Every year, the biggest mistakes made by NHL teams are made on the first day of free agency. It’s the nature of the free market, where bidding wars drive up prices to wild places and the last team standing is usually paying an uncomfortable amount.
Amidst that, there are still great deals to be had for undervalued players at the right place. That’s the goal of today’s piece: finding 10 players within the UFA landscape who project to provide surplus value relative to what they’re expected to be paid.
Here’s who I think are the best players to target based on their projected contracts, courtesy of AFP Analytics.
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Mason Marchment
For the teams that strike out on Alex Tuch and need a top-six winger, Marchment feels like a great consolation prize at potentially half the price. After struggling with the Kraken, Marchment was an absolute revelation in Columbus with some dazzling numbers at five-on-five (59 percent of expected goals, 69 percent of actual goals) while scoring at a 67-point pace. Marchment has consistently posted north of two five-on-five points per 60 in each of the last three seasons, where his teams have routinely outscored teams heavily.
Marchment probably isn’t a driver, but he looks like a difference-making complementary piece that could pair well with a star or influence offense on the second line. He’d be a bargain at his projected price tag of $5.7 million; I have him closer to $7.5 million.
Viktor Arvidsson
For most of his career in Nashville, Arvidsson was a 60-point player. In Los Angeles, he was a 60-point player. And last year in Boston, he was a 60-point player. That he only managed 27 points in 67 games in Edmonton, primarily playing with Leon Draisaitl, remains a mystery to this day. It’s also the only season aside from his rookie year that Arvidsson’s team didn’t outscore their opponents with him on the ice. Weird.
Arvidsson is on the older side of things and he’s a safe bet to miss some games, but when he’s playing, he’s a tried and true play-driver who creates a ton of in-zone offense. He bounced back nicely from a disaster in Edmonton and should be a solid 25-25 guy in the top six. That’s easily worth an expected $5 million AAV. He’s worth closer to $6 million.
John Carlson
Few defensemen have been as consistently excellent as Carlson over the last decade; it’s remarkable how steady his value has been from age 27 to 36 with little sign of slowing down. In that span, his projected Net Rating has stayed tight between plus-eight and plus-13 with no decline whatsoever over the last four seasons. Last season may have even been his best in that span, with 60 points and some of his best five-on-five numbers in years.
While there’s a lot of potential upside with Darren Raddysh, given his meteoric rise last season, it’s the volatility of such a seismic shift in value that gives pause. Carlson is the complete opposite of that: you know exactly what you’re getting with one of the league’s most dependable offensive defensemen.
At some point, he’s going to slow down, and that’s the main risk with signing him. But he’s still a strong bet relative to his projected price tag of $7 million over the next three years. Accounting for age, he might still be a $10 million man.
The Old Guys Without A Cup
Keeping on theme with Carlson, the over-35 crowd is usually a strong bet to deliver value. They’ve already made their money, their contracts can be bonus-laden and they generally have a larger focus on glory anyway. That’s especially true if they still haven’t won a Stanley Cup yet.
That applies to three players in particular this summer: Brent Burns, Claude Giroux and Jamie Benn.
All three still expect to be roughly average players this season, and while that isn’t saying much, it is a bargain at their expected cost. Burns is projected at just $1 million, Benn at $1.3 million and Giroux at $2.5 million. You don’t need math to tell you those are good deals for what those players still are, but I have each player being worth at least double those prices. Mats Zuccarello also counts for this group, but the odds of him reaching free agency feel slim.
Patrik Laine
We’re officially done with the actual needle-mover guys and into the bargain bin reclamation projects. And we’re starting off with a bang with Laine, whose stock has plummeted over the last decade since being drafted second in 2016. He can’t stay healthy, he can’t play defense and he can’t drive play, all of which make him a difficult player to commit to and fit into a lineup. It’s hard to place a one-trick pony in a modern top six, and unless the fit is perfect, it’s hard to squeeze him into what most coaches want in the bottom six.
But what Laine can do is still a rare commodity, and that’s score goals. His shot remains lethal and for a team in desperate need of power-play help, he can work well as a specialist. The motivation to prove himself shouldn’t be ignored as a potential factor either. AFP Analytics has Laine at league minimum, but even in his currently very flawed state, his value is still closer to $3 million on my end. The right team might be able to get even more out of him.
Kailer Yamamoto
Height is a huge barrier for a lot of traditional types. I get it. But in a year where Zach Benson and Logan Stankoven have proved their mettle in a playoff setting, one year after Brad Marchand put up another dominant playoff run, it might be time to give more spark plugs a chance. Yamamoto fits that bill.
The diminutive winger had a fantastic season in Utah’s bottom six. He scored 2.09 points per 60 at five-on-five, and he was absolutely dominant at driving play with a 54 percent xG and 58 percent of actual goals. His tracked data is pretty sparkling too, where he’s great at transitioning the puck up ice and forechecking in-zone.
Yamamoto should come cheap because of his frame (5-foot-9, 178 pounds) and production, but he offers a lot of efficiency beyond the box score. It may come as some surprise that a smaller forward grades out so well defensively, but Yamamoto is a tenacious player with one of his top comps being Paul Byron. He’s a bargain under $2 million.
Pavol Regenda
It’s never easy betting on a player without much of a sample size. It’s hard to discern what’s real and what’s fake; an undrafted 26-year-old scoring nine goals in 24 games generally screams fake.
But Regenda seems to have the underlying profile in that small sample to suggest there might be some juice here. At five-on-five, he scored 1.1 goals per 60, but also generated 0.92 xG per 60 — both numbers right in line with Macklin Celebrini’s output. That’s obviously not apples-to-apples; it’s just to show how efficient Regenda was when he did play. His on-ice numbers were just as great with a 52.4 percent expected goals rate, second to only Igor Chernyshov among forwards.
It feels like there’s something here, and at a likely low cost, it’s worth the risk to find out.
Oliver Bjorkstrand still has something to give to a team in the top nine at a good price. (Pablo Robles / Imagn Images)
Oliver Bjorkstrand
After a very difficult season, Bjorkstrand’s stock has plummeted. AFP Analytics has his value down to just $2.8 million, which isn’t all that surprising given he was a healthy scratch at times in the playoffs and is coming off a disappointing 32-point season.
I think he still has some juice left as a third-liner, given his strong body of work in the two years prior. He was a terrific play-driver and a more frequent scorer as well (last year he shot just 3.8 percent at five-on-five). The reason Bjorkstrand should work in a third-line role is his defensive detail in-zone. He’s great at retrieving pucks and getting them out, which has led to some solid chance-against numbers in each of the last three seasons.
Bjorkstrand is not exciting as an offensive player, but he still has something to give in the top nine at a good price.
Vincent Desharnais
I’m surprised there isn’t a lot more hype for Desharnais out there. He’s massive (6-7, 225 pounds), he hits, he blocks shots, he’s a right shot and most importantly, he can actually play.
Well, he can actually play defense. Desharnais is a complete liability with the puck; there’s no sense lying about that. His production and puck-moving numbers are awful, meaning he needs to be paired with someone who can do that job effectively. But his scoring chance suppression numbers? Those are excellent.
In each of his four seasons, his teams have given up at least 0.15 fewer xGA/60 with him on the ice. Last year, it was a career-best 0.53, which more than made up for his dismal offensive game. The Sharks earned 50.6 percent of expected goals and 50.4 percent of actual goals with Desharnais on the ice; both marks led the team’s defensemen. To top it all off, Desharnais was one of San Jose’s most-used penalty killers and absolutely crushed his minutes — he has one of the best PK ratings in the league.
While it’s true Desharnais doesn’t play tough minutes, he seems to have the capability to handle a shutdown role in the right setting. His plus-3.4 Defensive Rating is the best of any defenseman available. AFP Analytics has him at $2 million; I think he’s worth closer to $3.5 million.
Mike Reilly
No player confounds models on an annual basis more than Reilly. Every year, his on-ice numbers dazzle, and every year, he struggles to get much playing time out of it. C’est la vie.
While I don’t think Rielly is anywhere near as good as last year’s 60 percent xG (!) would indicate — he plays extremely sheltered minutes — I do think he’s capable of third-pair duty. At 6-2, there’s no issue with size either. Reilly is projected to cost about a million bucks and should deliver a bit more value above that with his puck-moving ability.
— Data via Hockey Stats, Hockey Stat Cards, Evolving-Hockey and All Three Zones
