Will your team get one of the third-place berths in the World Cup? This chart has the answer

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All 48 teams of the 2026 World Cup have now played one game. Some teams — Turkey, Ecuador, Iran — have not had the start they’d hoped for, while others — Cape Verde, Sweden, Australia — have surprised with a strong performance.

These teams may now be asking the same question, even if they’re approaching it from opposite directions: How can we get one of those third-place berths?

Here’s the short answer, based on thousands of simulations from our World Cup Tracker:

• If you finish third with four points, you are essentially guaranteed to advance to the knockout rounds.
• If you finish third with three points, you are likely to advance unless your goal differential is worse than -2.
• If you finish third with two points, you almost certainly will not advance.

Here is a view of these scenarios in detail:

This particular chart is just a snapshot as of Wednesday evening. Our forecast page has this information in real time — including during matches — and will change to reflect the tournament’s scores to date.

Some fans may not have thought about this yet, but the question of which teams advance to the knockout rounds is more complicated than it might seem, thanks to the new structure of this year’s tournament. The top eight (of 12) third-place teams will now advance (previously, just the top two teams in each group did). But there is not much history to calibrate any team’s finish to its chances of earning a berth.

Adding to this uncertainty is the tournament calendar itself: Teams that finish third in Groups A, B or C, for example — perhaps a country like Czech Republic, Bosnia and Herzegovina or Scotland — will have several days of waiting for other groups to finish before knowing for sure whether they will make it.

The specifics will differ from team to team, but our forecast provides a detailed picture: Three points and a goal differential close to zero or better is a reasonable mental cutoff point for a third-place berth.

That said, it’s also possible to finish fourth with three points, in which case a team will not advance no matter its goal differential. And those that do finish third must avoid lopsided defeats (like Curacao’s 7-1 loss to Germany).

Of course, the best way to avoid worrying about advancing with three points is to get four points. But this is the big picture.

How to track your team

The earlier your team finishes group play, the less helpful the third-place standings table is going to be. But we can offer some tips to help you stay on top of all the possibilities:

First, visit your team’s page on our tracker tool. It will provide a match-by-match guide for which outcomes most help your team’s chances. (Here are those pages for the United States, England, Argentina and Canada.)

Second, follow our live forecast of which groups are best-positioned for a third-place berth. The official standings table is not particularly useful for understanding which teams are on track for a third-place berth, because the teams currently third in their group aren’t necessarily the ones most likely to finish there.

If you’re hoping your team gets a third-place berth, your concern should not be any one team but the group producing that team.

This chart, which updates live on our forecast page, shows how likely it is that a group’s third-place team advances — and then, secondarily, which team in that group it is likely to be.

Group F, currently atop this chart, is instructive here. It opened play with its best two teams, Japan and Netherlands, drawing 2-2, while Sweden beat Tunisia 5-1.

Even if Sweden doesn’t get another point, it’s starting with a +4 goal differential. With two consecutive 2-0 losses, it would have three points and an even goal differential, which our chart suggests should keep it safe if it finishes third. And if Japan or the Netherlands end up in third, they’d be in a great position, too. They would only need a win over Tunisia to have four points and be essentially guaranteed to advance.

At the bottom of our forecast is Group G, meaning it is currently least likely to produce a team that receives a third-place berth.

The reason Group G’s outlook is currently the lowest among all 12 groups is because its two weakest teams, Iran and New Zealand, tied 2-2 in their opening match. Both are underdogs in their upcoming matches, against Belgium and Egypt, which means they already missed their best opportunity for a win — it was in the game they played against each other.

These teams now need two draws or one win to have a real chance. Anything is possible, of course. But neither outcome is likely.

Third, consult the standard standings table — but carefully. The key here is to limit your comparisons to teams from groups whose games are complete. If you want your team to get a third-place berth, you only need to be better than four third-place teams. If you’re already ahead of two of them with half the groups yet to complete, you’re in good shape.

All of these charts update minute-by-minute as games are played over on our forecast pages. Keep an eye on them to know whether your team will advance.