BETTING ODDS: Souza (-300); Carnelossi (+225)
In the curtain-jerker, two of the stockier, burlier women in the
115-pound division will throw down, in the form of Souza (16-6; 3-3
UFC) and Carnelossi (15-4; 3-3 UFC). A bit like Jessica
Andrade, Souza’s game is built around her physicality. She does
well as an inside boxer, bouncing into range and unloading with
hooks, where her power is plain to see. Even if she doesn’t land
the knockout shot, she has proven adept at nullifying taller,
longer women who want to strike with her at distance, as she showed
in her last outing against Bruna
Brasil, where she used a mix of wrestling and relentless clinch
grinding to frustrate and ultimately defeat her opponent.
Souza is nobody’s idea of a technical wrestler, but her athleticism
and strength serve her well in the inevitable clinches and
collisions, allowing her to bring fights to the ground, where she
serves up nasty punches. She can take the back, especially of an
already compromised foe, and close things out in a hurry, as she
did against Yazmin
Jauregui at Noche UFC last September. Souza’s ceiling thus far
has been against women who can either match her physicality and
aggression, or at least be unbothered by it, as shown in her
consecutive losses to Piera
Rodriguez and Angela Hill
in miserable fights.
Carnelossi’s game depends on her physical gifts (and limitations)
even more than Souza’s. One of the shortest women in the
strawweight division and one of the most impressively muscular
competitors in any division, “Sorriso” favors a simple and direct
approach on the feet, kicking from the outside and sliding into
range to unload big hooks with both hands. Her punches are not
especially fast, but carry serious power, thanks to her strength
and her tendency to swing hard on everything.
Like her kickboxing, Carnelossi’s ground game is not especially
technical but can be quite effective. She has completed (and
prevented) takedowns she should not have been able to, simply
because of her low center of gravity and enormous strength.
However, she is not very good at keeping opponents down, she often
comes out on the losing end of scrambles, and against Talita
Alencar in her most recent outing, Carnelossi was badly
outgrappled by the niftier jiu-jitsu practitioner.
There is a time not too long ago when this line would have been
much closer, but Souza is fighting as well as she ever has while
Carnelossi appears to be in decline at 33. The pick is Souza by
decision in a grueling, sometimes ugly fight in which she wins all
three rounds. If you can find a prop bet for “number of clinches
broken up by the referee,” hammer the over.
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Schnell vs. Costa
McGhee vs. Yannis
Silva vs. Chairez
Cachoeira vs. Chandler
Leavitt vs. Brito
Chaves vs. Duben
Souza vs. Carnelossi
