Bullet point summary by AI
- Tarik Skubal, one of baseball’s top pitchers, is drawing serious trade interest as the Tigers flounder near the bottom of the standings.
- Rival executives see his value tied to a tight timeline and health questions after recent surgery.
- The next few weeks will test whether Detroit holds onto their star or becomes a major seller at the deadline.
With the Detroit Tigers losing 14 of their last 16 games and falling to 20-31 and last place in the American League Central, the chatter around a potential Tarik Skubal blockbuster ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline will only increase.
Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that chances of a trade are “rising.” So what might it take for a team to pry Skubal out of Detroit? I posed that question to three rival executives.
What do MLB executives think the Tigers can get for Tarik Sukbal?
Executive 1: “I don’t think anyone can answer that. I don’t think we have ever seen a pitcher this good coming off such a bizarre injury. He’s playing for a team that is trying to win themselves, so there are so many factors at play. If I had to answer, I’d say one top-100 prospect plus a top-15 and one more throw in.”
I asked if he would do it.
“The Padres will,” he responded.
Executive 2: “It would have to be a [Dave] Dombrowski or [AJ] Preller to get a top prospect. Everyone else treats it like Wall Street and asset value so my guess is a couple of top 10 prospects for a couple months of him. Or [Andrew] Friedman could go out and get him. He ups a team’s chances to win the World Series by a pretty big margin. You get two starts in that five-game series. Friedman gets him, that’s my prediction.”
Executive 3: “It’s so difficult to tell but I think it would start at one top-50 and another top-100 prospect. If it was a top-10 prospect in the game maybe it could be that plus a fringe top-100 guy also (plus probably 1-2 throw-in types. In scouting terms we would say probably two ‘B1’ Grade prospects as a start and then a couple ‘C’ grades also.
“Skubal is tough though as a two month rental with injury risk because it’s tough for a team to just come up with the close to $12-14 million he will be owed after a trade that isn’t budgeted for. Teams don’t typically have a bunch of extra cash laying around midseason so it takes an ownership group willing to find extra cash. If the Tigers pay down the salary the return could be better.”
A Tarik Skubal trade comes down to his recovery from surgery
As the executives noted, any potential Skubal trade hinges on his health. He underwent surgery two weeks ago to remove a loose body in his left elbow and was expected to miss two or three months. The surgery, which used a NanoScope to lessen the invasive nature of the procedure, was used to remove the loose body. And Skubal has progressed to the point of throwing bullpen sessions, with the star left-hander throwing a multi-inning session designed to simulate game action.
“It was a certain velocity I was trying to get to today,” Skubal told reporters on Thursday morning. “You have to prove to your body that it’s OK to throw hard again, especially [with] it being 15 days from surgery. Just kind of let your body know and your brain know you don’t have to have a governor, you’re good to go and throw and compete at a higher velocity. There’s a velocity number I was trying to hit. And I hit it, so it was a good day.”
When healthy, Skubal is arguably the best pitcher in baseball. The 29-year-old has won back-to-back Cy Young Awards and has had ERAs below 2.80 in each of the last four seasons. He was once again dominant before the injury, with a 2.70 ERA (2.11 FIP) in seven starts, and was strengthening his position to secure the richest free-agent contract for a starting pitcher in baseball history in the offseason.
If healthy, Skubal should beat New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million contract this winter. But the conversation now shifts to a potential midseason trade. The Tigers would prefer to compete and hang onto the star left-hander. But if their slide continues and they fall out of postseason contention, and he proves he’s fully healthy following surgery, he could be the most coveted player on the trade market in years.
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