The news leaped off screens across the hockey world, and a moment later, Pittsburgh Penguins fans began dreaming. Detroit Red Wings top-line center Dylan Larkin is done with general manager Steve Yzerman’s constant building known as “The Yzer-plan” in Detroit and wants out.
Larkin will soon turn 30, but is close enough to Penguins general manager Kyle Dubas’s not-so-subtle public call out for an impact player in his later 20s, who may or may not be happy in his current situation.
Yes, Larkin fits.
After 11 years with Detroit and no playoff appearances in 10, Larkin isn’t happy. In each of the last couple of offseasons, Larkin has moved from opaquely criticizing the Detroit organization to outright saying that Yzerman didn’t do enough for the team at the trade deadline and that is why they missed the playoffs. Any discord is not shocking as whispers and echoes have long existed that neither Yzerman nor Larkin are fans of the other.
The word in hockey circles even before Larkin’s new contract was signed on March 1, 2023, was that Yzerman played hardball with Larkin because the GM didn’t want to re-sign him, but ultimately acquiesced because of the market scarcity for top-line centers.
So, there has been tension for some time. And now, with a gold medal around his neck from Team USA’s dynamic win over Team Canada in the 2026 Winter Olympics, he wants the silver trophy, too. It’s time to move on. Time to get going.
But what lies ahead, I have no way of knowing.
Larkin will be an attractive trade get. Over the last five seasons, he has not scored less than 30 goals. His worst points-per-game output was 70 points in 80 games (.85) in 2024-25. Otherwise, Larkin has bubbled around the point-per-game mark, been named to the All-Star Game twice, and was a Team USA Olympian.
He also has four years remaining on a contract that carries an affordable, and very Penguins-esque, $8.7 million salary cap hit.
Interestingly, Larkin has a full no-trade clause, so he will have full control over where he goes, and exactly how Larkin and his representation plan to use that clause will greatly affect his price tag. Similarly, the San Jose Sharks got less than full market value for Erik Karlsson in 2023 after the D-man’s 100-point Norris Trophy season because Karlsson was being choosy about his next destination.
San Jose got what it could, which is the situation that Detroit might find itself in as well.
Penguins Situation
Larkin would obviously be a tailor-made fit for the Penguins for at least the next six or seven years. Larkin could be the center who could not only helps to elevate the current Penguins roster with Sidney Crosby, but be a cornerstone for the transition beyond.
It is an important caveat that adding Larkin alone would not make the Penguins a contender. Make no mistake, they are further away than a mere center, but Larkin would make them very good and within a few shrewd decisions of contending again.
The second unwavering caveat to any Larkin trade discussion is that a trade would delay, if not end, the Penguins’ rebuild, but leave them in a position in which it’s not finished. The Penguins would be good, but not Stanley Cup good, so more additions would be necessary, but they would draft from the later first-round … if, IF, they have any first-round picks.
At least one first-rounder will be required to acquire Larkin, and possibly two, or multiple young players.
For a real world example, a Larkin trade would shift the Penguins’ rebuild from the Carolina model (padding a team around their homegrown talent) to the Vegas model of adding as many proven players in their later 20s as possible, acquiring prospects and draft picks simply to use them as trade fodder.
Also, understand that Father Time will eventually put his hand on Sidney Crosby’s shoulder. Dubas would need to make subsequent moves if they acquired Larkin, but also plan for the future lest the Penguins fall flat after the core-three (Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang) are done soon.
Polishing a contender and not exposing the Penguins to the deep pain of a scorched-earth rebuild will be like trying to thread the eye of the needle, but it seems possible.
So, with all of the pitfalls exposed, it still makes perfect sense for the Penguins to try, which brings the conversation to the most important question:
What will it cost the Penguins to acquire Larkin?
Trade Cost & Comparables
Yzerman will need a center to replace Larkin, and the Penguins do have a young pivot who could likely get a deal done. It is almost assumed that Yzerman would ask for Penguins’ rookie center Ben Kindel in a trade.
That would seem to be a dealbreaker for the Penguins, but maybe not. The comparable trades typically include a top prospect and a No. 1 pick, but in this case
Example 1: The trade acquisition cost could vary based on Larkin’s preferences, but that’s an unpredictable variable. Assuming that Larkin would be interested in Pittsburgh, there are a few recent trades involving first-line centers that light the runway.
The first example is J.T. Miller. He wanted out of Vancouver and had a no-movement clause. In fact, former Penguins general manager Ron Hextall was in the bidding for Miller in 2023, but Vancouver wanted two first-round picks and the Penguins’ top prospect, which was likely 2022 first-round pick Owen Pickering.
Hextall said no. Miller languished in Vancouver for another 18 months, posted a monster 37-goal, 103 point season in 2023-24 before he forced his way out in the middle of 2024-25 after battling with teammate Elias Pettersson.
Trade Analysis: Vancouver settled for far less than what they asked the Penguins, basically getting only a first-round pick and some hope. Former Vancouver GM Patrik Allvin dealt Miller to the New York Rangers for injured center Filip Chytil (concussion symptoms, migraines), project defenseman Victor Mancini who was a 2022 fifth-round pick with ample physical tools, and a top-13 protected first-round pick.
Chytil recovered from his concussion symptoms, but sadly after just 13 games suffered facial fractures and another head injury when he was hit by a puck, essentially ending his career.
Ironically, that first-round pick became Penguins property when Vancouver flipped it to the Penguins for Marcus Pettersson and Drew O’Connor (After two more draft day trades, including trading down, the pick yielded Bill Zonnon at No. 22 and Will Horcoff at No. 24).
Penguins Trade Cost: Miller and Larkin are similar players. Would Dubas part with two first-round picks and a prospect such as Rutger McGroarty or Harrison Brunicke? Will Larkin reject enough suitors that he costs only one first-rounder, an NHL player like Tommy Novak, and a stuck prospect?
Example 2: In Nov. 2021, the war between the Buffalo Sabres and Jack Eichel finally ended. The flashpoint of the epic conflict began when Eichel wanted back surgery recommended by his doctor, but the Buffalo doctors disagreed and the organization refused it.
Of course, the years of Sabres’ ineptitude was also a factor in the heated standoff.
So, Buffalo GM Kevyn Adams finally relented and traded Eichel and a 2023 third-rounder to the Vegas Golden Knights for physical middle-six winger Alex Tuch, promising prospect Peyton Krebs who was a first-round pick just two years prior, a top-10 protected 2022 first-rounder, and a 2023 second.
Trade Analysis: Eichel was a potential franchise player and only 25-years-old. The former second-overall pick was miserable in Buffalo, so his statistics looked like those of a player just counting the days to the offseason.
The age and potential superstardom factors make Eichel more valuable than Larkin. A solid NHL player, a good prospect, a first-rounder, and a second-round pick is the high-end for a Larkin deal.
Penguins Trade Cost: Yzerman has every reason to set his asking price near the Eichel deal. Another drawback to the comparison is that the Penguins lack a good NHL player similar in age to Tuch, 25 at the time. Tommy Novak or Sam Girard would have to suffice, in addition to Brunicke, a first and second-round pick.
Penguins Ability
The baseline for any deal will be a first-rounder, one top prospect, and an NHL player, but it could also cost more. Two first-rounders are not out of the question, nor is a player the Penguins don’t want to give up.
In the hypothetical, the hard decision for the Penguins would be Kindel. There will be no realistically available player this offseason who could make a bigger impact than Larkin, and including Kindel would remove or lessen the necessity for one or more of the other assets.
Sportsnet reported in March that Dubas inquired about St. Louis Blues center Robert Thomas and heard a steep four-asset asking price before declining. St. Louis has set an enormous price on Thomas to keep him, but Detroit can’t do the same.
So, figure the price will be in the middle of Miller and Thomas. Below Eichel, but not too much.
We already know Detroit likes Kindel. Last fall, sources told PHN that Detroit wanted to draft Kindel with their pick at No. 13 but were scooped by Dubas at 11. Such a move would be a steep haul and a risk for Dubas, but it seems Dubas has already decided he wants to acquire an impact player now.
The only questions we don’t yet know the answer to are Larkin’s potential interest in the Penguins and Dubas’s pain threshold to make the “impact” move.
Categorized:Penguins Trade Talk
