The NBA has arrived at the very best part of the calendar. Four teams are left standing in the race for the 2026 championship, and it should produce the highest possible level of basketball played this season.
In the East, the New York Knicks are rolling, and playing the best basketball the franchise has seen since its last championship in 1973. The Cleveland Cavaliers are standing in their way after surviving a seven-game series against the Pistons.
Let’s rank the four teams still alive by their championships chances.
The Cavs and Knicks were expected to be the last two clubs left standing in the East at the start of the year, and that’s exactly what happened even if there were some twists for Cleveland that no one could have seen coming. The Cavs left no doubt in Game 7 against the Pistons despite another clunker from their trade deadline addition James Harden in a big game. It’s a testament to Cleveland’s talent level that Harden can no show and the team can still win a blowout. Harden will have better games against the Knicks, and he’ll need to for Cleveland to keep pace. The Cavs got Evan Mobley more involved in the offense after going down 0-2 to Detroit, and his continued growth represents Cleveland’s best chance to pull off an upset in the conference finals. Mobley and Jarrett Allen have the ability to give Karl-Anthony Towns fits defensively, and Mobley in particular should be able to hold up better than most bigs when switched onto Jalen Brunson. Donovan Mitchell probably has to be the best player in the series for Cleveland to make the NBA Finals, and he’s capable of getting to that level. This will be a huge series for Sam Merrill and Max Strus, the designated movement shooters for the Cavs who need to stay hot to match buckets with a powerful Knicks offense. New York has clearly been the better team in the playoffs, but Cleveland is still learning who it is, and there’s a chance it can still discover its best level in the conference finals.
Remember when the Knicks were trailing the Atlanta Hawks 2-1 in their first-round series and all of New York was ready to fire head coach Mike Brown? Since then, the Knicks have rattled off seven straight wins to look like a realistic championship challenger out of the East. The Knicks have been the favorite in the conference going back to the preseason, but it feels like they’re just starting to hit their stride and play their best ball at the best possible time. OG Anunoby’s right hamstring strain hangs over the team’s ascent, but he’s reportedly in line to play in Game 1 of this series. Anunoby is the skeleton key that makes New York go, providing spacing and three-point shooting around Jalen Brunson’s shot-creation and excellent defense next to two offensively-slanted stars in Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. While lineups with Brunson, KAT, and Anunoby are pretty mid on the season, Anunoby with one star on and the other star off crushes everything in its path. Brunson remains as good as it gets in crunch time: he’s always ready to pick out the weakest defender and attack them relentlessly, and it’s almost impossible to stop him from getting to his spots. This series and potentially the next one feel pivotal for Miles McBride and Mitchell Robinson as players who bring unique strengths off the bench. If Anunoby is back and regains the level he’s played at so far in the postseason, the Knicks are a big favorite in the East and could have a decent chance against the Thunder or Spurs.
It’s wild to think that Victor Wembanyama had never played in a playoff game entering his third season this year. All San Antonio did this season was win 62 games (second-most in the NBA), with Wemby ascending to a top-3 player in the world, and posing problems no one has a solution for. Wembanyama isn’t just 7’5 with an 8-foot wingspan, he also plays with an incredible motor and enough skill to hit shots all over the floor. Wemby alone would make this team a contender, the Spurs also moved up into the top-4 of the draft lottery the next two seasons after landing the best prospect of the generation. Put Wemby on the floor with Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, and the Spurs outscore opponents by 38.7 points per 100 possessions. Take Wemby and Castle off, and lineups led by Harper are still out-scoring opponents by +4.5 points. I’ll drop the fancy numbers for a second and just say the Spurs are much more than a one-man show. Luke Kornet provides elite rim protection as Wembanyama’s backup, and Julian Champagnie has grown into high-volume and accurate three-point shooter. Oh yeah, De’Aaron Fox is here too, and while he’s often frustrating, his shot-creation is still nice to have in a pinch. The Spurs have three losses throughout the playoffs, and two of them came when Wembanyama was either concussed or ejected. The Spurs already showed they could beat the Thunder in the regular season by winning the season series 4-1. No one should be surprised if this team wins the championship, and then wins a whole bunch more in the coming years.
The Thunder are 8-0 in the playoffs entering the Western Conference Finals, and six of those eight wins have been by double-figures. The Spurs will be a much tougher opponent than the Suns or Lakers, and in many ways this is the first real chapter of what should be the defining rivalry in the NBA for the foreseeable future. While the Spurs won four of the five games during the regular season, teams usually have to take their lumps before breaking through for a championship. Beyond that, OKC has answers for everything San Antonio can do outside of Wembanyama. The Thunder’s defense is one of the best units in league history, and players like Fox, Castle, and Harper won’t have such an easy time creating looks against them. San Antonio has some good defenders, but they don’t have anyone who can slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA scored 20+ points in literally every game this season on the way to back-to-back MVPs. Chet Holmgren is the closest thing to Wemby the United States has produced, and while he’s not nearly as good as his French counterpart, Holmgren still feels like a top-10 player in the league right now. Jalen Williams will reportedly be ready to go for game one, but he’s missed so much of this season with a hamstring injury that it’s hard to know how much he can be counted on. Of course, Ajay Mitchell has basically replicated the scoring and shot-creation Williams was providing, so the Thunder should be just fine either way. Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in the world right now, and while Wembanyama will probably grab that title from him soon (maybe even in the next two weeks), I think SGA has enough juice to get the Thunder over the finish line this year. This is an elite team in its prime, and they’re ready to break the NBA’s no repeats streak.
