(Bloomberg) — Research analysts across Wall Street are telling would-be SpaceX IPO buyers that they’re modeling for the company’s artificial intelligence division to see 100 times revenue growth at the end of the decade, to help justify a targeted $1.8 trillion valuation.
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Evercore ISI research analysts expect SpaceX’s AI division to deliver $755 billion of sales by 2031, up from $3.2 billion last year, according to a person familiar with the forecasts. The research team sees total revenue for the company topping $1 trillion that year after posting $18.7 billion in 2025, the person said, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.
Wall Street firms spent Thursday morning meeting with prospective buyers to pitch the terms of the listing for Elon Musk’s rocket, satellite and artificial intelligence company as it targets a historic debut. The Starbase, Texas-based company kicked off the marketing process for its $75 billion initial public offering, set to be the biggest of all time, at a fixed price of $135 per share.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s research team laid out ambitious targets through the end of the decade. The analysts see total revenue hitting $474 billion in 2030, and expects AI revenue to soar roughly 100 times to nearly $322 billion that year, according to some of the people. Evercore puts the total revenue figure in 2030 at $486 billion, and AI revenue at $331 billion, one person said.
Goldman Sachs’ team penciled in positive free cash flow for 2031 of more than $72 billion after hitting a trough of negative $105 billion in 2029, the person said.
Over at Evercore ISI, the research team projected AI ramping from less than one-fifth of the company’s revenue to 74% by 2031, with its space business’ revenue falling to 1% of the total, versus more than 20% last year, one of the people said.
Both firms expect SpaceX’s connectivity unit — predominantly made up of its satellite internet service — to grow sales to more than $140 billion in 2030 from about $11.4 billion last year, the people said. Meanwhile, the rocket division is expected to bring in about $8 billion in 2030, roughly doubling from last year’s $4.1 billion in sales, one of the people said.
The teams also see SpaceX’s capital expenditures soaring to more than $360 billion in 2030, up from more than $20 billion last year, the person said. Evercore sees spending nearly doubling to $732 billion in 2031 with roughly $666 billion in spending related to AI, more than 50 times what it spent last year, they said.
