Smartphones may be doing more than killing small talk; they might be shrinking family sizes, too. Economist Caitlin Myers of Middlebury College argues in a new study, not yet peer-reviewed, that the spread of smartphones could account for roughly one-third to one-half of the 22% drop in US birth rates since 2007—the year the iPhone debuted. When the device first launched, it worked only on AT&T’s network, creating the grounds for an experiment, per NPR. As Myers discovered, counties with early AT&T coverage saw births fall faster than places where iPhones were initially out of reach, even after adjusting for factors like urbanization and income.
The birth rate for teens and women in their 20s in counties with extensive AT&T coverage fell by 26% and 14.6%, respectively, from 2007 to 2011, compared to 13.8% and 10% in counties with no coverage, the study finds, per USA Today. How could a rectangle of glass do that? Psychologist Jean Twenge notes that teens in particular shifted from in-person hangouts to hours on their phones, which likely cut down opportunities for sex, per NPR. Myers adds that smartphones may have nudged some users toward pornography instead of in-person relationships, though they also put contraception and abortion information within easy reach. With smartphones now nearly universal, Myers says the open question is whether birth rates stabilize—or keep sliding as screen habits evolve.
