State Sen. Christine Drazan won the Republican primary race for governor Tuesday night, setting the stage for an acrimonious rematch between the Canby lawmaker and Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek this fall.
As of 9:10 p.m. Tuesday, partial results showed Drazan with roughly 43% of the vote, while Rep. Ed Diehl of Scio had received nearly 32% of the vote and former Trail Blazer Chris Dudley had about 16%.
Drazan’s victory marks her return to the forefront of Oregon Republican politics, just four years after she lost to Kotek in her first gubernatorial bid. Following that campaign, Drazan briefly left elected office then returned to the Oregon House, quickly retaking her position as caucus leader and later getting appointed to the Senate.
“This is a night to celebrate,” Drazan told supporters shortly after 9 p.m. at her election night party in Aurora. “This is a night for you. This is a night for our state. This is a night for our families. This is a night of hope.”
The most important test for Drazan, however, will come this fall as she vies to be Oregon’s first Republican governor in four decades.
Although Democrats running for office nationwide want to capitalize on the backlash against President Donald Trump, Drazan and other Republicans say they are hoping Kotek’s poor public approval ratings will prompt voters to deny her a second term.
The two Oregon politicians are now familiar opponents. They sparred over policy in the Legislature when Kotek served as House speaker, and just last year, Drazan led a successful effort during the legislative session to defeat a series of transportation tax hikes that Democrats fought hard to advance.
“Drazan represents a rematch against Gov. Kotek, where they can go toe-to-toe on some specific policy issues,” longtime political consultant Rebecca Tweed said. “There are a lot of policy issues front-of-mind for voters, and I think that’ll be the message: let’s put records against each other.”
In the Democratic primary for governor, Kotek did not face a notable challenger and easily advanced Tuesday with about 85% of the vote as of 8:30 p.m.
Heading into Tuesday night, Drazan was widely seen as the frontrunner. Multiple polls in April showed her holding a significant lead in the race and having the highest name recognition of the field. She also earned endorsements from top-ranking Republican lawmakers and influential industry groups.
But she received significant competition from Dudley and Diehl, who both jumped into the field in January.
Dudley brought the support of wealthy backers, including Nike co-founder Phil Knight, who gave his campaign $1 million, and a stated desire to unite Oregonians. Also, he ran for governor in 2010 and came closer to winning than any other Republican had in years.
Diehl, on the other hand, flexed his experience leading a successful referendum effort to put Democratic-backed transportation taxes in front of voters and received significant grassroots support carried over from that campaign.
In debates and other platforms, the leading candidates cited similar agendas they would seek to implement if elected. Drazan, Diehl and Dudley all said they would fight to lower taxes, cut regulations for businesses, improve the state’s education system and address Oregon’s behavioral health and homelessness crises.
Through ads, however, the candidates spent millions of dollars to send sharply different messages to Republican voters.
Drazan largely focused on criticizing Kotek and highlighting her own legislative record. Dudley said his perspective as a political outsider was exactly what Oregon needed, and Diehl pointed to his role leading the referendum campaign as evidence of his political capability.
Republican observers agreed Dudley was the most moderate candidate in the race. But all three frontrunners walked a fine line on Trump’s more controversial moves, particularly his extensive deportation campaign and his attempts to send federal agents into Portland last year, target mail-in voting and implement tariffs.
Those federal issues are expected to dominate the messaging this fall from Kotek, who has focused her campaign on her promise to push back against Trump and his policies that she views as misguided or infringing on Oregonians’ rights.
Drazan, Diehl and Dudley have largely avoided any strong criticism or praise of the Trump administration.
Additionally, the candidates mostly refrained from speaking on divisive social issues, with limited exceptions. In a debate hosted by the Oregon Republican Party, Drazan said she supported restricting transgender girls’ participation in girls’ sports and access to girls’ locker rooms. Dudley expressed a similar message in a TV advertisement that began airing last month.
The race remained fairly amicable, as candidates focused their criticism on Kotek and rarely challenged each other publicly. But there were a few jabs, such as when Diehl’s campaign called Drazan and Dudley “too chicken” in a press release after they declined to participate in a planned televised debate hosted by The Oregonian/OregonLive and KGW.
The general election will almost certainly bring more hostile attack ads — and massive campaign contributions — from various groups hoping to help the candidate of their choice get elected. Leading up to the November election four years ago, Kotek received $30 million in contributions while Drazan received $22.6 million. That race saw record spending for an Oregon governor’s contest.
Collectively, Drazan, Dudley and Diehl raised more than $6.5 million for their bids, campaign finance filings reported as of Tuesday evening showed.
This fall’s election will differ from the 2022 contest in several ways. First, it’s unlikely that another third-party candidate will amass as much support as former lawmaker Betsy Johnson did that year. Second, Trump’s unpopularity among Oregonians could hurt Republicans’ odds of securing enough support to win a statewide office.
Third, Kotek has now had nearly a full term to fulfill the promises that she ran on four years ago, and polling shows widespread dissatisfaction with her leadership so far. A recent survey commissioned by The Oregonian/OregonLive indicated that the majority of Portland metro area voters, the state’s Democratic stronghold, view Kotek unfavorably.
