What the National Weather Service predicts
According to the National Weather Service, the majority of Arizona has a 40% to 50% probability of being above normal temperatures for June, July and August, but the northwest corner of the state has a 50% to 60% probability of being above normal temperatures.
The majority of the state will also have a rainy summer with a 33% to 40% above normal probability of rain. However, a small sliver of western Arizona will receive an equal chance of rain, and the northeast corner of the state has a 40% to 50% above-normal probability of rain this summer, according to the National Weather Service.
How these weather predictions are made
AccuWeather uses databases around the world to collect weather forecasts in real time, then digitally processes the data to collect trends of weather happening in certain areas historically, according to the company.
By using this process to collect data for the past 30 years and pairing it with meteorological insight, AccuWeather says it is able to give accurate long-range weather predictions.
Similarly, the National Weather Service uses several airborne and ground-based satellites to track weather patterns. Forecasters use computer programs to create an analysis of the weather to help form predictions. Then, forecasters use numerical, conceptual and statistical models to determine how conditions will change with time.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac is America’s oldest forecaster, according to the publication. It specializes in extended weather predictions to help farmers plan their crops for the season. The Old Farmer’s Almanac uses a method influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the sun, and this factored heavily in its forecasts.
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