A matchup that was once known as the MASN Cup takes on a new identity this summer. The Nationals are now one of the many teams that works directly with MLB to broadcast their games locally. Meanwhile, the Orioles are back out on their own channel for the first since 2004, when they were still on Comcast SportsNet. Everything old is new again.
As for the on-field play, these two teams are in frustratingly similar places. The Nationals are 21-23, nine games back of first place in the NL East and 4.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the NL. The Orioles are 20-24, nine games back of first place in the AL East but only 1.5 games back of the final wild card spot in the AL.
Washington has one of the most productive lineups in baseball. The 236 runs they have scored is just one fewer than the league-leading Atlanta Braves. Other stats where they rank within the top five in MLB: doubles, slugging percentage, and stolen bases.
CJ Abrams and James Wood lead the attack. Abrams’ 158 wRC+ is the best on the team, as is his .292 batting average, .390 on-base, and .532 slug. Wood is the masher of the group. He has hit 12 home runs on the year and scored 36 runs, both team highs. The Rockville native is a “three true outcomes” type, as he has a 17.0% walk rate and a 31.9% strikeout rate.
Joey Wiemer (154 wRC+), Curtis Mead (126 wRC+), José Tena (122 wRC+), Daylen Lile (113 wRC+), and Luis García Jr (108 wRC+) have all done well at the plate too. Nasim Nuńez isn’t much of a threat in the box (62 wRC+), but be careful if he gets on base. His 18 steals are tied for the most in Major League Baseball, and he has only been caught twice.
Run prevention is where Washington has struggled. No one has allowed more than the 256 runs that they have, and only the Astros (5.59) have a worse ERA than the D.C.’s 5.01. The bullpen has been a bit better than the rotation. Their ERA is just 4.81, and it has come across 204 innings, the biggest workload of any bullpen in the league.
Six different Nationals pitchers have recorded saves on the year, but the team doesn’t really have a lockdown arm. Gus Varland leads the squad with four saves. He also has a 4.50 ERA and only strikes out 9.56 per nine innings. Outside of that, it’s an anonymous crew that is still figuring out roles. Old friend Cionel Pérez has tossed 16 innings for them this season, but he elected free agency earlier this month and is now in the Mets organization.
The Washington IL is full of pitchers. Noteable inclusions are Josiah Gray (right flexor strain) and Trevor Williams (right elbow sprain). Neither one will play this weekend.
Game 1: Friday, May 15th, 6:45 p.m., MASN
RHP Shane Baz (1-4, 5.48 ERA) vs. RHP Zack Littell (1-4, 6.94 ERA)
It feels fair to say that Baz has had one genuinely good start in an Orioles uniform. That came against the Astros in late April. Over his two starts since, the power righty has allowed 10 earned runs over 10.1 total innings. Walks have been an issue for him. If he can avoid the free passes, things should work out alright. That’s easier said than done, of course.
Littell was brought in to be a dependable veteran arm in a Washington rotation that needed the structure. Instead, he has struggled mightily. He is walking (3.22 BB/9) and striking out (4.21 K/9) batters at nearly an identical rate. His 8.26 FIP is even worse than his 6.94 ERA.
Game 2: Saturday, May 16th, 4:05 p.m., MASN, FS1
RHP Chris Bassitt (3-2, 5.21 ERA) vs. RHP Cade Cavalli (1-2, 4.02 ERA)
Two of the last three starts that Bassitt has made have gone well! He gave up just one run in six innings against the Athletics earlier in the week, and allowed one run over 6.2 frames against the Astros at the end of April. In between the two was a poor outing in Miami. But overall, it is improvement! The Orioles do not need perfection from Bassit. They need innings and solid quality. More recently, he has provided exactly that.
Cavalli has been a bright spot in the Nationals rotation, though he has waned recently. The 27-year-old is a hard thrower, but it’s his off-speed stuff that gets the best marks. Even still, it’s a fastball-heavy arsenal that should give the Orioles a chance to score some runs.
Game 3: Sunday, May 17th, 1:35 p.m., MASN
RHP Brandon Young (3-1, 4.15 ERA) vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (1-3, 7.00 ERA)
It’s tough to complain about what Young has come in and provided this Orioles rotation. He’s had one bad start in five attempts, and even in that one he was able to provide a little bit of length (four innings) despite an early meltdown. The Texas native has done nothing to change the perspective that he is simply a placeholder until Dean Kremer is back, but it feels like he has edged ahead of several others in the organizational depth chart when it comes to being the go-to spot starter when needed.
Mikolas allowed 11 earned runs in his second start of the year and has been fighting that in his ERA ever since. Overall, the veteran has been OK, I guess. The team doesn’t ask him for much, usually three to five innings without allowing the game to slip away. Usually he is able to accomplish that. You can expect a lot of ground balls. Mikolas is among the league leaders in that department (54.4% ground ball rate).
How many games do you think the Orioles will win in this series? Let us know in the comments.
