USMNT vs. Paraguay World Cup mega-preview: Predictions, odds, must-reads and more – The Athletic
The Athletic has live coverage of USMNT vs. Paraguay at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
At long last, the United States begins its World Cup 2026 campaign on home soil, opening the tournament against Paraguay just outside Los Angeles on Friday, June 12.
The United States, Mexico and Canada were awarded hosting rights back in 2018, and much of the anticipation surrounding this generation has been framed through the lens of 2026. Even the U.S.’s run to the round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup felt like a stepping stone toward this moment.
Now the wait is over. At the largest World Cup in history, featuring 48 teams, the expanded format offers a slightly more forgiving path through the group stage.
But that does not diminish the importance of the opener. With valuable points and early momentum at stake, the U.S. has an opportunity to set the tone for its tournament — and strengthen its position in Group D from the very start.
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What you need to know about the matchup
Group D: United States (FIFA ranking 17) vs Paraguay (FIFA ranking 41)
Venue: Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium), Inglewood, Calif.
Date: Friday, June 12
Kick off: 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT
U.S. pathway: Qualified automatically as a host nation. Drawn from Pot 1.
Paraguay pathway: Qualification in sixth place from CONMEBOL, the governing body of football in South America. Record: 7 wins, 7 draws, 4 defeats. Drawn from Pot 3.
Staff predictions
Paul Tenorio: U.S. 1, Paraguay 0 – Paraguay is such a good defensive team, I think they make this game really tough on the U.S. Ultimately, I think one goal will make the difference: 1-0 U.S. to push the Americans forward with some momentum in the group stage.
Henry Bushnell: U.S. 2, Paraguay 1 -The Americans are confident. Everyone is healthy. Pre-tournament friendlies provided boosts. Of course, an early Paraguay goal on Friday could change everything, but I think the U.S. will rise to the occasion.
Tom Bogert: U.S. 2, Paraguay 0 – Line-breaking passes from the midfield to get the ball to Christian Pulisic is a key to unlocking this game. The wingbacks will be critical as well, especially the moments they have space to attack.
Felipe Cardenas: U.S. 2, Paraguay 2 – The U.S. can’t keep a clean sheet but I think they’ll find ways to score. Paraguay will be forced into a transition game and will walk away with a big point.
Odds
The U.S. is favored to win Friday’s match. On both FanDuel and DraftKings, the USMNT is -110 to get the win (bet $11 to profit $10).
Even though that’s enough to give the Americans favorite status, it implies they win the match barely more than 50 percent of the time.
A draw is viewed as the next most likely outcome at +240 on FanDuel and +245 on DraftKings.
A Paraguay win is +320 on DK and +330 on FD.
In others words, the odds are saying it’s roughly a 50/30/20 split between a U.S. win, a draw or a Paraguay win, respectively.
The Athletic’s projection tool gives the Americans a 39 percent chance of winning Group D. It also says the U.S. has a 97 percent chance of advancing to the knockouts with a win. That drops to 81 percent with a draw and 64 percent with a loss.
Sergiño Dest takes a shot at USMNT training as Christian Pulisic and Weston McKennie observe (Kirby Lee / Imagn Images)
If U.S. beats Paraguay it will be because…
The Americans turn possession and pitch control into quality chances, or at least turnovers that aren’t in vulnerable places.
The Paraguayans are not interested in having the ball and dictating the game in possession. They aim to contract space for the opposition, defend deep and then spring into space in transition moments. The team has a number of strong defenders, ones who will use physicality and positional awareness to eliminate as much fluidity and opportunity as possible.
So, the onus is on the U.S. to turn possession into chances. And star player Pulisic as well as the wingbacks will be key to that. When possession is inevitably turned over, it can’t be in moments that gives Paraguay transition chances.
Slow, sideways passes with numbers forward, or an underhit corner kick/cross can spark those dangerous opportunities for Paraguay. Sequences ending in goal kicks or possession lost towards Paraguay’s corners can lead to opportunities for the U.S. to repress and win possession in dangerous areas, too.
Of course, set pieces will always play an outsized role in these games, too.
If fit, Paraguay stars Julio Enciso (19) and Diego Gómez (8) could cause the USMNT some problems (Luis Acosta / AFP / Getty Images)
If U.S. draws it will be because…
Paraguay frustrates them defensively. If they USMNT passing sequences are too slow and not crisp enough to unsettle the defense, Paraguay will be able to contain the likes of Pulisic, Folarin Balogun, Weston McKennie and whoever else ends up in the final third looking to unlock Paraguay.
This Paraguay team is capable of keeping a clean sheet against the U.S. It’s not likely, but it wouldn’t be a gigantic shock. They can also be dangerous in transition, even in the event it’s without injured key attacker Julio Enciso. Miguel Almirón and Diego Gómez, in particular, are the players to watch on the break.
Paraguay narrowly lost 2-1 to the U.S. in November. It will be a vastly different game for both, but they are not huge underdogs.
At the opening game of the 2022 World Cup, the USMNT was generally the better team than Wales and controlled the game. They walked away with only one point because of a late penalty scored by Gareth Bale.
If U.S. loses it will be because…
Their defensive vulnerabilities are not totally fixed by the return of defender Chris Richards.
In the last warm-up game before the World Cup, the U.S. conceded an easy, early header to Germany’s Kai Havertz from a set piece.
Richards had been missing for the game through injury, but has declared himself fit to play against Paraguay. As such, there is an assumption that such moments will be eased by his presence, quality and experience. But if they lose this one, it will be declared that there are other problems they have to deal with.
Key injuries
Both teams should be relatively healthy entering the match despite having recent scares to key players. The aforementioned Richards has declared himself “ready” after overcoming an ankle injury, although U.S. manager Mauricio Pochettino would not commit to anything definitive regarding his playing status. Antonee Robinson also appears in the clear after exiting the send-off friendly vs. Germany with what was deemed to be cramps.
Paraguay forward Julio Enciso suffered a leg injury in the team’s lone tune-up friendly vs. Nicaragua on June 5, but reports suggest he is fit enough to play — and potentially even start — one week later.
Predicted lineups
United States (4-2-3-1): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A. Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Balogun
Paraguay (4-4-2): Gill; Cáceres, G. Gómez, Alderete, Alonso; Bobadilla, D. Gómez, Cubas, Almirón; Sanabria, Enciso
Match referee
The referee will be Danny Makkelie, a 43-year-old, Curaçao-born official leading a Dutch crew. He has worked one USMNT match before, a 2-1 friendly win over Germany in 2015.
Schedule and TV information
USMNT vs. Paraguay: June 12, 9 p.m. ET on FOX (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish).
Tubi, the network-owned streamer, has a simulcast of this game.
Next U.S matches
USMNT vs. Australia in Seattle: June 19, 3 p.m. ET on FOX (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)
USMNT vs. Turkey in Los Angeles: June 25, 10 p.m. ET on FOX (English) and Telemundo, Peacock (Spanish)
Mauricio Pochettino — perhaps — showing USMNT players The Athletic’s full complement of World Cup offerings (Screenshot / TNT Sports)
Essential reading
A handful of must-reads from The Athletic staff.
The billionaires who backed Mauricio Pochettino’s hiring
Without some influential benefactors, the USMNT would have a different coach this summer.
Christian Pulisic has no problem shouldering the weight of a home World Cup
Pulisic’s career has been pointing to this moment, and he’s approaching it with a relaxed demeanor.
Everything you need to know about the United States’ 2026 World Cup team
New to the World Cup or the USMNT? This is the perfect starting point for understanding the team, the stakes and the storylines ahead of the tournament.
Friendship over fear: The USMNT’s long-standing brotherhood
Players on this team go back more than a decade, with the memories and equity in each other to show for it.
How a fiery friendly against Paraguay helped forge the USMNT’s World Cup identity
The U.S. and Paraguay met in a friendly last year, but simmering tensions boiled over — and the confrontation helped reveal a competitive edge that has since become a defining trait of this American team.
In Paraguay, USMNT will find an unfazed, deep-feeling World Cup foe up for a fight
Paraguay is one of South America’s proud footballing nations, renowned for its resilience and fighting spirit. Back at the World Cup for the first time since 2010, head coach Gustavo Alfaro is convinced his team is ready for the challenge ahead.
Tim Ream, USMNT’s ‘grandpa’ who defies Father Time
The 38-year-old captain of the U.S. will become the team’s oldest player ever at a World Cup. What’s been behind his late-career renaissance?
How to watch USMNT in the 2026 World Cup: Match schedule, roster and TV lineup
A more comprehensive guide to how supporters can tune in for all three group-stage matches — plus whatever comes next.
