The 2026 FIFA World Cup is fast approaching, and Group D kicks off on June 12 in what is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining groups of the entire tournament. Canada, Mexico, and the United States are jointly hosting this historic 48-team event, and it is the Americans who headline Group D; a squad playing in front of a home crowd that is going to make life very difficult for the three visiting nations.
However, this is not a group with a foregone conclusion. The USMNT enters as the market favourite on the back of home advantage and genuine quality in their roster, but Turkey is a dangerous side who only just clinched qualification in March, Paraguay brings South American grit and experience, and Australia comes in off a memorable run to the round of 16 at Qatar 2022.
Any one of these four teams is capable of picking up points. This is the group that will keep bettors up at night. Here is my 2026 FIFA World Cup Group D prediction.
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FIFA World Cup Group D odds
Here are the latest odds for each team to win the group:
- United States (+125)
- Turkey (+200)
- Paraguay (+400)
- Australia (+700)
Additionally, you can bet on which teams will qualify based on the odds below:
- United States (-750)
- Turkey (-500)
- Paraguay (-205)
- Australia (-110)
The top two teams in each group will earn automatic qualification, with eight third-place finishers also advancing under the expanded format. The market refuses to install any team as a clear favourite here, and the odds reflect that reality; the United States is barely ahead of Turkey at the top. With three of the four sides priced within reason to qualify, this group could genuinely go in any direction.
United States preview and analysis
The United States is hosting the World Cup for the second time, with the first time coming in 1994. The USA lost to Brazil in the Round of 16 at that tournament, and the goal is clear at this tournament: qualify for the quarterfinals. They fell to the Netherlands 3-1 in the Round of 16 in 2022, but Mauricio Pochettino is now in charge, and this squad has more talent than it ever has. AC Milan attacker Christian Pulisic, Juventus midfielder Weston McKennie, and Bournemouth’s Tyler Adams are the main names of this squad, but I expect more contributions from their striker trio of Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi, and Haji Wright compared to Qatar.
Turkey preview and analysis
I view Turkey as an extremely dangerous team, even though they had to qualify for the tournament via European playoffs. However, they possess extreme talent and even beat the USA 2-1 in a friendly last June. Since September, the Turks are 6-1-1, with their only loss and draw coming against Spain. Kenan Yildiz is their biggest threat up top, and Hakan Çalhanoğlu is integral for their midfield, but both players are dealing with injuries, and their statuses are up in the air. However, I expect both players to take the field, and Turkey is a live underdog to win this group.
Paraguay preview and analysis
Paraguay is returning to the World Cup for the first time since 2010, and they enter the tournament as a dangerous defensive side that nobody will want to face. Gustavo Alfaro has transformed this team during qualifying, as Paraguay consistently earned results against South America’s top nations through disciplined defending and physical play. Miguel Almirón remains the key attacking threat, while Julio Enciso adds creativity and pace in the final third. Paraguay is not built to dominate possession, but they are organized, tough to break down, and capable of turning matches into low-scoring battles. If their defence continues performing at this level, a trip to the knockout stage is very realistic.
Australia preview and analysis
Australia is heading back to the World Cup once again, and this squad has developed a reputation for being far more competitive than many expect on the international stage. The Socceroos reached the Round of 16 in 2022 before falling to Argentina, and their physical style and defensive structure continue to make them a difficult opponent. Tottenham defender Kevin Danso and Middlesbrough midfielder Riley McGree are key pieces for this squad, while veteran goalkeeper Mat Ryan still provides leadership and experience at the back. If they can capitalize on their chances in tight matches, Australia is capable of pushing for another knockout-stage appearance.
2026 FIFA World Cup Group D Prediction: Dual Forecast Any Order USA/Turkey (+150)
Overall, this is the toughest group for me to pick, especially given my American bias. However, I expect the USA and Turkey to finish in the top two spots of this group. There is some value in backing Turkey to win it all, but the dual forecast is the best way to go.
Best Bet: Dual Forecast Any Order USA/Turkey (+150)
Group Winner: Turkey (+200)
