MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 23.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:35 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a 3.58 ERA and 3.62 fielding independent with a career-high 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.3 walks per nine innings. Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen has a 3.19 ERA with 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings and now faces a Yankees lineup that leads the league in home scoring with six runs per game. The Yankees also hold the bullpen edge, ranking 11th in bullpen ERA at 3.48 while the Rays rank 19th at 4.33.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -125 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -141 and Total 8.3
2:20 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
Cubs starting pitcher Colin Rea owns a 4.98 ERA this season, but his 4.08 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs and 2.7 walks allowed per nine innings points toward positive regression. He also faces an Astros lineup averaging just over 2.6 runs per game in May, the lowest mark in the league. Astros starting pitcher Kai-Wai Teng owns a 2.61 ERA, but his 3.78 fielding independent is concerning, especially considering he has pitched more than three innings only once this season. That issue is magnified by the Astros owning the worst bullpen ERA in the league at 5.70.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -140
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -171
4:05 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Guardians starting pitcher Slade Cecconi has struggled this season, posting a 5.16 ERA with 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks allowed per nine innings. Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler has been recording fewer strikeouts than usual at 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings, his lowest rate since 2020, but still owns a 1.99 ERA. Cleveland entered the series averaging nearly 5.3 runs per game during the month of May, which leads the American League. Both bullpens are fairly average, with the Guardians ranking 13th in bullpen ERA at 3.80 and the Phillies ranking 15th at 4.04.
Pick: Guardians vs. Phillies Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.9
4:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Mets starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has been solid with a 3.31 ERA while allowing one home run and recording 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings. He also faces a Marlins lineup that entered the series ranked 28th in home runs on a per-at-bat basis. Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer is enjoying the best season of his career with a 2.35 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings while facing a Mets lineup that ranks 23rd in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Mets vs. Marlins Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.2
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Royals starting pitcher Stephen Kolek owns a 4.24 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed and 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a Royals lineup that hits much better at home than on the road, averaging just 3.1 runs per game away from home, which ranks last in the league, while ranking 12th in home scoring with nearly 4.7 runs per game. Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby owns a 3.45 ERA with 0.8 home runs allowed per nine innings, but he has a career-low 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and has historically struggled on the road, with a career 3.15 ERA at home compared to a 4.00 ERA away from home.
Pick: Royals Moneyline +120 and Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Royals +107 and Total 9.2
9:40 PM Eastern
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres
Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has gotten off to a solid start this season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.1 home runs allowed per nine innings, though his 4.02 fielding independent with three walks and 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings suggests some regression could be coming. Padres starting pitcher Lucas Giolito is making his second start of the season after allowing three runs in five innings against the Seattle Mariners in his season debut. He posted a 3.41 ERA last season with the Boston Red Sox and is backed by a bullpen that entered the series ranked seventh in ERA at 3.32, while the Athletics bullpen ranks 21st at 4.44.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -146
10:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has struggled this season, posting a 7.03 ERA with 1.7 home runs and 3.1 walks allowed per nine innings. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen is recording a career-low 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings and owns a 4.78 ERA overall, but he has been significantly better at home. His home ERA drops to 2.70 with one home run allowed per nine innings compared to a 7.25 ERA and 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings on the road.
Pick: Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 +130 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -1.5 -107 and Total 8.8
