Multiple Authors
All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday’s top batter prop bets
Fernando Tatis Jr. | OVER 0.5 HR (+564)
Projection: 17% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.89 EV
Seiya Suzuki | OVER 0.5 RBI (+205)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.63 EV
Seiya Suzuki | OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (+115)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.63 EV
Randal Grichuk | UNDER 0.5 H (+134)
Projection: 48% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.99 EV
Munetaka Murakami | UNDER 0.5 H (+127)
Projection: 52% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.27 EV
Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets
Luis Castillo | OVER 5.5 K (+113)
Projection: 57% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.03 EV
Chase Burns | UNDER 6.5 K (+110)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.36 EV
Ben Brown | UNDER 3.5 K (+118)
Projection: 56% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.95 EV
Emmet Sheehan | UNDER 2.5 ER (-168)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.34 EV
Landen Roupp | UNDER 5.5 K (-145)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $7.49 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
PITCHER
MONEY
LINE
PROJ.
WIN%
VALUE %
RUN
LINE
OV
VALUE %
GAME
TOTAL
O/U
xRUNS
VALUE %
Chase Dollander
+149
37.6
-7.82
+1.0
+100
-9.56
7.5
O -113
8.93
6.97
Carmen Mlodzinski
-181
62.4
-2.22
-1.0
-130
-3.08
U -106
-15.95
Foster Griffin
+130
41.3
-5.63
+1.0
-111
-4.21
8.0
O -113
8.54
-6.69
Chase Burns
-157
58.7
-3.47
-1.0
-117
-7.99
U -107
-2.30
Keider Montero
+144
43.6
6.43
+1.0
-104
5.28
7.5
O +101
8.27
2.95
Nolan McLean
-175
56.4
-11.40
-1.0
-125
-16.61
U -121
-10.91
Griffin Canning
+124
49.4
11.42
+1.0
-122
9.78
8.0
O -105
8.54
-3.79
Kyle Harrison
-149
50.6
-16.01
-1.0
-106
-22.91
U -114
-4.79
Braxton Garrett
+104
46.9
-4.43
+1.0
-147
-5.05
8.5
O -117
9.23
-5.91
Connor Prielipp
-125
53.1
-4.33
-1.0
+113
-7.37
U -103
-2.90
Luis Castillo
-131
53.7
-4.73
-1.0
-106
-7.42
9.0
O -119
9.39
-14.66
Michael Burrows
+109
46.3
-3.92
+1.0
-122
-4.72
U -102
6.21
Michael McGreevy
-105
47.7
-7.81
-1.0
+116
-10.53
9.5
O -107
10.81
3.38
Jacob Lopez
-114
52.3
-0.92
+1.0
-151
-2.63
U -112
-11.87
Jesus Luzardo
-114
53.9
2.66
-1.0
+113
0.79
7.5
O -105
7.68
-9.62
Ranger Suarez
-105
46.1
-11.54
+1.0
-147
-11.48
U -114
0.82
Ben Brown
+135
47.6
12.14
+1.0
-111
9.70
7.5
O -117
8.97
5.70
Chris Sale
-163
52.4
-15.65
-1.0
-117
-21.56
U -103
-15.23
Kris Bubic
-143
61.1
5.03
-1.0
-113
5.12
8.0
O -119
8.98
-2.41
Anthony Kay
+119
39.0
-16.36
+1.0
-114
-16.97
U -101
-6.53
Landen Roupp
+145
39.1
-5.75
+1.0
-101
-6.86
8.0
O -115
9.13
2.32
Emmet Sheehan
-176
61.0
-3.51
-1.0
-129
-5.56
U -104
-11.20
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action.
Los Angeles Dodgers Team Total UNDER:
The Dodgers have been under this total in nine consecutive home games. (+9.15 Units / 91% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -125
Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER:
The Athletics have won this bet in seven straight home games. (+7.15 Units / 86% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ +100
Washington Nationals 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
Washington has won this bet in seven consecutive road contests. (+7.05 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 0.5 @ -115
Atlanta Braves Game Total UNDER:
Games at Truist Park have seen this total go under five times in a row. (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 7.5 @ -103
