Published on Jun. 11, 2026, 11:13 PM
The latest forecast is now predicting for El Niño conditions to continue to strengthen heading into the 2026/27 winter season.
After months of updates, the wait is finally over: El Niño is here!
The latest update released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) confirmed on June 11 that the oceanic temperatures and winds over the Pacific were reflective of the onset of El Niño conditions.
“El Niño conditions are present and expected to strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27,” the CPC reported in its update.
Don’t miss out on any of the latest El Niño updates by checking out The Weather Network’s El Niño and La Niña hubpage.
This El Niño could leave its mark in the history books
Not only is this El Niño forecast to continue to strengthen into the winter months, but the CPC has also significantly raised the odds of a very strong El Niño developing during the November-January period.
In the previous update, there were still fairly similar odds for a moderate to very strong El Niño developing from November to January, with the odds slightly favouring very strong at 37 per cent. The latest update, however, has significantly raised those odds up to 63 per cent.
“There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950,” the agency stated.
