds former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading the field at 19%, followed by Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer at 17% respectively. Ten percent support Katie Porter, and 8% Matt Mahan. Twelve percent are undecided.
“Xavier Becerra tops the crowded California primary for the first time in an Emerson poll, his support increased by nine points since mid-April, driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer closely follow at 17% respectively, Hilton’s support stagnant, while Steyer’s support increased three points since April.”
Undecided voters were asked whom they would support if the election were held today and they had to decide right now. When including which candidate undecided voters lean toward, support for Becerra increases by one point to 20%, Steyer by two points to 19%, Hilton by one point to 18%, and Katie Porter by three points to 13%.
Of voters who have decided on a candidate in the gubernatorial primary, 60% say they will definitely support their chosen candidate, while 40% could change their mind and vote for someone else.
- Of the top three candidates, Hilton voters are most likely to not change their vote at 73%, while 52% of Becerra voters say they will definitely vote for him, while 48% could change their mind. Fifty-two percent of Tom Steyer voters say there is a chance they could change their mind, while 48% will definitely support him.
In the primary election for Los Angeles Mayor, 30% support incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, 22% support television personality Spencer Pratt, 19% support City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and 7% support tech entrepreneur Adam Miller. Support for Bass increased by 10 points since March, Pratt by 12 points, and Raman by 10 points, while the percentage of undecided voters dropped from 51% to 16%.
“There is an age divide in the mayoral primary: 47% of voters over 60 break for Bass, while 25% support Pratt and 6% Raman,” Kimball said. “Voters under 40 break for Raman at 31%, followed by Bass at 20% and Pratt at 13%.”
- A plurality of women (36%) support Bass, while 16% support Pratt, and 15% support Raman. A plurality of men (30%) support Pratt, while 25% support Raman and 24% support Bass.
Forty-two percent of Californians say the economy is the top issue facing the state, 21% say housing affordability is the top issue, 9% threats to democracy, 8% immigration, 7% healthcare and 6% crime.
Methodology
The Emerson College Polling California survey was conducted May 9-10, 2026. The overall sample of likely primary voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The sample of likely voters in Los Angeles, n=350, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 5.2 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
Data was collected by contacting an online panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English.
All questions asked in this survey with exact wording and order, along with full results, demographics, and cross tabulations can be found below. The survey was sponsored by Nexstar Media.
