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Every World Cup needs them, those “dark horse” nations who perform well in qualifying, enjoy some success in their respective continental tournaments and then threaten to upset the heavyweights.
The term itself comes from 1830s horse-racing gambling — for an unknown horse for whom it was hard to assign betting odds. In the two centuries since, it’s been slightly corrupted as a footballing term. We have surprise packages, who emerge during the tournament, and that’s what dark horse should mean based on its etymology.
Nowadays, it’s a tagline for nations outside the elite who might not have achieved much in recent major tournaments but are showing the capacity for a deep run this time. Often they have a golden generation of talent, and, as a rule, former winners can’t be dark horses — apart from perhaps Uruguay, given their most recent World Cup title was in 1950.
Turkey were famously dark horses for Euro 2020 and lost all three group-stage matches. It can be a fatal tag. Serbia were my dark horses four years ago after impressing in qualifying, only to be drawn in a horror group with Brazil, Cameroon, and Switzerland. They didn’t win a game and finished bottom.
What we’re looking for are teams who might make the kind of run Morocco had in 2022, when they became the first African semi-finalists and took out Spain and Portugal in the knockout rounds. Or Costa Rica in 2014, who topped a group featuring England, Uruguay and Italy, and took the Netherlands to penalties in defeat in the quarter-finals.
Morocco players celebrate after beating Spain at the 2022 World Cup in a penalty shootout (Julian Finney/Getty Images)
Here are our main dark-horse contenders from each confederation (because Oceania only has one representative, New Zealand, they’re a default pick):
- North America: Mexico
- Europe: Norway
- Africa: Senegal
- Asia: Japan
- South America: Ecuador
North America: Mexico
Co-hosts Mexico kick off the tournament on Thursday, 11 June against South Africa, a repeat of the opening match from the 2010 World Cup. Javier Aguirre’s side are in a favourable group, which also features Czech Republic and South Korea.
They’re unbeaten in 2026 (five wins, two draws) and operate with a well-coached 4-3-3 that is built around defensive midfielder and captain Edson Alvarez, and Fulham striker Raul Jimenez — he’s got 44 goals from 125 caps, just eight strikes away from Javier Hernandez’s all-time record.
Edson Alvarez and goalkeeper Raul Rangel sing the national anthem (Luiza Moraes/Getty Images)
Most importantly, Mexico have shown their quality in recent tournaments, winning last summer’s Gold Cup with a 2-1 comeback victory over the USMNT in the final. That came three months after a victorious Nations League campaign, which included a semi-final elimination of Canada (2-0) and a Jimenez brace to beat Panama in the final (2-1).
Their hope is to win a first World Cup knockout match for 40 years. Mexico made it out of the groups at every edition between 1994 and 2022 but failed to make the quarter-finals each time. Four years ago, they finished third in the group (and went home early) on goal difference, so pride needs to be restored.
Also, Aguirre has twice coached Mexico at World Cups (2002 and 2010) and they know that winning the group would mean they play the round of 32 and 16 matches on home soil at the Azteca.
Europe: Norway
It’s been so long since Norway played at a World Cup that Stale Solbakken, their head coach, was part of the squad when they last appeared. Nearly 30 years have passed since that 1998 tournament, and now they boast a golden generation. Erling Haaland, Martin Odegaard, Alexander Sorloth, Julian Ryerson, Oscar Bobb, Sander Berge — this group is stacked with players at clubs across Europe’s top-five leagues.
They were devastating in qualifying, scoring the most goals of any European side (37) as Haaland finished top scorer (16). “We have to make sure that we put him in the right areas so he can score goals and be dangerous,” Solbakken told FIFA.com last September. They beat Italy twice to top the group, staging a second-half comeback to win 4-1 in Milan, while three first-half goals had the win wrapped up before half-time in Oslo last June.
It’s a team with obvious super strengths. Sorloth and Haaland provide aerial threats for crosses, and there’s pace and passers in abundance — Norway scored the most goals from headers (eight) and counter-attacks (seven) in European qualification.
Being drawn in the group of death (with France, Senegal and Iraq) counts against them, as does a lack of collective international tournament experience. However, plenty of their players have experienced deep runs in the Champions League, and there’s too much quality in the squad to ignore them.
Africa: Senegal
The time is now for Senegal. The likes of Sadio Mane, Idrissa Gueye, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Edouard Mendy — the core of the side at recent tournaments — are into their twilight years. At the last World Cup in Qatar, they went toe-to-toe with England in the round of 16 before two goals late in the first half took the match away from them.
Since then, new talent has started coming through, such as Nicolas Jackson, Lamine Camara, El Hadji Malick Diouf and Habib Diarra. Pound for pound, Pape Thiaw’s team have one of the strongest defences, best squad depths, and most balanced starting XIs at the tournament.
Mane holds the AFCON trophy before the result was voided (Abdel Majid BZIOUAT/AFP via Getty Images)
Back in January, they beat hosts Morocco 1-0 in extra time of the Africa Cup of Nations final. That result and their African title have since been voided because Senegal players left the pitch late in regulation time to protest a dubious Morocco penalty (which was saved). Having their continental crown stripped has united the team, and they will want some redemption.
They qualified unbeaten and, in spite of a 3-2 warm-up match defeat by the United States, tend to be hard to score against. Thiaw prefers a 4-3-3 but sometimes switches to 3-4-3, and has only lost four times in 31 matches as head coach (including the AFCON final).
Asia: Japan
Two of the outstanding group-stage performances at the 2022 World Cup came from Japan. They beat Germany 2-1 with just 26 per cent possession and then shocked Spain by the same scoreline with only 18 per cent of the ball. This team, led by long-term coach Hajime Moriyasu, know how to cause an upset. In March, they beat England at Wembley and last year edged out Brazil 3-2.
Kaoru Mitoma will be missing from the World Cup after picking up an injury (Photo: Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
Moriyasu has coached a tactically intelligent team and moved to a 3-4-3 shape, playing two No 10s behind striker Ayase Ueda and using pace at wing-back. They have outstanding creative players in Takefusa Kubo and Junya Ito, but will be without Brighton & Hove Albion winger Kaoru Mitoma, who underwent surgery on a hamstring injury last month and misses the tournament.
Japan topped their two qualifying groups (in Asia, they have multiple rounds) and, with 30 goals, were the highest Asian scorers. However, the nation has never won a World Cup knockout match, an obvious target for this summer. In early 2024, they were eliminated by Iran in the Asia Cup quarter-finals — they fulfil the role of giant slayers excellently but need to get better at beating teams on their level.
South America: Ecuador
In 19 matches under Sebastian Beccacece, Ecuador’s record is incredible: seven wins, 11 draws, and just one defeat. That sole loss was a 1-0 defeat in Brazil in Beccacece’s first game. Since then, they have built watertight defensive foundations and found a blueprint of compactness and physicality that nobody has had the answers to.
Ecuador finished second in the South American qualifying round robin — above everyone but Argentina. They are stubborn, defending in a 4-4-2 block and capable of going long periods without the ball.
Ecuador’s Willian Pacho won the Champions League with PSG (FRANCK FIFE / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Moises Caicedo (of Chelsea), Willian Pacho (Paris Saint-Germain) and Piero Hincapie (Arsenal) make up the spine of the team, three youngsters who have had big moves just a few years after graduating from Independiente del Valle’s academy.
CONMEBOL round robin
TeamWDLGFGAPTS
12
2
4
31
10
38
8
8
2
14
5
29
7
7
4
28
18
28
7
7
4
22
12
28
8
4
6
24
17
28
7
7
4
14
10
28
6
2
10
17
35
20
4
6
8
18
28
18
2
6
10
6
21
12
2
5
11
9
27
11
A fair concern is the lack of goals in the team. They still rely heavily on veteran striker Enner Valencia, but that incredible defence — just seven goals conceded and 12 clean sheets since Beccacece took over in August 2024 — should carry them through. Not since 2006 have they made the knockout rounds, having been eliminated in the group stages in Qatar, which should serve as important experience this time around.
