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NBA’s new draft-lottery system will balance out the odds, disincentivize tanking

That encouraged the Board of Governors to meet immediately after the regular season. The new plan increases the lottery teams from 14 to 16 and each will receive three, two, or one lottery balls depending on their record.

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The teams with the three worst records have a combined 15.4 percent chance at a top-three pick as opposed to 40.1 percent in previous drafts. The teams with the three worst records have a 61 percent chance at a top-10 pick and a 39 percent shot at picks No. 11 and 12.

The remaining seven non-playoff teams have a combined 24.1 percent chance at a top-three pick and 39 percent at a top-five pick. An additional wrinkle is teams that finish with the seventh and eighth playoff seeds are also lottery eligible and those teams have a combined 8.7 percent chance at a top-three pick.

Also, teams will not be allowed to pick No. 1 overall for consecutive seasons or pick in the top five in three consecutive drafts. The plan is in place for at least three seasons, will be reviewed in 2029.

Silver was reluctant to make this change but the blatancy of tanking began to hurt the on-court product and damage the credibility of the league.

“There was a tone set by Adam coming out of our December board meeting with focus that we had to do something here,” league operations president Byron Spruell said. “We didn’t necessarily know it was going to be this outcome because of the journey that we’ve been on, but it was clear he set a nice tone for us to really attack this in an appropriate way. Were there a few more vocal governors than not? That’s the case on any issue. You can definitely think of the governors owning this as an issue. We followed the process to get to the right answers. Definitely a few owners understanding how corrosive tanking can be to our organizations and the game itself, integrity being a big part of that.”

The plan was approved by 29 of the NBA governors. The one nay vote came from the Grizzlies, who were the victims of unintentional friendly fire with the plan because of their trade of Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Jazz for a 2027 first-round pick. Because the Jazz are picking second this year and selected fifth in 2025, the Jazz are not allowed to pick in the top five in 2027.

Despite the fact that the pick is Memphis’s through trade, it is still officially Utah’s and the league decided not to grandfather the previous rule, thus preventing the Grizzlies from a top-five pick. Because of the new system, Utah could have the 10th-worst record — which would be a marked improvement — and still have a 41.1 percent chance at a top-five pick. Memphis is the major loser with this new system.

The Wizards won this year’s draft lottery after finishing a league-worst 17-65.Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

If the Grizzlies do land a top-five pick next year, it will be moved to sixth.

“If you were to grandfather in already traded picks, it essentially becomes windfall for the teams that owns those picks,” said Evan Wasch, the NBA’s executive vice president of strategy and growth. “Because unlike other picks, they would be subject to potential benefits or upside of the restrictions but none of the downside.”

Wasch said, for example, if the lottery shaped up next year as it did this year, with Washington winning the top pick, the Wizards would not be able to draft first, thus catapulting the Jazz’s pick (going to Memphis) to No. 1. So the Grizzlies would benefit from the Wizards being unable to draft first, so the league wanted to avoid those possible loopholes. The other 29 teams benefit, but the Grizzlies don’t.

While tanking was obvious and blatant as the season progressed, those teams would never publicly admit they were tanking. Injuries, load management, and development were used as excuses for purposely losing. But a revised lottery system that was overwhelmingly approved meant that many owners collectively agreed that tanking was an issue. So how did the NBA get tanking teams to actually admit they were tanking?

“We knew it was an overall issue that we had to deal with at some level and maybe even the word being ‘overcorrected’ is coming up,” Spruell said. “We felt like we had to do something strong, in which case we got a lot of support from the Mat Ishbia’s [outspoken Suns governor] of the world and we heard from some of the lower teams, particularly some of the smaller-market teams. On the whole, thinking about the current media deals, bringing back competitive nature to it, bringing back to the real force of the league and what we stand for, that’s the part there people bought in and said, ‘OK we get it, if you put together the right package. On the board for the league’s purpose we need all to jump onboard.’

“Whether you’re at the extreme area of where Mat was or whether you’re one of the lower teams that they would say didn’t necessarily tank but were unfortunate this year to injury or otherwise, but there was certainly some activity going on that felt like tanking. The teams have really bought into this and that’s what we needed.”

All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell reached the conference finals for the first time, but his Cavaliers were swept by the Knicks.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff

CLEVELAND ROCKED

Sifting through the rubble of Cavaliers

When the Cavaliers made the risky move of acquiring seasoned but flawed point guard James Harden from the Clippers for often-injured Darius Garland, the plan was for the club to contend immediately. The Cavaliers could never push the Celtics and Pistons for the Eastern Conference’s top two seeds and eventually finished fourth, a testament to their inconsistency.

After two emotional seven-game series against the Raptors and Pistons, the Cavaliers were completely overwhelmed and humiliated in the conference finals by the Knicks in a four-game sweep. After blowing a 22-point fourth-quarter lead in Game 1, the Cavaliers had no fight left. They were pummeled by the streaking Knicks and blown out at home in the close-out game.

While Cleveland reached the East finals for the first time since LeBron James was king of the city, getting swept despite the presence of Harden, guard Donovan Mitchell, big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, and a solid bench was a downer to a solid season.

The Cavaliers were never considered serious contenders in the East and the Knicks proved that. The teams were light years apart as New York’s teamwork, shot making, and relentlessness humbled the frustrated Cavaliers.

Kenny Atkinson, who did not have a good series in his coaching matchup against Mike Brown and made excuses for why the Cavaliers melted in key moments, said fatigue was a factor. Cleveland failed to close out both of its previous series in Game 6.

“I’ve been there a long time and seen this before and you have to take advantage of those opportunities,” Atkinson said. “The way the scheduling goes on in the league, you get on a hectic schedule. The density and frequency of the games, never had two days’ rest, it played a part in it. I’m not going to say that’s the reason we lost. We would have had a better chance if we take care of business in those Games 6s.”

The Cavaliers were a putrid 28.9 percent from the 3-point line in the series and the quartet of Mobley, Max Strus, Sam Merrill, and Harden were a combined 25 for 95 from beyond the arc. Cleveland needed the three to compete and nothing worked.

“If I have two regrets, I’m disappointed for the group,” Atkinson said. “From a coaching standpoint, normally you’d say I wish we had this player-wise or roster-wise. I can’t say that. Ownership gifted us with a wonderful roster. I feel bad for the group because you want to fulfill your expectations. That’s disappointing.

“We took a step. This is how this goes. You have to keep climbing. We fell short. There’s no bigger motivator to get to the next level.”

Mitchell turned in another All-Star regular season and reached the conference finals for the first time. But unlike Jalen Brunson, who carried the Knicks in stretches, he couldn’t do the same for Cleveland.

The question is whether Mitchell is a top option on a championship team. This series did not help that assertion but he received kudos from Atkinson.

“He’s the No. 1 reason we went to the conference finals,” Atkinson said. “There’s a mental-toughness growth there, he took it to another level, led even better than he did before. Adapted to a new roster. He was a big-time growth this year from a leadership standpoint.”

But does this team have a chance for growth? Harden is 36, and once again was exploited on defense and didn’t score efficiently enough to compensate for his shortcomings. Mobley disappeared at times, while Allen has proven to be a quality big man but not a front-line option.

What crushed the Cavaliers was the lack of shooting production from Merrill and Strus, who got their fair share of good looks.

“There are barriers and we jumped a barrier,” Atkinson said. “It’s not easy to do in a really competitive East. It’s a reach to say if we would have won Game 1 it would have changed the series. Pretty much all the other games they had a big advantage.

“You’ve got to take a step back. I think we really do a good job as an organization. I’m pretty darn proud of what we did. I’d love to get a full training camp. I’d love to get full reps with this group. Love the group.”

Harden has a player option for next season and said he wants to return to Cleveland. That is likely an opt-out and a long-term contract at a reduced price that will give the former MVP security. But again, the question is whether any team can win a title with Harden as the primary ballhandler. So far the answer has been no. He’s convinced the Cavaliers, with a full training camp, are destined for success.

“We accomplished a lot. Still short of the goal,” Harden said. “Now there’s another level to get to, maybe two levels. I think a lot of that is our first time together and the first two series and we had opportunities to handle the series much quicker and we didn’t. That team [New York] has been together for years. I think we’re in a good space and got some work to do but we had a good season.

“We’re a very talented group. We don’t have the experience in playing with each other in postseason basketball. I think we accomplished a lot, winning a Game 7 at home, winning a Game 7 on the road. Setting ourselves up positioning-wise, being the fourth seed was tough.”

Harden wanted out of Los Angeles because he sought the opportunity to win a title, but the Cavaliers never emerged as a serious contender. They were able to beat two flawed teams on the way to the conference finals and now may have to stick with the current roster because of salary cap limitations. Cleveland is a second-apron team.

Harden gives himself a higher grade than his critics.

“Coming here was a piece to fulfill whatever needs to be fulfilled,” he said. “Defensively being extremely solid and offensively getting guys shots and fitting into a system that was already in place. I think I did good. I could have been better, I feel like I can always be better but I know one thing that I work extremely hard but things don’t always go for you as far as shot making but being as seasoned as I am, I try to impact the game in other ways.

“You look at this film and we had unlimited open looks and we just didn’t make them and they made them. If we make shots, then it’s a completely different series.”

Terry Rozier went from the joy of being a first-round draft pick of the Celtics (No. 16 in 2015) to out of the league and facing gambling charges.Keith Bedford

It appears former Celtic Terry Rozier, waived recently by the Heat, has played his last NBA game. A defendant in the betting case against Rozier said he paid the guard $100,000 to alter his performance for gambling purposes. Rozier has been accused of accepting bribes to increase prop bet odds and was accused of leaving a Hornets game with an injury to ensure his prop bet numbers decreased. Former NBA player Damon Jones has already admitted to giving player participation tips to bettors as an assistant coach with the Lakers and helping organize poker games that were rigged. He has yet to be sentenced . . . Arizona forward Koa Peat, a projected late first-round pick after some disappointing measurements at the NBA Combine, has decided to stay in the draft rather than return to school for his sophomore season. Peat could be a potential Celtics target at No. 27. Other notable players who returned to school were Alabama forward Amari Allen, USC guard Alijah Arenas, Michigan guard Elliot Cadeau, Michigan State guard Jeremy Fears, Tennessee guard Juke Harris, and Illinois forward Andrej Stojakovic . . . The Hawks promoted general manager Onsi Saleh to president of basketball operations as the executive had been emerging as a candidate for the 76ers position. Saleh helped put together the Hawks team that was one of the league’s surprises and is positioned to take another significant step forward in the East . . . Former Celtics second-round pick Yam Madar could be coming to the United States to play basketball but it won’t be in Boston. Madar has committed to play college basketball for new LSU coach Will Wade, but he has to be cleared to do so. Madar, 25, has played international ball since 2018. Because Madar played professionally overseas, it would appear he would be ineligible at the NCAA level — but with the lenient rules in recent years regarding former NBA draft picks, he is going to apply for eligibility. Madar played for the Celtics’ entry in the 2021 Las Vegas Summer League but decided to go back to Partizan Belgrade to continue his overseas career. R.J. Luis has also committed to LSU. Luis, 23, did not play an NBA game but signed two-way contracts with the Jazz and Celtics before being waived. NBA players who either never played in an official game or had limited experience have been testing the NCAA waters in recent years.

Gary Washburn is a Globe columnist. He can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him @GwashburnGlobe.

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