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Gap between Tigers and White Sox is huge — and not the way we expected

This marks the first time the Tigers and White Sox have started a series in which Chicago had the better record since September 2022.

Chicago — It’s been a really long time since both the White Sox and Tigers were contending for an American League Central championship, and nobody expected that would be the case in 2026, either.

Of course, both of them aren’t contending. Only the White Sox are — a stunning reversal of fortunes, given Detroit is coming off back-to-back postseason appearances and is spending a franchise record on player payroll, while Chicago is just two years removed from setting a modern-day major-league record for losses in a season.

The White Sox and Tigers are meeting for the first time this season in a three-game series at Rate Field, Friday through Sunday. The White Sox start the series on the South Side 29-27, three games back of the Cleveland Guardians in the division, while the free-falling Tigers are 22-35, an unfathomable 10½ games back of first place.

“The numbers don’t look pretty, the record doesn’t look pretty, and the production doesn’t look pretty,” Tigers manager AJ Hinch said Wednesday, following a 7-1 loss to the lowly Angels, who handed Detroit yet another series loss — its seventh in a row.

It doesn’t really matter who the opponent has been for the Tigers, especially this month. They’re not beating anybody. With the loss to the Angels on Thursday, the Tigers have now lost seven series this season to teams that are under .500 this season, and three series to teams that are currently in last place. They’ve also lost a series to the Royals, who are just a half-game ahead of the Tigers in the AL Central.

The Tigers are 6-19 in May, beset by injuries, most notably to ace Tarik Skubal, and an offense that showed its warts during the late-2025 slide and wasn’t addressed this winter. The White Sox are 15-10 this month, securing their first winning month since May 2023.

They have been buoyed by the Munetaka Murakami Experience. Murakami, the steal of the offseason for two years and $34 million, has 20 home runs in his first 56 major-league games. The Tigers have 49 home runs as a team. Murakami, who has the most homers by an MLB rookie before June since 1901, is the betting favorite to win the AL rookie-of-the-year award, at +120 odds (bet $100 to win $120), according to DraftKings. He has slowly been widening his lead over the second-favorite, Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle, who is +180.

It’s not just been Murakami, though. Former first-round pick Colson Montgomery has built upon the promise he showed in the slugging department late in 2025; Sam Antonacci, a former fifth-round pick, is coming into his own; Davis Martin, a former 14th-round pick, is pitching like an ace; and Chris Getz acquisitions Chase Meidroth and Tristan Peters are among those off to hot starts.

“Our floor has been raised, certainly, and the expectation for what it looks like every day should be elevated from where it was last year, obviously,” White Sox manager Will Venable told reporters Thursday, following a 6-2 victory over the Twins, which sealed Chicago’s winning month, after it was 13-13 during March/April. “Certainly, two months of playing .500 baseball or better is a good indication that we’re headed in the right direction.”

What this all means for the long-term for these two AL Central rivals — who haven’t finished first and second in the division since 2012 — remains to be seen, though the trends are clear.

This is the first time the Tigers and White Sox have started a series in which the White Sox have the better record since late September 2022. The Tigers are closing in on their worst month, record-wise, since 2019.

Interestingly, the teams’ odds to make the postseason are either pretty close or not close at all, depending on which metric you want to trust. For instance, Fangraphs currently has the White Sox odds of making the playoffs (for the first time 2021) at just 14.2%. That’s still behind the Tigers’ Fangraphs’ odds of 17.6%. Fangraphs has the White Sox projected to win 76 games and the Tigers projected to win 77 games. Baseball-Reference.com, meanwhile, gives the White Sox a 46.4% chance to make the playoffs, and it gives the Tigers just a 3.3% chance.

In his 2026 season preview, one ESPN writer, Bradford Doolittle, gave the Tigers a 70% chance of making the postseason and the White Sox a 0% chance of making the playoffs. Not zero-point-something. Zero. How quickly things have changed. It’s not even June yet, and the White Sox, with a payroll less than half of the Tigers’, are on the rise and opening some eyes, while the Tigers appear to already be dead and buried.

“The league doesn’t care,” Hinch said Thursday, “and our next opponent doesn’t care.”

Tigers at White Sox

First pitch: 2:10 p.m. Saturday, Rate Field, Chicago

TV/radio: Detroit SportsNet/97.1 FM

Scouting report

LHP Framber Valdez (2-3, 4.28), Tigers: It’s been an up-and-down May for the Tigers’ big offseason splash, as he’s posted a 6.10 ERA over four starts — two of which have been pretty good, one of which was so-so, and one of which was an absolute debacle, ending in a beanball and a subsequent suspension. Last time out was darn good, as he allowed one run on two hits in six innings against the Orioles.

LHP Anthony Kay (4-1, 3.96), White Sox: He’s proven a pretty good find for White Sox GM Chris Getz, with a solid start to his stint on the South Side after two years pitching in Japan. In 11 games (nine starts), he hasn’t been overpowering, but he’s been effective enough. The biggest issue has been command. He’s walked 23 in 52.1 innings, and he’s also hit a league-leading 10 batters.

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