Republican Spencer Pratt’s chances of advancing to the Los Angeles mayoral runoff have dropped in prediction markets as rival Nithya Raman, a Democrat, continues to gain ground in the ongoing ballot count, narrowing the gap to fewer than 8,000 votes.
The latest results show Raman rapidly closing in on the former reality television star in the race for second place behind incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, also a Democrat, who has already secured a spot in November’s runoff election. More than three-quarters of ballots had been counted as of early Sunday.
The contest has become one of California’s most closely watched races, touching on issues including housing affordability, homelessness, wildfire recovery and public safety. It has also become a flashpoint in a broader debate over California’s slow vote-counting process, which has drawn criticism from Republicans, including President Donald Trump and Pratt.
Politics
Prediction Markets Turn Against Pratt
The tightening race has been reflected in prediction markets.
On Polymarket, the probability of Bass and Raman advancing to the runoff stood at 99 percent early Sunday, while the probability of Bass and Pratt advancing had fallen to 1 percent.
On Kalshi, Bass remained the favorite to ultimately win the mayoralty, with a 61 percent chance of victory. Raman’s chances stood at 39 percent, while Pratt’s had fallen to just 1.8 percent.
The shift marks a dramatic reversal from election night, when Pratt’s odds briefly exceeded Raman’s on both platforms.
Pratt Joins Criticism of Vote Count
The prolonged count has become a source of frustration among some Republicans.
California routinely takes days or weeks to finalize election results because ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive afterward and must undergo verification before being counted. State officials argue the system prioritizes accuracy and voter participation.
Pratt appeared to criticize the process Saturday, sharing a meme on X showing a man staring at complex mathematical calculations.
“Me trying to figure out how votes get counted in LA,” he wrote.
His comments came after Trump accused Democrats of trying to “steal” both the Los Angeles mayoral race and California’s gubernatorial primary through the counting of late-arriving ballots, allegations he made without providing evidence.
California officials have rejected those claims and defended the integrity of the process.
Responding to Trump’s criticism, Governor Gavin Newsom’s office wrote on X that the ballots being counted were “legitimate ballots postmarked by Election Day arriving to legitimate ballot counting centers” under procedures that have been in place for years.
“We’d also like to remind the President that HE HIMSELF VOTED BY MAIL,” the office added.
What Happens Next
As votes continue to come in, polling analysts have been updating their forecasts. Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, wrote on X that the “recent trend has been favorable for Raman.”
He said that for Pratt, the most plausible path to victory is if there are fewer ballots left than estimates suggest. “If fewer ballots remain, Raman has less opportunity to make up ground,” he wrote on X. “It is also possible that yesterday’s unusually Democratic vote batches were not representative of the remaining electorate,” he added.
However, in a later update on Saturday, Donnini wrote that Raman “is closing the gap on Spencer Pratt at an exceptionally fast pace, even bigger margin today. Another large drop moved sharply in her direction.”
As more results are released in the coming days, whether Pratt can hold on—or whether Raman completes her late surge—will become clearer.
