Prediction markets give Democrats an 80% chance of regaining control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November, continuing the trend of midterm losses for the party that holds the White House.
This pattern has held for the last five midterm elections. Republicans’ gain of eight House seats in 2002 marked the first midterm pickup by the party controlling the Executive Mansion since 1934.
But Republican Party of Arkansas National Committeeman Eddie Arnold is optimistic about the party’s chances of retaining its slim majorities in the House and Senate.
He shared his hopefulness Thursday with the Republican Party of Garland County. The party holds a five-seat majority in the lower chamber.
“We think we’re going to win,” he said.
He said the national party committee projected about 20 House races as toss-ups, with 212 in the Republican column and 205 breaking for Democrats.
That tracks with the Cook Political Report’s assessment of 18 toss-ups, with 190 safe Republican seats and 22 likely or leaning Republican. Democrats have 182 safe seats, with 23 likely or leaning in their favor. All four of the state’s congressional districts are safe Republican seats, according to the report.
The tight margins put a premium on which party can turnout their voters.
“If we can get the voters out like we did in ’24, we can win it,” Arnold said. “(The Republican National Committee) has staff in 17 states. We target voters, call them, go door to door. We’re aggressively targeting our voters. We have to get them to vote.”
Finding undecided, persuadable voters falls to RNC’s data mavens, Arnold said.
“They’re young people,” he said. “They call them the assassins because they’re so great mining data. They know who they can get out to vote, and they’re getting them out. That’s how (Donald) Trump won.”
Arnold said Republican-controlled state legislatures’ recent mid-cycle redrawing of House lines could tip as many as a dozen seats in the party’s favor. A significant edge in cash on hand also bodes well for Republicans, he said.
“The only message (Democrats) have is they’re running against Trump,” Arnold said. “I think they care more about their party than they do their country.”
Arnold credited the county committee with helping Republicans take control of the state Legislature in the 2012 election. He was chair of the Clark County Republicans when he asked the RPGC to help get Richard Womack, R-District 90, of Arkadelphia elected.
“We said, ‘We think we can get this guy elected,’ but we were totally broke,” Arnold said. “You were very gracious helping us get money, and we won that election. It gave control of the Legislature to the Republican Party for the first time since Reconstruction.”
Arnold said Garland County Republicans are past the internecine squabbles that had divided them.
“You’re the best county in the state right now,” he said. “I’ve followed what’s gone on here. I know you’ve been through some trials and tribulations and some very hard members to deal with, but you worked through it. It would’ve been easy for your leaders to throw in the towel.”
The 2026 general election is Nov. 3 with early voting beginning Oct. 19.
