WASHINGTON, D.C. — UFC Freedom 250 is finally here and with all of the hoopla, pomp and circumstance surrounding the event’s unorthodox and historic venue, potential weather disruptions, paired with the many political angles, let’s talk about the main reason longtime mixed martial arts enthusiasts will be tuning in, which is the fights.
There are just seven fights on the card, which takes place Sunday night on the South Lawn of the White House, and plenty is on the line for the fighters involved.
Below are breakdowns for each matchup with an explanation for how each fighter can carve out their path to victory, the most likely outcome and best avenue for wagering on each matchup.
One caveat is that these breakdowns and predictions will be done without knowing exactly how the aforementioned uncontrollable elements — which could include insects, humidity, rain and otherwise — could impact each bout.
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Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje
Topuria’s path: Precision, precision, precision. Topuria needs to keep this fight clean. Gaethje is a notoriously messy fighter and he wants his opponents to get their hands dirty. Topuria needs to dictate the terms of this fight and win using the finesse, timing and technique that earned him championships in multiple weight classes.
Gaethje’s path: On the flip side, Gaethje needs to bait Topuria into a war, but he needs to ease him into it. Pushing the agenda early on would be a dangerous proposition with a fresh Topuria standing in front of him. If Gaethje can make this into a war of attrition without getting caught along the way, he can slowly build momentum while Topuria’s best weapons diminish.
Prediction: Topuria by KO/TKO in the first two rounds.
Best bet: Topuria by KO/TKO in Rounds 1, 2 or 3 -145
Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane
Pereira’s path: Pereira needs to harness his devastating power by finding his rhythm. With so much experience in the striking realm, Pereira has seen it all and Gane will use his finesse and footwork to try to lull Pereira into a false sense of security. Pereira needs to use that against him and pick his shots. With his newfound heavyweight build (he weighed more than Gane on the scales at Saturday’s weigh-in), paired with the humidity, energy expenditure could make the difference in this fight.
Gane’s path: Gane needs to build. He needs to employ a similar strategy to Pereira in terms of finding his rhythm, but once he does, he needs to pressure Pereira and try and wear him out. Gane’s power has shown to carry throughout his fights, and while his finesse has given many heavyweights issues, Pereira will know how to navigate that better than most. Gane needs to show Pereira what it’s like to be hit by a heavyweight and once he connects, he needs to put his foot on the gas and find a finish.
Prediction: Gane by KO/TKO in Round 3.
Best bet: Gane by KO/TKO in Rounds 3, 4 or 5 +800
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Watch UFC Freedom 250 on Sportsnet+
The UFC heads to the White House lawn for a night of fights in what promises to be one of the most unique sporting events in history. Watch UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14 with the seven-fight pay-per-view card available on Sportsnet+ starting at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.
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Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi
O’Malley’s path: O’Malley needs to hit and move, outland Zahabi and get him to chase. If O’Malley can bring impatience out of Zahabi, it will allow him the opportunity to land bigger strikes and build an early lead on the scorecards. He needs to take advantage of any urgency shown by Zahabi, given the stakes of this matchup.
Zahabi’s path: Zahabi needs to do what got him to the dance. If he can make the correct reads, land precise, heavy shots and utilize his ever-improving striking defence to frustrate O’Malley, he can win a close decision.
Prediction: Zahabi by decision
Best bet: Zahabi +3.5 rounds +150 (translation: Zahabi needs to win one of the three rounds on the scorecards)
Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit
Lewis’s path: Lewis needs to avoid being taken down at all costs, whether that is feinting with knees and uppercuts early or by stuffing early takedowns. He will be alive for as long as he can keep the fight standing.
Hokit’s path: Hokit needs to wear Lewis down early by pushing a grappling agenda. While he showed great success on the feet against Curtis Blaydes in his last outing, it was because Blaydes is one of the best wrestlers who has competed at heavyweight. If he can get the takedown, he can make it look easy.
Prediction: Hokit wins in round 1
Best bet: Hokit wins in Round 1 or 2 -185
Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler
Ruffy’s path: Ruffy needs to control the distance. If this fight is taking place on the feet, Ruffy is likely in the driver’s seat and can find a finish or take a more risk-averse approach and finesse his way to a decision.
Chandler’s path: Practice patience, enter the pocket infrequently, but with intent to grapple. If this becomes a firefight, as so many of Chandler’s bouts have, Ruffy could style on him, so he needs to take a more grapple-heavy approach, similar to what Benoit Saint-Denis did when he defeated Ruffy.
Prediction: Ruffy by decision
Best bet: Fight Starts Round 2 -155
Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus
Nickal’s path: Nickal’s athleticism gives him a leg up against most middleweights. While he won’t be at much of a disadvantage in the striking realm, I do not think those are his best win conditions. If he can take Daukaus down and get into half guard or side control, that will give him the security that he needs to try and find a finish or score points en route to a comfortable decision.
Daukaus’s path: I used the word “comfortable” for Nickal’s best path to victory. Daukaus needs to make sure to negate that comfort by threatening brabo chokes whenever Nickal shoots takedowns and throw power shots on the feet, which have become a more dangerous weapon for him over the course of his career.
Prediction: Daukaus wins in Round 2
Best bet: Daukaus wins inside the distance +370
Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia
Lopes’s path: Lopes has the weapons that can make this a difficult fight for Garcia. Possessing a cast-iron chin and solid grappling will give him favourable win conditions and as long as he takes the path of least resistance early on, I do not see Garcia winning this bout down the stretch.
Garcia’s path: One thing that Lopes has not faced since coming to the UFC is opponents with fight-stopping power, with Jean Silva being the lone exception. Garcia needs to test Lopes’s chin early and often, because if Lopes is able to dictate the terms of this fight, it could spell trouble.
Prediction: Lopes wins by submission in Round 2
Best bet: Lopes wins inside the distance +120
