Today’s Top Home Run Picks at a Glance
- Shohei Ohtani (+260)
- Bobby Witt, Jr. (+330)
- Alec Bohm (+880)
Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.
That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.
Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today’s MLB action? Also, you can check out our MLB player news page to stay up to date with lineup news and injuries.
MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.
Best Home Run Bets: HR Props and Picks for Today
Shohei Ohtani (+260)
Shohei Ohtani is a strong home run target whenever he’s in the lineup because he continues to hit the ball as hard as almost anyone in baseball, ranking in elite territory with a 52.6% hard-hit rate, a 15.9% barrel rate, and a .406 expected wOBA this season. He’s also been heating up recently, homering in back-to-back games before his precautionary day off and launching 13 homers on the year.
Bobby Witt, Jr. (+330)
Bobby Witt Jr. is a strong home run target today because the underlying power metrics are elite, even if the home-run total doesn’t fully reflect it yet. He owns a 13.4% barrel rate, a 54.2% hard-hit rate, and a .395 expected wOBA this season, all indicators that more long balls should continue to come. Mike Burrows is a solid enough matchup that should scare us.
Alec Bohm (+880)
Alec Bohm is an intriguing home run target at these long odds because his underlying power numbers have been stronger than his home-run total suggests, with a hard-hit rate near 47% and an expected slugging percentage that points to positive regression. After an ice-cold start to the year, he’s got a .420 wOBA across his last 32 plate appearances. The matchup is fairly favorable as well, with Philadelphia expected to face left-hander Shane Drohan, giving Bohm the platoon advantage.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?
A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).
What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn’t start?
FanDuel’s policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don’t get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel’s official terms before placing your wager.
Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?
Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.
What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?
Some of the most important factors are: the hitter’s recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher’s home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.
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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook’s MLB odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
