As we start our summer journey, June may still carry traces of spring DNA across parts of the country, especially from southern Ontario through Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Further north and west, including parts of northern Ontario, the early-summer warm signal is growing stronger by the day.
Below is a more detailed look at what we can expect across the country, including the factors that will come into play in addition to El Niño. We’ve also included an FAQ section that may answer some of your questions as we approach the official start to summer.
British Columbia
Summer personality: Warm, confident, but not reckless
Fast start, earlier fade?
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Strong start to summer with elevated heat and wildfire concerns
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Transient heat waves remain likely, though this does not appear to be a prolonged ‘heat dome’ summer
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Periodic pattern breakdowns should provide some relief
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B.C. sits within the country’s strongest warmth signal
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But unlike recent years, summer may fade earlier heading into September
Alberta
Summer personality: Warm, but watchful
Strong start, moisture concerns
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Alberta also sits within the stronger warmth signal, especially early in the season
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Periods of significant heat are likely, but timely pattern breaks could help prevent drought from escalating
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June moisture will be key, as missing out on that critical rainfall would raise concerns about drought in July and August
SEE ALSO: When is the hottest stretch of the year in your corner of Canada?
Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Northern Ontario
Summer personality: Changeable and reactive
A tug-of-war
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Summer is forecast to start strong with above-seasonal warmth in June
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Periods of heat are expected, but interruptions should help limit widespread drought escalation
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Warmth is more likely to dominate in the west, while the cooler signal is stronger further east
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June rainfall will be critical. It is the wettest month of the year for much of the Prairies, and missing out on that rainfall would have drought implications for July and August
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The pattern may lock in briefly before shifting again
RELATED: Latest forecast warns a very strong El Niño could emerge soon
Southern Ontario
Summer personality: Noncommittal and inconsistent
The on-again, off-again summer
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Heat will build at times, but interruptions are expected throughout the season
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Final temperatures may finish surprisingly close to the seasonal mark overall
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More days with showers and thunderstorms are expected, though that does not mean a washout, but it does mean more frequent interruptions
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Cooler-than-normal Great Lakes may create early-summer shoreline chills
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One hot weekend won’t necessarily mean summer weather is here to stay
DON’T MISS: How lake breezes shape your weather
Quebec
Summer personality: Changeable
The back-and-forth summer
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Changeable summer is anticipated, with very warm stretches at times, but enough cooler interruptions to keep final temperatures close to seasonal
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Western and southern Quebec may tip slightly below seasonal, while eastern Quebec has a better chance to finish near seasonal
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Showers and thunderstorms should be more frequent than usual, but that does not mean a washout summer
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Wildfire and air quality risk appear lower than recent summers, though any hot and dry stretch could spike the fire danger
The Maritimes (Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and P.E.I.)
Summer personality: Quietly pleasant
Sneaky summer potential
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Near-seasonal temperatures are expected overall
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Atlantic Canada could see stretches of solid summer warmth if the trough pulls farther west toward the Great Lakes or Prairies
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Less persistent dryness than recent summers is expected
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Hurricane activity will likely be quieter overall, but impactful storms remain possible
Newfoundland and Labrador
Summer personality: Sluggish start, steady finish
The late-blooming summer
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A near-seasonal summer is expected, with temperatures and precipitation likely finishing close to normal
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June will start slower than many Newfoundlanders would like, with below-seasonal stretches delaying summer weather
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A less active Atlantic hurricane season is expected, but Newfoundland should not let its guard down, as it only takes one post-tropical system or a close approach to create major impacts
Northern Canada
Summer personality: Moody and contrasting
Contrasting extremes
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Western portions of the territories are expected to trend warmer than normal, raising drought, wildfire, and smoke concerns in Yukon and the Northwest Territories
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Farther east, Nunavut could trend cooler than seasonal overall
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Smoke concerns may fluctuate depending on fire activity
THE BATTLE FOR SUMMER
Key message: El Niño isn’t acting alone this time
Key message: The trough may decide Canada’s summer. The challenge is that it will be a moving target: oscillating, stretching, and occasionally anchoring in place
A faster west-to-east flow lowers the odds of long-lasting, continent-wide extremes, but cut-off highs and lows can still detach from the main jet stream and create impactful stretches of heat.
We forecast the season and try to anticipate the broad patterns and themes, not the individual weekends and specific weather patterns ahead. We know one bad long weekend can reshape the reputation of an entire summer.
THE BIG SUMMER QUESTIONS
Q: Will summer really lock in this year?
A: Blocking patterns are what typically create prolonged heat, drought, and persistent extremes. With El Niño, you get fewer of these patterns, a stronger jet and more west-to-east progression, favouring more simmer than full-on nationwide sizzle.
Q: Why doesn’t this summer look like recent summers?
A: This summer doesn’t appear to have the fingerprints of a coast-to-coast, locked-in heat dome year. A developing El Niño typically supports a stronger jet stream and more movement in the atmosphere, reducing the risk of prolonged extreme heat events.
