BETTING ODDS: Mesquita (-600); Mullins (+450)
“Bia” Mesquita looks to continue a speedrun to bantamweight
contention here against Mullins, who will seek to get back in the
win column, and back above .500 in the Octagon, in this matchup of
30-something prospects.
At 35 and with a lifetime of training and competition behind her,
Mesquita has no margin for error if she wishes to become a true
crossover standout. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible—much the same
could have been said of Alex
Pereira, two fights into his UFC run—but she has her work cut
out for her. Mesquita is one of the greatest grapplers of all time,
and her particular style, consisting of a heavy top game,
relentless back control and lethal chokes, is very applicable to
MMA.
That being the case, Mesquita’s fortunes will always hinge on her
ability to bring fights to the ground in the time, place and
position of her choosing, and her ability to defend herself well
enough on the feet to put herself into situations to bring them
there. While Mesquita is extremely strong, she is not much of a
fast-twitch athlete, and at a stocky 5-foot-2, she gives up height
and reach to almost everyone. In her first two UFC bouts against a
couple of the lowest-level women in the division, she blew through
Montserrat
Rendon, but Irina
Alekseeva, despite not being a particularly skilled fighter,
gave Mesquita all she could handle for several stretches in their
fight thanks to her size, strength and judo background.
Which brings us to Mullins. “No Mess” might have been a cheeky
nickname three years ago, but it’s become an ironic one, as her UFC
run has been messy to a fault. Mullins came to the UFC as an
undefeated grappler with some modest upside and has gone 2-2 since
while looking very inconsistent from one fight to the next. At her
best, she is a big, strong 135-pounder who overcomes her middling
athleticism with a disciplined striking game designed to get her
into position to bring the fight to the ground. Once there, she is
a solid grappler with very heavy ground-and-pound.
Mullins’ struggles have been at least partly due to fight IQ. None
of her opponents have been levels above her in skill or talent and
even if we concede that Nora
Cornolle was a tough style matchup, Mullins could easily be 3-1
in the UFC right now. However, her approach will always require her
to have good fight management skills, specifically around when to
close distance and when to make a concerted takedown attempt, and
thus far she has not done so consistently.
There’s no mystery why Mesquita is a 6-to-1 favorite: Mullins is a
very good grappler while Mesquita is literally world-class. Still,
it isn’t hard to see what it will look like when “Bia” takes her
first loss. At some point, she will struggle mightily against an
opponent with superior reach, good enough lateral movement to avoid
the fence, the physical strength to shuck off clinch takedowns and
the discipline to sprawl and brawl for three rounds.
Mullins possesses those skills and physical tools. The question is
whether she has the presence of mind to implement that game plan
and the mental fortitude to carry it out, since it will play
against her own usual instincts.
On the preview show, I predicted she would pull it off, and my
co-host Keith looked at me like I was an idiot. He might be right
(OK, he’s probably right) but we’re ridin’ anyway. Give me Mullins
by nip-tuck decision in one of the biggest betting upsets of the
year in the UFC. (If you don’t want to follow me off this cliff,
Keith picked Mesquita by first-round submission.)
Jump To »
Lima vs. Borjas
Mesquita vs. Mullins
Nascimento vs. Raposo
Bolanos vs. Aswell
Rosa vs. Santos
Shahbazyan vs. Chokheli
Collins vs. Tanzilovi
