Sean Barnard previews Sunday’s WNBA matchup between the Dallas Wings and the New York Liberty and provides his best pick.
There are three games of action across Sunday’s WNBA slate. Tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET, the Dallas Wings will take on the New York Liberty.
This is the first matchup between these teams this season, who have a combined 11 games under their belts. The Liberty are looking to return to the championship stage they reached in 2024, while the Wings are looking to take a step forward after their last-place finish in 2025.
The Liberty enter as 7.5-point home favorites with -325 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Wings are +260 underdogs, with the game total set at 177.5 points.
Let’s get into a pick and prediction for this Wings at Liberty matchup.
Wings at Liberty Preview
The Dallas Wings limped to a 10-34 record last season and made some major changes over the offseason. Jose Fernandez took over for his first season as head coach, and the Wings added Azzi Fudd with the first overall pick in the WNBA draft. Key players like Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, and Maddy Siegrist have returned, and Dallas added Jessica Shepard, Alana Smith, Odyssey Sims, and Alysha Clark in free agency.
There have been encouraging early results. The Wings are off to a 3-3 start to the season, playing at a much higher overall level than last year. They are also 3-3 against the spread, and the game total has remained under in four of the six games. Bueckers headlines the production, averaging 18.5 points and 5.5 assists through the opening six games. Ogunbowale adds 14.8 points of her own, while Shepard adds 12 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists per contest.
Albeit only a six-game sample size, Dallas currently ranks seventh in scoring with 87.5 points per game and second in the WNBA in offensive rating. The Wings have allowed 85.8 points per game, which ranks seventh in the league, and sit just outside the top 10 in defensive rating.
The New York Liberty won the 2024 WNBA championship but took a step back last season, when they never fully got healthy. The organization elected to fire head coach Sandy Brondello and make some notable roster changes. Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, and Jonquel Jones each returned as the stars. Satou Sabally, Rebecca Allen, and Raquel Carrera were brought in as key additions, while Natasha Cloud, Emma Meesseman, and Nyara Sabally left in the offseason. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton and Han Xu were also brought back to the team. The Liberty clearly do not view the roster as complete just yet, as the organization waived guard Julie Vanloo and released forward Alex Fowler following Thursday’s game.
On the floor, New York is off to a 3-2 start to the season. Ionescu has battled an ankle injury to start the season and has yet to suit up, but is expected to make her season debut in this matchup against the Wings. Sabally missed the first four games, but made her Liberty debut on Thursday, in which she finished with five points and four rebounds in just 16 minutes of action. Breanna Stewart headlines the production, averaging 22 points and nine rebounds. Marine Johannes, Jonquel Jones, and Pauline Astier each pitch in over 12 points per game, while Rebekah Gardner is also averaging in double figures. The Liberty are 2-3 against the spread, and the game total has gone over in four of their five games.
Through their first five games, the Liberty lead the WNBA in scoring at 94 points per game and are producing the best offensive rating. Defensively, opponents are scoring 87 points per game, which ranks eighth in the league. New York also ranks eighth in defensive rating.
Wings at Liberty Pick, Best Bet
Ionescu’s return will provide a jolt of life to this Liberty team as they begin to find their full form. New York has the most talented trio in the league, but there are some fair questions about how the entire roster will fit together and whether there is enough depth. But this is not a matchup in which these concerns should matter too much. There are certainly positive takeaways from the Wings’ start to the season, but they still look a ways away from the Liberty’s level as the youthful roster finds its stride.
While my lean is toward Liberty covering the 7.5-point spread at home, my best bet for this matchup is the game total to go over 177.5 points.
The Liberty have the best offense in the league, which should only further improve with Ionescu on the floor. They are averaging 94 points per game and have scored 100+ points twice already. Their 70-point outing against the Valkyries was uncharacteristic and a scoring effort they will be motivated to improve on.
They have a golden opportunity to do so against a Wings’ defense that has some major flaws. Dallas is giving up 85.8 points per game this season and has allowed as many as 104 points in a game already this year. This came against the Indiana Fever, and the Liberty have an even more dangerous overall attack. Dallas is especially vulnerable on the interior, and expect the Liberty front-court to feast in this matchup.
On the other side, the Wings are capable of putting up points in their own right. They have scored 92+ in all three of their wins this season and tallied as many as 107 points in a game. Dallas’ youth is evident, but the talent is there.
Expect the Liberty to lead the scoring charge and for the Wings to refuse to go down without a fight. This is a matchup where New York has a pathway to reaching triple-digits, and Dallas will not be too far behind them. The game total has gone over in four of the five games they have played this year, and expect this trend to continue in the Sunday afternoon matchup.
Best Bet: Game Total Over 177.5 Points (-105)
