Men’s Flyweights
Allan Nascimento (22-6) vs. Mitch Raposo (10-3)
BETTING ODDS: Nascimento (-200); Raposo (+170)
This fight was originally scheduled for UFC Winnipeg in April but
was canceled on fight night when Raposo fell ill. He recovered and
neither man has fought since, so the scouting report for the
rebooked fight remains the same. Raposo will seek to build on the
momentum of his first Octagon win against Nascimento, who carries a
four-fight win streak in this flyweight attraction.
Headed into his bout with Azat Maksum
at UFC 321 last October, Raposo appeared to be a better, more
skilled fighter than his 0-3 record across
Dana White’s Contender Series and his first two UFC bouts
indicated, and he proved it, rallying from early adversity to leave
Maksum in the dust. More than just picking up the W, Raposo showed
the breadth of his skills, his grit and his composure, and the
contrast between Raposo getting suplexed on his head in Round 1,
and Maksum being penalized a point in Round 3 for clinging to the
fence like a toddler who didn’t want to leave Chuck E. Cheese, was
remarkable. Raposo is a compact athlete who came to MMA with solid
wrestling, has added a nice boxing game to his skill set, and
continues to struggle at times to combine the two in such a way
that he, not his opponent, is controlling the fight.
At 34, Nascimento is seven years older than his foe, and he has
more than twice the professional experience. He is a huge
flyweight—to a fault; he missed weight against Jafel Filho
less than a year ago—with long reach in both his arms and legs.
Like many of his bleach-blond Chute Boxe Diego Lima brethren, “Puro
Osso” is a much more competent and potent offensive striker than
one might think, based on his ratio of knockout to submission wins.
He employs a classic CBDL muay thai style, not unlike his bigger
teammate Charles
Oliveira, whipping kicks and laser-straight one-twos out of an
upright stance and meeting opponents with knees and elbows when
they close the distance. On the ground he is a serious threat
everywhere, punishing foes with hard, accurate ground strikes,
taking back control in a flash and threatening with chokes or
armbars. He is only an average offensive wrestler at best, however,
meaning that he can be dependent on scrambles, standing back takes
and even guard pulling to get the fight to the ground at times.
Nascimento is a pretty big favorite here and it’s easy to
understand why. He is far more proven against a far higher level of
competition, and thus far his only loss in the UFC was a
competitive split decision in his debut, against a Top 10 fighter
in Tagir
Ulanbekov. Meanwhile, Raposo looked very impressive in whupping
up on a formerly blue-chip prospect that might be fading fast in
Maksum. However, I am leaning towards the upset here, for reasons
both intangible and semi-tangible. On the semi-tangible front,
Nascimento is a massive fighter for the division with a massive
weight cut and has actually fought at catchweights in his last two
outings; while the Cody Durden
fight was held at 130 pounds due to the short-notice booking, the
fact remains that Nascimento has not made 126 pounds for a fight in
over three years. Considering how Raposo steamrolled an overweight,
exhausted Maksum late, if Nascimento’s weight cut is a hard one,
this fight already has “upset” written all over it.
However, there’s an intangible element at work here as well.
Watching Raposo take over against Maksum last October, you can
almost see the youngster realize, in real time, that he’s a
UFC-level flyweight. The talent had always been there, the three
losses had all come against very good fighters, and everything
finally clicked. Confidence matters, and my guess is that it makes
the difference here. The pick is Raposo by decision, very possibly
by once again weathering some early adversity to win Rounds 2 and 3
in increasingly impressive fashion.
Jump To »
Lima vs. Borjas
Mesquita vs. Mullins
Nascimento vs. Raposo
Bolanos vs. Aswell
Rosa vs. Santos
Shahbazyan vs. Chokheli
Collins vs. Tanzilovi
