Ed Scimia
• Betting Analyst
17+ years betting experience
Updated:
May 18, 2026 , 01:06 PM ET
• 4 min read
Carla Leite and Bridget Carleton will light up the Sun defense en route to an Over, per our WNBA expert.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Portland Fire forward Bridget Carleton.
The Connecticut Sun will seek their first win of the season as they visit the expansion Portland Fire on Monday night.
These teams haven’t played much defense so far this season, which has me backing the Over in my Sun vs. Fire predictions.
Let’s dive into tonight’s matchup and take a look at my free WNBA picks for Monday, May 18.
Sun vs Fire prediction
Sun vs Fire best bet: Over 173.5 (-110)
The Connecticut Sun are allowing a league-high 98.5 ppg on the year, while the expansion Portland Fire aren’t far behind at 98.0 ppg. The Sun and Fire also rank 13th and 14th in the league in defensive rating, respectively.
While Connecticut is also terrible offensively, Portland has shown some scoring ability, boasting a 106.5 offensive rating.
The Sun also push the pace, playing at the fastest pace in the WNBA.
All these factors have led both teams to hit the Over regularly early in the season, and I’m backing them to do so again tonight.
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Sun vs Fire same-game parlay
While neither of these teams has played a lick of defense yet this season, the Fire have shown the ability to score points, with Carla Leite (19.5 ppg) and Bridget Carleton (16.7 ppg) leading the way.
Portland has already scored an upset win over the New York Liberty in its debut season, and I like the Fire to cover in their first game as a favorite.
Speaking of Leite, she’s scored 18+ points in her first two appearances for the Fire. She’s likely to be back in the lineup after recovering from an ankle injury, and she should take center stage in the Portland offense tonight.
Sun vs Fire SGP
- Over 173.5
- Fire -4.5
- Carla Leite Over 16.5 points
Sun vs Fire first basket scorer: Bridget Carleton (+750)
Leite’s scoring makes her one of the favorites in the first basket markets tonight, but I see much more value in backing Carleton.
Not only can we be certain that Carleton is healthy heading into this game, but she’s getting nearly as much usage as Leite, taking 12.3 shots per game (compared to 12.5 for Leite).
With Carleton offering much better odds than popular options like Leite or Brittney Griner, she’s my pick to score first tonight.
Ed Scimia’s 2026 Transparency Record
- Best bet: 1-2, -1.17 units
- SGP: 0-3, -3.00 units
- First basket: 0-3, -3.00 units
Sun vs Fire odds
- Spread: Sun +4.5 | Fire -4.5
- Moneyline: Sun +150 | Fire -180
- Over/Under: Over 173.5 | Under 173.5
Sun vs Fire trend
The Over is a combined 6-1 in games played by Connecticut and Portland this season. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Sun vs Fire
Location
Moda Center, Portland, OR
Date
Monday, May 18, 2026
Tip-off
10:00 p.m. ET
TV
NBC Sports Boston, KPDX
Sun vs Fire latest injuries
Sun: L. Lacan (Out).
Fire: T. Oblak (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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