A view of a densely populated residential district in Istanbul, Türkiye. (Adobe Stock Photo)
May 30, 2026 05:15 AM GMT+03:00
Turkish geologist Naci Gorur has warned that Istanbul remains under a significant earthquake threat. This warning comes despite revised scientific estimates lowering the probability of a major quake within 30 years to 48% from 62% following the 1999 Marmara disaster.
“Building earthquake-resistant cities is not a choice but a necessity for survival,” Gorur said, stressing that the revised estimate should not be mistaken for a reduction in the underlying risk.
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Decades of warnings in Istanbul
In the aftermath of the 1999 Izmit earthquake, which killed more than 17,000 people and devastated northwestern Türkiye, a landmark study led by U.S. geophysicist Tom Parsons estimated a 62% probability of strong shaking in Istanbul within the following 30 years.
Subsequent research involving Parsons revised those forecasts using new seismic data and improved fault models. A widely cited 2016 study found that some key segments of the Marmara fault system carried rupture probabilities of up to 48% over the next 30 years, while estimating a 47% chance of a magnitude 7.3 or larger earthquake affecting the Istanbul region during the same period.
Gorur argued that public debate should center on preparedness rather than attempts to predict the exact timing of future earthquakes.
“We should not be talking about when an earthquake will happen. We should be talking about how people will survive,” he told Turkish news outlet Nefes, adding that preventing deaths must remain the primary objective.
A general view of dense urban landscape in Istanbul, Türkiye. (Adobe Stock Photo)
Race against next big quake
Istanbul’s aging housing stock remains a major concern as the city braces for a potential future earthquake, with government assessments estimating that around 600,000 homes could face immediate collapse in a major seismic event.
The threat returned to the spotlight after a magnitude 6.2 earthquake struck the Sea of Marmara on April 23, 2025, triggering widespread panic across Istanbul. More than 230 people were injured, most while attempting to flee buildings, although authorities reported no major structural collapses.
In response, authorities have stepped up urban transformation efforts over the past two decades, focusing on replacing or reinforcing vulnerable structures.
Government figures show that nearly 925,000 housing units have been renewed across Istanbul during that period, while work continues on more than 263,000 additional units.
May 30, 2026 05:15 AM GMT+03:00
