Welcome to Week Nine of our Patience or Panic series! Every week, we perform an autopsy on three underperforming players to see if there’s any hope of resuscitation. Or is it time to pull the plug?
Manny Machado, 3B, San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres third baseman Manny Machado owes Fernando Tatis Jr. Why, pray tell? Because the latter’s heinous start distracts everyone from the former’s equally surprising struggles. No, seriously. If not for Tatis’s power suddenly disappearing, Machado might be the Padres problem child. But with things the way they are, he’s not even on anyone’s radar. So, let’s put him ours.
Firstly, let’s voice those struggles. Currently, Machado is hitting .174/.271/.337 with a .608 OPS and 75 wRC+. Tatis might not be hitting much, and he’s certainly not hitting for power. Machado, though, just isn’t hitting. At all. As far as run production goes, he has just eight home runs and 25 RBIs. And as for his other accomplishments, they include five doubles, 48 strikeouts, and only 60 total bases. It’s rough.
In fact, rough doesn’t describe it. So here’s some context. Out of 170 qualified hitters, Machado is 153rd in OPS, 150th in wRC+, and 153rd in wOBA. He has been, bar none, one of the worst hitters and most disappointing players in the sport. The only reason no one acknowledges it is: Machado leads the team in RBI, Tatis is doing whatever he’s doing, and the Padres, despite the play of their two highest-paid players, are 31-21.
Context and arguments aside, what’s wrong with Machado? The simple answer is he’s making more weak contact than ever. Going into this season, Machado’s highest Weak% was 5.0 back in 2017. Conversely, his lowest was 1.5% in 2019. Last season, he made weak contact 1.6%, and the season before that, 1.7%. There was almost always something on his swings. This season, Machado is making weak contact 6.1% of the time. It’s a staggering rise. And it’s one unbefitting of Machado’s career profile.
It’s partly why Machado’s power stats are all down. His 6.8 Barrel% is a career low, as is his 4.4 Barrel/PA. His HardHit% is the lowest it’s been since 2018, his exit velocities are down, and so on. He can still destroy balls. That much is evident in a 3.8 HR%, which is almost identical to last year’s 4.0%. But he can’t do so with any regularity. It happens once in a blue moon.
All that said, some part of this is bad luck. This shows most notably in Machado’s .226 expected batting average. Contrast that to his current .176 average, and you see the discrepancy. This doesn’t absolve Machado, nor does it assuage fears. Yet it’s the 14th-biggest difference between batting average and expected batting average in baseball. So, yes, to some extent, Machado is unlucky.
And to some extent, he’s underperforming severely. One area of particular interest is Machado’s bat speed. In 2023 and 2024, Machado’s bat speed finished in the 96th and 90th percentile, respectively. He could catch up to anything. Last year, it finished in the 84th percentile, another decline. This season, it’s in the 72nd percentile, another significant drop. Perhaps because of this, Machado can’t catch up to fastballs. He’s hitting .190 against them with 21 strikeouts. He’s having the most success against offspeed pitches. Right now, Machado is only catching up to the pitches slow enough for him to hit.
Pitchers are aware of that and are punishing him for it. Machado’s seeing 5% more fastballs and 3.5% fewer offspeed pitches. They are targeting him. And right now, Machado, like Apollo Creed, another aging veteran still trying to hang around, can’t get off the mat.
The Verdict: Don’t throw the towel yet. Lost amidst Machado and Tatis’ individual failings is the organization’s. San Diego is 27th in team wRC+, 29th in team OPS, and 30th in team batting average. This is a systemic problem.
Sal Frelick, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have a type: Slight, versatile, undervalued, and scrappy players with a chip on their shoulders. They shop in the bargain bins and entertain those whom others won’t. At 5’9 and capable of playing all three outfield spots, Sal Frelick fits that mold. What he doesn’t do, however, is hit.
At least not this season. Frelick came into 2026 after a superb 2025. In 142 games, Frelick hit .288/.351/.405 with 12 home runs, 63 RBIs, 19 steals, a career-best .756 OPS, and a 114 wRC+. A drink-stirrer. A tone-setter. He was integral to Milwaukee’s NL-best 97 wins. This season, they’ve won without him. Through 49 games, Frelick is hitting .217/.287/.298 with a .585 OPS and a 67 wRC+. It’s night and day.
For some context on that difference, consider this: Frelick’s .585 OPS is 12th-worst in baseball. The only players worse than him are collectively agreed upon as some of the worst bats in the game this season: Caleb Durbin, Cedric Mullins, Trevor Story, and Marcus Semien — more on him later. That is the company Frelick suddenly and shockingly keeps.
Analytically, this isn’t a surprise. Look at Frelick’s data. He’s never profiled as a stereotypical successful hitter. Heck, if he were, he probably wouldn’t fit the Brewers. A low slug, low power, and slow bat. That’s his profile. And it’s who he’s always been. Frelick’s career average exit velocity is 84.5. That would be roughly a first-percentile finish. He’s never hit the ball hard, and his 25.5 HardHit% this season is somehow better than his career average. Simply, it’s not in his nature. He’s a slap, speed-hitter. So his low average and low slug this year shouldn’t raise any alarms. It befits a shrug at best.
Where Frelick makes his money is with his ability to make contact and miss balls. He won’t barrel up a ball, but he will square them frequently. Throughout his three full seasons, he’s finished in the 92nd, 84th, and 91st percentile in Squared-Up%. He can put the screws to the ball. He also avoids putting the axe over his head. He doesn’t strike out, doesn’t chase, doesn’t whiff. If there were an angel on one of Frelick’s shoulders and a devil on the other, the man in red would go unheard.
All this invites the central quandary: If Frelick is the same player as he was a season ago, why isn’t he successful?
One central data point sticks out. Pitchers know who Frelick is. They know he’s a slow bat. Right now, Frelick is seeing fastballs 67.8% of the time. More specifically, he’s seeing four-seamers 42.7% of the time, sixth-most in all of baseball. And for good reason. Frelick is hitting .164 and slugging .213 against four-seamers. He’s not getting unlucky, either, with a .190 expected batting average and a .232 expected slug. Maybe the biggest condemnation is this: Frelick’s -6 run value on four-seamers is fourth-worst in baseball.
It’s shocking. Because this isn’t an untapped exploit for opponents. Last season, Frelick hit .297 with a +3 run value and a .443 slugging percentage against four-seamers. It’s not as if he doesn’t know how to handle heat. He does. He’s proven as much throughout his career. Yet this season, he finds himself engulfed.
The Verdict: Stay away. More than anything, one stat should give pause. Frelick is making solid contact 0.7% of the time. Frelick doesn’t need to mash. But if he’s not even making good wood despite elite squared-up numbers, where is the hope?
Marcus Semien, 2B, New York Mets
Another week, another Met facing a professional existential crisis. This time, it’s second baseman Marcus Semien.
Unlike previous players at Queens’ crossroads, Semien has neither youth nor recent quality play on his side. He is 35 and has not had an .800 OPS in a season since 2023. That’s not changing this season. Thus far, Semien is hitting .214/.263/.297 with a .560 OPS and a 65 wRC+. All while playing every single game. And that is one of the only bright spots in Semien’s game right now. He’s always available. That said, he doesn’t make his presence felt in a good way.
Well, maybe that’s hyperbolic. Semien has strong clutch numbers. With runners in scoring position, Semien is hitting .348/.377/.435 with an .812 OPS, four doubles, and 13 RBIs. For a team starved for offense, Semien has oddly supplied some when it matters most. And if there’s a path back toward being a capable player, it’s through this approach. It’s remembering that somewhere, a good, dependable ballplayer still exists inside his body.
Sadly, that player is seldom seen. It largely has to do with the fact that there’s nothing good in Semien’s numbers. His best stat is a 74th percentile finish in Squared-Up%. The second-best is a 62nd percentile rank in Whiff%. From there, it only gets worse. His bat is slow, he doesn’t hit the ball hard, and his average exit velocities are down. He doesn’t add value as a walker, either, touting a career-worst 6.3 BB%.
Semien does have some encouraging numbers. He is hitting fastballs and offspeed pitches well, sporting a a .265 and .270 average against them, respectively. He can still time them up. Pitchers, however, have countered by giving him more breakers than ever. They’ve thrown them a career-high 38.1% of the time, up 6.3% from last season. It’s here that Semien is getting slaughtered. Against breakers, he’s hitting .139 with a .139 slugging percentage. Woof. Semien has a Kryptonite, and it’s killing him.
The Verdict: Sell. There’s no reason to belabor the point. Semien has regressed year by year. Right now, he’s at his nadir. The odds of him coming back, on this team, where nothing goes right and has gone right, are near zero.
