ROCHESTER, Minn. (KTTC) – Wednesday brings a two-part severe weather threat to our region. Morning storms may linger or move into our area, followed by another round of severe storms developing late afternoon into the evening as a cold front pushes through. This stacked setup means we could see impacts at different times throughout the day.
Here’s the latest forecast outlook for Wednesday:
Rain timing for Wed AM and PM(KTTC)
The biggest uncertainty in the forecast is how long the morning storms will linger on Wednesday. Current thinking is that storms will move through from 3 to 7 a.m. on Wednesday. If they exit the region by 7 to 8 a.m., that should give the atmosphere ample time to recharge.
A few stronger storms will be possible in the morning, too. Maybe some gusty wind and hail before 7 a.m.
The primary severe threat will be from 2 to 9 p.m. for the KTTC region.
Afternoon: The Setup Gets Dangerous:
Severe storm outlook(KTTC)
The Storm Prediction Center has kept a Level 3 out of 5 severe weather outlook for our area. Indicating a significant threat.
By late Wednesday afternoon, conditions will be primed for severe storms:
- Moisture: Muggy air with dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s will fuel storm development
- Instability: Strong atmospheric instability (3,500+ J/kg) will support powerful updrafts
- Wind Shear: Winds will increase with height, favoring rotating supercells initially, then organizing into a line of storms
- Lift: A cold front moving through will trigger storm development
Expected High Temperatures: Upper 80s to low 90s, with heat indices near 100°F in some locations.
The Severe Threats:
Tornado outlook(KTTC)
Initial Storms (Late Afternoon)
Supercells are likely to develop first, bringing:
- Large to very large hail
- Strong tornadoes possible
- Damaging wind gusts
Later Storms (Evening)
As storms organize into a line, expect:
- Damaging winds potentially exceeding 75 mph
- Large hail
- Continued tornado potential
Storms should begin to form this line as they move south of I-90. Mainly in far eastern Iowa and into Wisconsin & Illinois.
Tornado outlook with highlighted area(KTTC)
I’ve highlighted the area locally that I think will have the highest potential for tornadic supercells. Really highlighting areas like Charles City, Decorah, and areas south of I-90.
Severe threat levels(KTTC)
What You Should Do
- Stay weather aware on Wednesday. Conditions will change throughout the day
- Have multiple ways to receive warnings (TV, weather radio, phone alerts)
- Know your safe place. Interior room on the lowest level, away from windows
- Keep an eye on timing. We’ll update you as the day unfolds
- Secure outdoor items now if strong winds and hail are possible
Stay with us for updates throughout the day. We’ll keep you First Alert to any changes.
10-day forecast(KTTC)
Nick
Find stories like this and more, in our apps.
Copyright 2026 KTTC. All rights reserved.
