Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup cheatsheet, your guide to which teams are up, which are down — with the data analysis to back it up.
We will unpack the key talking points from each matchday and give you the stats you need to stay in the know. And if you want to go deeper don’t worry, we will point you in the direction of some of The Athletic’s best World Cup coverage.
What happened on day one of the World Cup?
Mexico kicked off the tournament in front of a packed and passionate home support and the co-hosts got exactly the result they wanted with a comfortable win against South Africa, beating the hosts of the 2010 World Cup 2-0 in the storied confines of the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
However, the game will go down in history for other reasons: with three red cards shown, this was the dirtiest opening game at any World Cup. To put it in perspective, at the previous two World Cups there were only four red cards shown across the whole tournament.
But perhaps South Africa’s squad should be pleased to have picked up a couple of red cards, as the mailman won’t be bringing any for their birthdays during this summer’s tournament.
What does that mean for the tournament?
Are Mexico credible contenders, or are they just a good soccer team? We’ll discover that over the next few weeks but one thing that is certain is that the refurbished Estadio Azteca will play a big part in the initial stages of the tournament.
Beyond the brilliantly fervent support — the stadium rocked when Julian Quinones and Raul Jimenez scored — there is another reason the Azteca could bolster Mexico’s prospects: altitude.
At 7,365 feet above sea level, it is by far the highest venue at the tournament, followed by Guadalajara (5,463ft) and Monterrey (1,621ft), both also in Mexico.
Mexico plays its final group game against Czech Republic there and, should they top the group, their round of 32 and potential round of 16 match would also be staged at the Azteca.
Their experience of playing at high-altitude could give them the edge against lower-lying opponents. South Africa had tried to acclimatize to playing in these testing conditions by training pre-tournament at high-altitude Pachuca, but were swept aside by a much stronger team.
The question for Mexico is: can they take advantage of these favorable home conditions? It is perhaps no coincidence that the two times El Tri have gone as far as the quarterfinals (1970 and 1986) was when they hosted the tournament.
Recent results are less auspicious. Mexico has failed to progress beyond the round of 16 at any of the past eight World Cups, crashing out at that exact stage every time except in 2022, when they failed to make it out of the group. Is it a curse? Is it an anomaly? Perhaps it’s both.
Anyway, should groups play out as The Athletic’s projections expect them to, Mexico will face England in the round of 16 this season. Thomas Tuchel’s side, packed with Premier League stars, ranks fourth in the world and are among the leading contenders for the trophy. So Mexico may yet see history repeat itself.
But perhaps their altitude advantage could lift them up to new heights.
Thing to tell a friend or colleague today
Raul Jimenez scored his 46th goal for Mexico… but his first at a World Cup. The 35-year-old striker blanked at the three previous tournaments so the outpouring of emotion was understandable.
But there is another reason why he and so many fans were moved to tears: that protective headgear he wears is because of the life-threatening skull fracture he suffered six years ago. That he recovered, rebuilt his confidence and now scored at the World Cup in front of his home fans — with a header no less — is a testament to his courage.
Raul Jimenez’s goal was an emotional moment for the player and his nation (Carl De Souza / AFP via Getty Images)
Stat of the day
Did you notice Gilberto Mora, who came on for Mexico in the second half? He’s the youngest player at the 2026 World Cup, and the sixth youngest in World Cup history. How young? Well, he’s 17 days older than Bitcoin.
Stylistic contrast of the day
There are different ways to tackle a soccer game, as South Korea and Czech Republic demonstrated in Thursday’s second match. The Czechs, perhaps aping the recently-concluded Premier League season, scored via the brute force of a long throw. The Koreans equalized eight minutes later via a 25-pass move. That’s the fifth-longest sequence leading to a goal in any World Cup game since 1966.
Match-up of the day to look out for
Friday sees the arrival of the other two host nations. Canada takes on Bosnia and Herzegovina in Toronto (3pm ET), while the USMNT plays Paraguay in Los Angeles (9pm ET). The expanded 48-team format means that a win for either nation in the first game will all but see them through to the knockout stage. Quite the incentive to start strong.
Who’s winning the World Cup?
Per The Athletic’s projections, both the U.S. and Canada are fancied to progress to the knockout rounds. Mauricio Pochettino’s side are 85 percent favorites to progress from Group D, narrowly ahead of Turkey, but a win against Paraguay on Friday would tip those odds even further in their favor.
Jesse Marsch’s Canada are favorites to get through their group, but it does feel like the team’s Bosnia encounter could set the tone for their summer.
Four years ago hosts Qatar lost all three of their games and finished bottom of their World Cup group. Their presence in Group B all but ensures Canada won’t endure the same fate.
