Jason Ence
• Betting Analyst
13+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 16, 2026 , 02:27 PM ET
• 4 min read
Logan Gilbert leads Seattle in a lopsided pitching matchup.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert (36).
The Seattle Mariners look to even their series with the San Diego Padres when the teams meet at T-Mobile Park tonight.
My Padres vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks key in on Seattle right-hander Logan Gilbert having a dominant outing on Saturday, May 16.
Who will win Padres vs Mariners tonight: Mariners -1.5 (+126)
Home runs seem to be the only way hitters can get to Logan Gilbert. The Seattle Mariners starter has allowed only five earned runs in his last three starts, all coming via solo bombs.
Since the start of April, Gilbert has posted the third-lowest walk rate of any qualified SP while stranding runners at the sixth-best rate. He will dominate a San Diego Padres lineup ranked 27th in xSLG, 29th in xwOBA, and 29th in K% over the past month.
Meanwhile, Walker Buehler has been a glorified BP pitcher for the Padres, owning a 10.13 ERA in three road starts. Seattle will punish him early and win easily.
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Padres vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (-124)
Once Buehler is gone, the San Diego bullpen will take over and help keep the scoring low. Over the past month, their relievers lead the majors in xERA while ranking second in xFIP and GB%.
The Mariners’ lineup also performs better outside of T-Mobile Park, posting a .347 wOBA on the road vs. just .320 at home the past month — and their bullpen has the fifth-best home in the majors the past two weeks, while ranking ninth in K%.
The Under is 7-2 in San Diego’s last nine and 8-2 in Seattle’s last 10, and that trend will continue.
Jason Ence’s 2026 Transparency Record
- ML/RL bets: 5-9, -4.94 units
- Over/Under bets: 10-4, +5.96 units
Padres vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Padres +144 | Mariners -172
- Run line: Padres +1.5 (-152) | Mariners -1.5 (+126)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+102) | Under 7.5 (-124)
Padres vs Mariners trend
San Diego has hit the team total Under in 18 of its last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.
How to watch Padres vs Mariners and game info
Location
T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA
Date
Saturday, May 16, 2026
First pitch
7:15 p.m. ET
TV
FOX
Padres starting pitcher
Walker Buehler
(2-2, 5.20 ERA)
Mariners starting pitcher
Logan Gilbert
(2-3, 3.78 ERA)
Padres vs Mariners latest injuries
Padres vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason has been hooked on football since watching Real Madrid and Manchester United in the 2003 Champions League, and has been betting on the sport for nearly 15 years. He has given soccer gambling and fantasy advice for nearly a decade, writing for sites including Rotowire, SB Nation, and The TwinSpires Edge.
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