Folks, we’ve done it. The Stanley Cup Final is here, and broadcast executives across the continent are crying in their beds. Market size, Sun Belt, blah blah blah.
That’s their problem, not yours. The Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights are two well-built hockey teams with high-end players throughout their lineups, and each has spent the last seven weeks laying their conferences to waste. They deserve to be in this spot, and if you care enough to read this, they’ve earned your attention.
We’re getting a great on-paper matchup. Let’s try to enjoy it.
The odds
There’s plenty of reason to believe each team should be the favorite.
For Vegas, it’s that the Golden Knights dismantled a behemoth, sweeping the seemingly unbeatable Colorado Avalanche with one of the most stifling defensive playoff performances in recent memory. While the standings may not tell the tale, the Golden Knights were a sleeping giant given their territorial dominance this season.
For Carolina, it’s the fact that the Hurricanes have lost just a single game during the entire postseason, a result that probably had more to do with rust than anything else, given the rest of their series against the Montreal Canadiens. For years, the entire Hurricanes’ ethos was questioned for their inability to get over the hump; here they are with a vengeance.
If it has to be one team, though, it’s tough to go against the beasts of the East. Everything Carolina has built over the last decade has coalesced into this moment. The Hurricanes start in the driver’s seat as a result.
The numbers
The Hurricanes are a well-oiled machine. They were one of the best five-on-five teams of the regular season, and that’s carried into the playoffs with a dominant 60.7 percent xG through three rounds. It’s a product of overwhelming offense that comes in waves, between the Canes’ signature forecheck, which is complemented by a stronger transition game, and relentless pressure in the defensive zone.
Carolina may have had an easier path to this point, but going 12-1 with those sparkling numbers helped this team glow up from a plus-62 Net Rating to start the playoffs to a plus-74.
By the numbers, the Golden Knights were a top five-on-five team of the regular season without the results on either end of the ice. But a change behind the bench has helped this group actually look like a five-on-five force. That’s helped Vegas jump nine goals to a plus-60 Net Rating.
The Golden Knights are only hovering around break-even in xG through three rounds. But if they can crush Carolina’s momentum like they did Colorado’s in Round 3, after limiting one of the best offensive teams in the league to just 2.49 expected goals against, then this should be a tight series.
The special teams battle may be another opening for Vegas. Neither team gives up much on the penalty kill, and both play a disruptive short-handed game. Carolina’s managed this far without a ton of power-play success because its penalty kill is so stingy. But the Golden Knights could challenge that, now that they’ve found their footing again with their five-forward top unit.
The big question
Can Sebastian Aho’s line wake up at the right time?
A year ago, the Hurricanes found themselves on the business end of a gentleman’s sweep. The soon-to-be back-to-back champion Florida Panthers took care of Carolina in five games in an Eastern Conference final that was closer than it seemed in some regards, but ultimately an ugly result for an overmatched roster that had spent the regular season raising expectations to an unreasonable level.
The Panthers scored the first goal in Games 1, 2, 3 and 5, winning all four, and held a 21-10 edge in overall scoring, 15-5 at even strength. Along the way, they taught the Hurricanes lessons about physicality, consistency and composure that they’ve put to use this spring, but also raised questions about the limitations of their lineup. After all, Florida had depth to match Carolina’s with elite-talent alpha dogs such as Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk at the top of the pyramid. That’s tough to beat, and the Hurricanes didn’t come particularly close.
Ahead of Florida’s clincher, Aho had three goals in his 13 career conference final games. That’s a decent rate for a bottom-sixer, not someone who typically leads his team in points. To make matters worse, he scored twice in the first period of Game 5, and Carolina still lost. You could imagine a world in which Aho was a big enough star to front a Stanley Cup champion, and you could imagine a world in which Carolina surrounded him with enough other high-end players to make the debate meaningless. Last summer, we were living in neither of them — and either way, Carolina didn’t seem fit to survive a late-playoff matchup without serious production from him.
In a way, that’s the best compliment that can be paid to this version of the Hurricanes. They’re here despite three rounds’ worth of mid-grade play from their first line of Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis. In past years, that would’ve led to afternoons on the golf course. This postseason, it hasn’t mattered.
We’ll go further into why that is the case in a bit. The short answer is that added scoring depth throughout the lineup has served as a layer of insulation against cold streaks and mediocre play from guys such as Aho; Hurricanes general manager Eric Tulsky is fond of saying that they had a team that could win if everything went right, but needed to build one capable of winning when things went wrong. They’ve done just that.
Still, the quest would be a whole lot simpler if Aho, Svechnikov and Jarvis were putting more goals on the board. In 132 minutes with them on the ice, Carolina has been outscored 3-2 (no other line has lost its minutes) and posted an expected goal share of 48 percent (no other line is below 60 percent). The rest of the Hurricanes’ game got them past Ottawa, Philadelphia and Montreal while getting 0.91 goals per 60 from their first line. Playoff-tested, high-end talent such as Marner, Stone and Eichel is another ball of wax. Those three are likely to be spread throughout Vegas’ lineup, potentially negating some of Carolina’s depth scoring and putting more of the onus back on Aho and his linemates.
The X-factor
How much will goaltending matter?
“Build from the net out,” goes the old hockey adage. The 2025 finalists are a counterpoint; both teams are in this position because of rosters built around the idea that you should ask as little from your goaltender as possible.
That’s part of what made Vegas’ 95-point regular season so ironic; its goaltenders — Akira Schmid, Adin Hill, Carter Hart and Carl Lindblom — combined for an .889 five-on-five save percentage that was second-worst in the league and the single-biggest reason for that underwhelming point total. Hill and Hart both dealt with injuries, and Hart took over under John Tortorella, starting six of the seven regular-season games Tortorella coached. In the playoffs, despite some early shakiness against the Utah Mammoth, Hart has put up a .924 save percentage, second only to Carolina’s Frederik Andersen.
Andersen has faced fewer shots at five-on-five than Hart (about 28 per 60 vs. 20) and saved a few more goals above expected, according to public models. Both have done their jobs well, serving as juiced-up caretakers who’ve helped win some games and not lost any on their own. There’s reason to think that’ll continue on both sides. If it does, the series will be better for it.
The rosters
Carolina’s top line isn’t working? No problem: Logan Stankoven’s is. Tremendously so, to the tune of a 12-4 goal differential and a stunning 70.7 xG rate. That level of dominance in both chances and results is practically unprecedented in the analytics era.
Since 2007-08, there have only been eight lines that have played 100 minutes or more and earned an xG of 70 percent or higher and there have been 14 to outscore their opponents by eight or more. Stankoven, flanked by Taylor Hall and Jackson Blake, is the only line that’s done both. The lines that have come closest? Pavel Datsyuk’s in 2008 (72 percent xG, but only up 10-3) and Anze Kopitar’s in 2012 (12-4, but only a 66 percent xG). That is obviously incredible company to keep, one that speaks to Carolina’s lineage as a dominant five-on-five team.
Of course, there is one key difference there: Datsyuk and Kopitar did that against the toughest matchups, Stankoven’s line is third over the boards in that respect behind Aho and Jordan Staal (whose line is also rocking a 70 percent xG rate, by the way).
Stankoven’s line is a microcosm of Carolina’s depth advantage, an overwhelming collection of talent that is miles ahead of what most teams can muster in that spot. If Aho can play the glitzier stars across the ice to a near draw and Staal can shut down the other weapons, Stankoven’s crew can handle the rest. That’s the working theory and it’s worked to an incredible degree so far. It’s roughly in line with what Florida had last year with Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand and Eetu Luostarinen, who finished the playoffs up 13-4 with a 55 percent xG rate. With a more dominant territorial advantage, Stankoven, Blake and Hall have upped the ante so far.
Having said that, Vegas presents a very different challenge than the one Carolina has faced. Montreal and Philadelphia didn’t really have the difference-making depth to hang in the top nine, while Ottawa’s disappeared at the wrong time. The Golden Knights look far more up to the challenge on paper.
As currently constructed, Vegas is going with the old Pittsburgh Penguins playbook by running Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner and Mark Stone on three separate lines. That has the potential to cause real headaches for Carolina, especially with how the former two have played.
Both Eichel and Marner have been Conn Smythe-worthy so far, scoring above a point-per-game rate while tilting the ice heavily with nearly 60 percent of the goals apiece. Their currently constructed lines are operating at a 57 percent xG rate with William Karlsson’s addition to Marner’s line being a major bonus. The question is whether Stone is up for the task.
Normally, that would be a major advantage on Vegas’ third line, especially with Tomas Hertl also on it. But with Stone clearly not being 100 percent, it casts some doubt in this particular matchup. Stone missed two games against Colorado and while he did score three points, he didn’t quite look himself — a theme of these playoffs. Stone is currently playing at a Net Rating pace of plus-7.5 per 82; he was at plus-23.2 per 82 during the season. His usually staunch defensive game has looked a lot more suspect. Eichel and Marner have done their part in that regard, but against Carolina, Vegas will need a lot more out of Stone.
Up front, there’s one other unheralded advantage usually not spoken about: the fourth line. Carolina has one of the best in the league, while Vegas tends to struggle. If the top nine plays tight, that could be the difference.
While a lot of the forwards in this series have deservedly received a lot of hype — Stankoven, Hall, Marner, Eichel — it’s actually a pair of defensemen who lead the respective teams in Net Rating: K’Andre Miller and Shea Theodore.
Miller has been everything and more for the Hurricanes since arriving last summer and has taken his game to dizzying heights in these playoffs. When Wayne Gretzky praises a player’s game, it’s worth paying attention to. Miller has always been a toolsy player, and in these playoffs, he’s finally putting the whole toolbox together. He currently has a plus-5.9 Net Rating to lead all players thanks to a 64 percent xG rate while being up 16-3 (!) on the scoreboard. The Canes are giving up just 0.77 GA/60 and 2.1 xGA/60 with Miller on the ice.
As for Theodore, his plus-3.1 Defensive Rating leads all players thanks to him allowing just 1.51 GA/60 and 1.8 xGA/60 — both of which held up well against Colorado. Theodore’s growth as a premier defensive player this season, as a result of his skating and puck-moving, remains underrated.
Beyond those two, though, Carolina has the advantage. While both third pairs have crushed their sheltered minutes well, Shayne Gostisbehere and Alexander Nikishin have been more dominant — even with the context of opponents factored in. The bigger trouble resides in the other top four pairs. Jaccob Slavin has been as defensively excellent as ever (plus-1.8 Defensive Rating) to anchor his pair, but Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson have continued to be a serious sore spot for Vegas.
For the playoffs, Hanifin and Andersson have a 44 percent xG rate, which sagged to 42 percent against Colorado. For a Carolina team that’s hellbent on possession, that looks like an exploitable matchup if that pair can’t get their act together.
Hanifin and Andersson should both be a lot better on paper; it’s time for them to show it. If they don’t, there may simply be too many advantages in Carolina’s favor.
The key matchup
Nikolaj Ehlers vs. Mitch Marner
Ehlers had some postseason moments in years past, but never generated much of a reputation for his playoff pedigree — at least, not until this spring.
In so many ways, Ehlers feels like the Hurricanes’ missing piece. Carolina had to broaden its approach and add more dynamic weapons to punch the lineup, and Ehlers has been the key to that. He’s unlocked Staal and Jordan Martinook in a new way, giving the Canes a deeper approach.
Vegas, on the other hand, has unlocked a whole new side of Marner, who was never known as a playoff performer, either. Now, he’s more than that as a legitimate favorite for the Conn Smythe. The passing and puck-moving are top-notch, but it’s just one thing he brings to the lineup. His shutdown play in tough minutes (Marner got the MacKinnon matchup on home ice over Eichel) and all situation usage make him the complete package. Now, he just has to keep it up in the highest-pressure environment the NHL has to offer.
The bottom line
For sports-business folks, Carolina vs. Vegas may not be a marquee matchup. But for fans of the game, it should be an absolute treat: a closely contested battle between two puck-possession powerhouses with the Stanley Cup on the line. May the best team win.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
