LAS VEGAS — As the collection of media members shuffled out of a stunned Colorado Avalanche locker room Sunday night, the group went by the entrance to the Vegas Golden Knights room at T-Mobile Arena and something odd stuck out immediately.
The other half of the media corps that planned to go into the home dressing room was still waiting. Vegas’ postgame locker room access hadn’t even started yet.
It felt like a metaphor for everything that has happened in the past five days. Everything has gone wrong for the Avs so fast, and in such a stunning fashion. Everything about the situation, given what has transpired since mid-September, just felt so … surreal.
“You knew it was going to be a battle,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said. “To this point in the year at this start of the series, we’ve always been able to sort of make that next play, make one more play than the other team to try to carve out victories. To have it go the other way three games in a row … this is sports.
“It doesn’t shock me. It does surprise me a little bit that we haven’t been able to come up with it in the first three games. That’s the way it goes. Who knows? Maybe we’ll come up with it in the next three games.”
So here are the 2025-26 Avalanche. For more than six months, the Avs set the pace in the NHL. Then it unraveled in fewer than six days.
Now they are down 3-0 in the Western Conference Final to the surging Golden Knights. Four teams in NHL history have erased a 3-0 series deficit to win a series, including two in the past 50 years.
What has gone wrong? A lot of things, all at once. Some large, some small, but it all adds up to this surreal, stunning situation.
Carter Hart (79) of the Vegas Golden Knights makes a save against the Colorado Avalanche during the second period of Game 3 of the NHL Western Conference Final at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, May 24, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
1. Scott Wedgewood has been one of the NHL’s great stories this year. The rise of The Lumberyard has delighted Avs fans.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it. Carter Hart has outplayed Wedgewood through the first three games of this series. Hart’s goals saved above expected has been better in all three games. For the series, Hart is plus-3.0, while Wedgewood is minus-1.66.
There can be some variance in that, especially with such a small sample. Other Avs issues are contributing to Wedgewood’s plight. But with all the chatter from both sides about how tight the series has been, how even the chances have been, and how opportunistic Vegas has been while Colorado has not, the easiest solution to that is for Colorado’s goaltending to be better.
For the playoffs, here are the goals saved above expected for each team still participating in this tournament, per MoneyPuck:
Montreal is at 11.3, Carolina is at 8.7, Vegas is at 7.2 and Colorado is at 0.1. Wedgewood (0.4) and Mackenzie Blackwood (-0.3) have just been … fine. If everything else was clicking for the Avs, the narrative would be that the Lumberyard has made just enough timely saves to make it work.
Everything else is not fine. One of the members of The Lumberyard needs to get hot. That’s the simplest way back into this series.
Cale Makar (8) of the Colorado Avalanche skates as Jack Eichel (9) of the Vegas Golden Knights defends during the third period of the Golden Knights’ 5-3 win in Game 3 of the NHL Western Conference Final at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Vegas now leads the series 3-0. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
2. This is the only issue on the list that is partly out of the Avs’ control. They are a banged-up club now. The injuries might be too much. The Minnesota Wild players are not playing hockey right now and still have a what-if nagging at them about injuries. The Avs might feel that way soon, too.
The obvious ones are Nathan MacKinnon and Valeri Nichushkin, who were injured in Game 3. No updates on them from Bednar the day before Game 4. But Colorado’s injury issues likely go far beyond those two.
We know Cale Makar is playing through injury after he couldn’t dress in Games 1 and 2. Injury information is akin to classified state secrets during the playoffs, but the minutes played in a critical Game 3 told part of the story.
Sam Malinski, who the club desperately needed more from with Makar out, has struggled at times against Vegas after missing the end of the Minnesota series. He played 12:57 in Game 3. It’s difficult to imagine that number would be so low if he were healthy.
Artturi Lehkonen, a longtime playoff killer, has no points and just five shots on goal in this series. He missed the same two games that Malinski did. When MacKinnon and Nichushkin were both in various states of availability Sunday night, Lehkonen played less than Martin Necas, Brock Nelson, Gabe Landeskog, and Nazem Kadri. It’s hard to imagine that happening if he were healthy.
It’s possible that the Avs are just too hurt in this series. It’s not the only problem, but it’s a significant one.
Nazem Kadri (91) of the Colorado Avalanche fans a shot as Brayden McNabb (3) of the Vegas Golden Knights defends during the first period of Game 3 of the NHL Western Conference Final at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, May 24, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
3. Vegas is still doing what Dallas has done at times in the past couple of postseasons. A lot of the numbers under the hood are either fine or better for the Avalanche. A consistent theme is the Avs are not far off, just a play here, a goal or a save there. That’s true, which again points back to Hart making one more important save than Wedgewood, but also why the Avs might not be converting that one extra chance they need.
Colorado has produced 58.97% of the shot attempts in this series. The Avs have 59.54% of the scoring chances, per Natural Stat Trick. But not all chances are created equal. Vegas has produced 53.06% of the expected goals and 12 of the 18 actual goals. It’s 9 out of 15 if we exclude the three empty netters.
Vegas has still been able to keep Colorado to the outside, particularly in key parts of these games. The Avs had one high-danger scoring chance at 5-on-5 in the third period Sunday night. That was one more than the third period in Game 2.
The volume would translate, with one more good bounce or one less-than-stellar night from Hart. It hasn’t. Better quality on the chances created is another path to breathing life into a potential comeback.
The power play isn’t going to get its own spot on this list, but it can obviously be better as well.
Martin Necas (88) of the Colorado Avalanche waits for a face off against the Vegas Golden Knights during the first period of Game 3 of the NHL Western Conference Final at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, May 24, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
4A. A week ago, Necas was fresh off a couple of great games against Minnesota and had 11 points in nine games — second most on the Avs. Three games later, he’s still second on the team in points, but the number next to that is now a far easier target for people who are searching for what’s gone wrong.
Necas had 38 goals in the regular season. He has one in the playoffs. If he were still racking up assists and making great plays happen like at the end of the Minnesota series, one goal wouldn’t be an issue. Jack Eichel has two goals in this postseason.
But three quiet offensive games, with just four shots on goal at 5-on-5 when the team is struggling to create offense, make Necas’ lack of goals an easy target.
“Yeah, I don’t honestly look at media at all,” Necas said. “So I don’t know what’s going on over there. Obviously, I want to be scoring more, more goals for sure for the team. It starts with tomorrow.”
Brock Nelson (11) of the Colorado Avalanche jaws with Nic Dowd (26) of the Vegas Golden Knights during the first period of Game 3 of the NHL Western Conference Final at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Sunday, May 24, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
4B. It’s a similar story for Nelson — 33 goals in the regular season, two in the playoffs. But he also has only one assist, not 11 like Necas. Nelson hit the crossbar on a great chance in Game 3, but that doesn’t count as a shot on goal and he’s only got one in the past two games combined.
Given the other guys who might not be available or are trying to play through injuries, the two guys who combined for 71 goals this year will need a big moment or three. That’s another way the Avs could find some footing in this series.
“I think even more frustrating, just given how the games kind of played out, too,” Nelson said of his lack of production. “Have to just continue to believe that you’re going to get more looks, capitalize on it, be a difference maker and turn it (around).
“I think it’s just having that belief individually for myself to step up, be more of an impact offensively. And I think as a group the belief that we were one of the best teams in league all year, we’re capable of coming back and obviously just starts with one game.”
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