(Photo Credit: @Canes on X/Twitter)
It’s time for the Stanley Cup Final!
The Golden Knights will take on the first team in NHL history (since the league went to four 7-game series) to reach the Cup Final with a record of 12-1, the Carolina Hurricanes. Carolina is a high-pressure, puck-dominant team that has suffocated three consecutive opponents to win the Eastern Conference. They are analytically stupendous and have for the first time in many years finally turned it into on-ice success. They are healthy, deep, and dangerous at every level and will be a handful for the Golden Knights.
Typically in these “Tale of the Tape” articles, we use stats from the regular season. But with both teams having a decent sample size in the playoffs, we’re going to focus solely on playoff stats in this one.
Record
Carolina: 12-1
Vegas: 12-4
Goals For
Vegas: 58, 3.63 per game
Carolina: 42, 3.23 per game
Goals Against
Carolina: 21, 1.62 per game
Vegas: 38, 2.38 per game
Shots For
Carolina: 438, 33.7 per game
Vegas: 432, 27.0 per game
Shots Against
Carolina: 290, 22.3 per game
Vegas: 477, 29.8 per game
Save Percentage
Carolina: .928
Vegas: .922
Power Play
Vegas: 23.9%
Carolina: 12.5%
Penalty Kill
Carolina: 92.5%
Vegas: 87.5%
Blocks
Vegas: 278, 16.5 per game
Carolina: 189, 13.3 per game
Hits
Carolina: 470, 33.0 per game
Vegas: 539, 32.1 per game
These two teams have absolutely steamrolled through the postseason. Carolina has winning streaks of eight and four while VGK are currently on a six-gamer themselves. The Hurricanes’ shot suppression ability has been their superpower through the playoffs as they’ve allowed fewer than 25 shots in 10 of their 13 games. On the flip side, they’ve posted 40 or more in four different contests. VGK hold an advantage on special teams as their power play has been hitting at nearly 1 in 4 while the Canes have scored on just 1 of 8. Both teams come in with insanely dominant penalty kills though which may neutralize Vegas’ advantage. A bit surprisingly, Carolina actually hits more than the Golden Knights.
On to the fancier numbers.
5-on-5 Shot Share
Carolina: 60.5%
Vegas: 47.9%
5-on-5 Shot Attempt Share (Corsi)
Carolina: 59.4%
Vegas: 47.9%
5-on-5 Goal Share (GF%)
Carolina: 69.8%
Vegas: 54.4%
5-on-5 Expected Goal Share (xGF%)
Carolina: 60.7%
Vegas: 50.4%
5-on-5 – High Danger Save Percentage (HDSV%)
Carolina: 87.9%
Vegas: 85.7%
5-on-5 – High Danger Shooting Percentage (HDSV%)
Vegas: 10.1%
Carolina: 9.0%
5-on-5 – High Danger Scoring Chance Share (HDCF%)
Carolina: 59.9%
Vegas: 51.6%
5-on-5 PDO
Carolina: 1.030
Vegas: 1.022
The Hurricanes have been analytic darlings all season and they’ve carried it over into the playoffs. At 5-on-5 they are not only the best team in this year’s playoffs, they are the best in the last decade of postseasons. They’ve controlled play in all three series and absolutely dominated the puck in the Eastern Conference Final against the Canadiens. Vegas has been a little closer to average analytically in this postseason while benefitting from a decently high PDO (which Carolina has also). That being said, the Golden Knights have done a good job of making use of their shots by generating higher xG than their opponents. Plus, VGK have played much strong teams in regards to analytics than Carolina has. Vegas will have to turn these numbers around to at least some degree if they want to win the Stanley Cup.
Now let’s dive into game state numbers.
When Score First
Carolina: 10-1
Vegas: 7-1
When Concede First
Carolina: 2-0
Vegas: 5-3
Lead After 2nd Period
Vegas: 8-0
Carolina: 7-0
Trail After 2nd Period
Carolina: 1-1
Vegas: 2-3
Wins When Trailing At Any Point
Vegas: 6
Carolina: 2
Losses After Leading At Any Point
Vegas: 1
Carolina: 1
Time Spent Leading
Carolina: 27:38 per game
Vegas: 23:48 per game
Time Spent Trailing
Carolina: 9:51 per game
Vegas: 13:58 per game
Defensively, these two teams have been outstanding which shows up in a big way in the game state numbers. Both squads have been unbeatable when they hold a lead into the 3rd period and they’ve both been near perfect when they score the first goal. After spending most of the year as one of the worst teams in time spent leading, VGK are now second behind only their Cup Final opponent. Vegas have had to overcome many more deficits in the postseason than Carolina, which could flip these numbers on their head in this series.
Finally, some other miscellaneous numbers that these teams either excel or struggle with.
Empty Net Goals
Vegas: 7
Carolina: 4
1st Period Goals
Carolina: 16, 1.23 per game
Vegas: 14, 0.88 per game
3rd Period Goals
Vegas: 25, 1.56 per game
Carolina: 10, 0.77 per game
Record When Outshoot Opponent
Carolina: 12-1
Vegas: 3-1
Record When Opponent Outshoots
Vegas: 8-3
Carolina: 0-0
Power Play Goals Allowed
Carolina: 4, 0.31 per game
Vegas: 6, 0.38 per game
Shorthanded Time
Vegas: 5:44 per game
Carolina: 6:53 per game
1-Goal Games
Carolina: 6-1
Vegas: 4-2
Overtime Record
Carolina: 5-0
Vegas: 3-0
Offensive Zone Start Percentage
Carolina: 60.4%
Vegas: 50.6%
The Hurricanes are natually going to look pretty good in most stats because of their 12-1 record, but one that stands out is shorthanded time. They spend more than six minutes per night in the playoffs on the penalty kill and have still allowed just four power play goals against. The 1st and 3rd periods are interesting as Carolina has actually outscored Vegas in the 1st but are no where close in the 3rd. VGK have been terrific at hitting the empty net while Carolina has not really needed it.
**Stats for this article were sourced from NHL.com, NaturalStatTrick.com, and MoreHockeyStats.com.**
