“Let the oil flow,” read President Donald Trump’s Truth Social post Sunday announcing a deal to end the Iran war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Speaking alongside President Emmanuel Macron in France on Monday, he said “the deal’s all signed,” adding that the strait is expected to fully reopen by Friday, when the agreement is formally signed in Switzerland.
But the memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the conflict has prompted questions and criticism, including one from a Democratic senator that it represents a surrender.
While many are welcoming the reopening of the strait, and congratulating Trump after the negotiations in recent weeks, key stakeholders have raised concerns.
Israel has been among the most critical. Even before Trump’s post, Sunday’s Yediot Aharonot, a Hebrew daily, headlined that it was a “bad deal” that followed negotiations in which Israel, which has waged two wars against Iran in the last year, played no part.
As well as opening the waterway in effect held hostage by Tehran, the MOU as reported would see the U.S. lift its retaliatory blockade of Iranian ports. More detailed talks in the next 60 days would be over Tehran’s nuclear program and sanctions.
Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the think tank SWP Berlin, told Newsweek Monday that as there is still no clarity on the MOU’s provisions, “we cannot make any credible or reliable judgment about its potential implications.”
“There is therefore still room for misunderstandings or even miscalculations regarding the commitments of each party at this stage,” he added.
Israel’s Discontent
Israel’s far-right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has called the MOU “bad for Israel” and “the entire free world” and pledged on Monday “to continue the campaign to topple the regime” in Tehran.
Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot, a challenger to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in upcoming elections, said there was “a vast gulf” between Netanyahu’s “empty promises of total victory” and the emerging deal, The Times of Israel reported.
The deal also has its critics in the U.S. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, while welcoming the end to a war that has weakened the country, described the MOU as “essentially surrender to Iran.”
“Make no mistake: these are Iran’s terms,” Murphy wrote on X, “they made one single concession—opening the Strait. And it’s not even a concession because the Strait was open before the war!”
Murphy condemned how Iran might get billions of dollars in frozen funds from the U.S, which if released before any nuclear agreement is reached would reduce Washington’s leverage in any ensuing talks.
Without any swift follow-on deal, the MOU “will be volatile and impossible to sustain on its own,” Nate Swanson, director of the Iran Strategy Project at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, told Newsweek.
The MOU as reported is a 14-point plan that will most likely temporarily reduce violence, increase maritime traffic, and give more time for both sides to hammer out details.
However, it does not appear to resolve the mechanics of the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian nuclear concessions, or Iranian financial incentives and sanctions relief, which are supposed to be addressed in the second phase over the next 60 days.
“There are structural incentives in the United States, Iran, and Israel that will make a second phase difficult to achieve,” said Swanson, noting how so far the U.S. hasn’t shown the patience needed for a complicated nuclear deal that requires new monitoring and verification measures.
He also said that Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei may not want to do anything beyond a small, transactional deal with the U.S., especially given that the U.S. assassinated his father and other family members.
“It’s possible Iran agrees to terms that are wildly in Iran’s favor, but those are likely to be so unpalatable in the United States and Israel that a deal is extremely unlikely,” added Swanson.
Meanwhile in Iran, officials involved in negotiations with the U.S. faced backlash from hardliners accusing them of capitulation. President Masoud Pezeshkian, writing on X Sunday, said those working to protect “national interests and dignity” should not be labeled traitors.
Question Marks Over Strait of Hormuz
Both Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said an agreement would be signed in Switzerland on Friday. However, there are questions over the fate of the Hormuz Strait, whose control remains a priority for Tehran, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“It’s toll free. We had a little argument on that,” Trump said on Monday alongside Macron. “It’s toll free. I think it’s gonna be free sailing.”
The MOU as reported does not clarify whether Tehran would continue to manage the waterway and keep its de facto toll system for passage, which foreign minister Abbas Araghchi suggested would continue.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News reported on Monday that “important changes” were made to the final text of the of the MOU that explicitly affirmed Iran and Oman’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. An informed source told the outlet that Iran would accept toll-free passage for ships through waterway for only 60 days.
After that, Iran would offer safety, navigation, environmental, and insurance services but use revenue from commercial ship traffic for economic development, the source added.
This signals Tehran’s intentions to keep control of the waterway, with the ISW saying on Sunday that an “open” strait under Iranian management “is not a return to the pre-war status quo and would mean that Iran has accomplished a key war aim.”
It appears that Iran has agreed not to levy transit tolls during the 60-day negotiation period and that discussions with Oman are ongoing to finalize new transit arrangements.
Azizi said: “Once Iran lifts these restrictions for the 60-day period, however, it will become politically costly to reimpose them afterward, unless the negotiations collapse entirely and fighting resumes. In such a scenario, the specific provisions of the agreement would become largely irrelevant.”
“Geography alone gives Iran the ability to resume operations aimed at disrupting shipping through the strait whenever it chooses. In that sense, this is essentially a reversible concession on Tehran’s part,” added Azizi.
Israel to Remain in Lebanon
Israel on Monday has pledged to continue its occupation of Lebanon, which got embroiled in the war on March 2 when Hezbollah launched rockets against Israel in support of Iran.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said Monday that the deal touted by President Donald Trump does not bind Israel, which is not a party to it. He added that Israel would not withdraw from any territory in Lebanon already “captured” by its military.
Meanwhile, Israeli newspaper Hareetz has quoted defense minister Israel Katz as saying the IDF will “indefinitely” remain in security zones in Lebanon—as well as Syria and Gaza.
“We do want to see if we can straighten out the Lebanon thing,” Trump said Monday in France.
The Israeli assault on Lebanon has led to the widespread demolition of homes in southern Lebanon and what has been termed an Israeli occupation of swathes of the country. At least 3,711 people have been killed in Israeli attacks, according to Lebanese authorities, and over one million displaced.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said Monday he hoped a deal would put a “definitive end” to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, but the comments by Katz and Ben-Givr signal no end in sight to Israel’s presence in his country.
