The rumors are currently swirling about which film delegations have been called back to the Cannes closing ceremony this evening. The buzz is strong that Minotaur, Fjord, The Dreamed Adventure, Fatherland, La Bola Negra and La Gradiva are among those that have been told to return to the Palais.
Below, Deadline’s critics reflect on this year’s potential winners…
PETE HAMMOND
There are a number of ways the jury can go, and based on past experience it is almost impossible to predict the mood. We can suggest that, because Park Chan-Wook is leading the jury, the Palme d’Or might go to something he would prefer, but that isn’t always the case. Remember, Steven Spielberg’s jury chose Blue is the Warmest Color and that movie hardly reminded you of anything Spielberg had ever made. Critics this year seem highest on Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Hamaguchi Ryusuke’s All Of a Sudden. The black and white 82 minute Fatherland seems like a lock to get something. I’m not as sure, despite critical huzzahs, that the Ryusuke film will fly as high, especially since the near 220-minute film is awfully talky and feels like a lecture much of the time. I’m not sure it will work with this jury the way it worked with most critics (myself not included, though it had some things to admire).
Then again I really liked Asghar Farhadi’s Parallel Tales — but critics didn’t, so maybe they will prevail on that one. I would love to see a surprise there, but it’s probably not a good bet. Gentle Monster, with Léa Seydoux, and The Beloved, with Javier Bardem, had those stars giving near-career-best performances, so they may be hard to beat in the overcrowded acting categories, but you never know. There have been some obscure picks in the past, and Rami Malek in The Man I Love could be also in the mix, as could any number of women, including Scarlett Johansson in Paper Tiger, a movie from James Gray that marks his sixth time in competition so far with not a single prize to the man.
This week saw some real promising prospects bringing up the rear and charging towards the head of the pack, including former Palme d’Or winner Cristian Mungiu’s magnificent Fjord, and then, on Thursday night, the biggest ovations of the fest went to back-to-back movies about the gay experience: Spain’s epic La Bola Negra and Belgium’s intimate Coward. Both could well figure in the winning column. This is just too hard to predict, but I will anyway. Warning: Last year I think I went 2 for 7 so keep that in mind.
Pete Hammond’s Predictions
Palme d’Or: La Bola Negra, Javier Calvo & Javier Ambrossi
Grand Prize: Fjord Cristian Mungiu
Jury Prize: Fatherland Pawel Pawlikowski
Director: Lukas Dhont, Coward
Screenplay: Ira Sachs, The Man I Love
Actor: Javier Bardem , The Beloved
Actress: Lea Seydoux, Gentle Monster
- If they give any added awards I might suggest a prize for technical achievement to South Korea’s HOPE , perhaps a tip of the hat from the Jury President.
DAMON WISE
As the awarding hour draws closer, the jungle drums begin to deafen, but this year is a very tricky year to predict, much as it always is. For one thing, critics are never simpatico with the jury, and the fourth estate is already building a ring fence around the most austere European offerings, those being Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Minotaur. What the great bores of Europe often forget, however, is that that juries don’t think along the same lines as they do; indeed, festival director Thierry Fremaux often leave a trail of breadcrumbs for the jury president, in this case Park Chan-wook.
Thus Director Park will likely be mulling over the sprawling monster sci-fi Hope, by his countryman Na Hong-Jin, and possibly Léa Mysius’s thriller-romp The Birthday Party, which contains a lot of Park’s trademark black humor. But will the jury be feeling those films too? Like Pete, I think La Bola Negra has an open goal here; it’s too long, and a bit messy, but it has a big heart that has been missing from (most of) the Competition. So too does Lukas Dhont’s Coward, but in a festival over-stuffed with writer-directors, Dhont’s award could go to either one of his two young leads (he doesn’t half know how to pick them).
This year’s stealth bomb, for me at least, is Valeska Grisebach’s The Dreamed Adventure, which could easily take Director, Grand Prix and Best Actress. But the theme of the festival this year appears to be French politics, both in and out of Competition; if I had my druthers, I’d go for Gilles Lellouche in Moulin, but I think the French résistance film to get behind might be Emmanuel Marre’s A Man of His Time (but don’t tell anyone, or say it more than once). In a year light on studio fare, it seems very likely that the actress award will go to a French film, with Léa Seydoux (Gentle Monster) and Adèle Exarchopoulos (Garance) in the running. Personally, I’d like it to go to Ayase Haruka for Sheep in the Box.
How will the heavyweights fare? James Gray’s Paper Tiger was a major player in this year’s announcement (was it in or out?). Almodóvar doesn’t seem likely to win with Bitter Christmas either, not that he’ll mind with his name all over La Bola Negro. Returning Palme winner Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord, though, has plenty of admirers — but where will it land? As Pete says, Cannes is the hardest of all the awards to predict.
Damon Wise’s Predictions
Palme d’Or: La Bola Negra, Javier Calvo & Javier Ambrossi
Grand Prize: Minotaur, Andrey Zvyagintsev
Jury Prize: Fatherland, Pawel Pawlikowski
Director: The Dreamed Adventure, Valeska Grisebach
Screenplay: Notre Salut, Emmanuel Marre
Actor: Emmanuel Maccia, Coward
Actress: Ayase Haruka, Sheep in the Box
