Closely fought primaries have set up a race for Maine governor, with Democrat Hannah Pingree against MAGA-aligned Republican Bobby Charles in November as the state prepares to replace term-limited incumbent Janet Mills.
Early signals from prediction markets suggest Pingree enters as a clear favorite, reflecting the state’s recent Democratic tilt in gubernatorial elections, and following the endorsement she received from Mills, a Democrat.
In the Democratic primary, Pingree secured 111,750 votes, or 56.2 percent, defeating nearest rival Nirav Shah, who won 86,950 votes, or 42.7 percent. Charles won the Republican primary with 59,873 votes, or 60.25 percent, ahead of Benjamin Midgley’s 39,499 votes, or 39.74 percent. Pingree and Charles will compete against independent Rick Bennett.
Hannah Pingree, left, during a 2009 rally when she was Maine House majority leader. Bobby Charles, right, fields a question during a debate in March 2026.
What Prediction Markets Show
On Polymarket, Democrats are given a roughly 89 percent chance of winning the race, compared to about 12 percent for Republicans. On Kalshi, traders similarly price a Democratic victory at around 86 percent to roughly 15 percent for Republicans.
Prediction markets differ from traditional polling because they are based on real-money trades. Prices fluctuate depending on how traders respond to developments such as candidate performance, fundraising and broader political trends. While markets currently give Pingree a strong edge, they are not forecasts, and the odds can shift quickly when new information emerges.
Pingree and Charles emerged from crowded primaries decided by ranked-choice voting, which ensured that each secured majority support within their party after multiple rounds of vote redistribution.
However, that system will not apply in November. Maine’s constitution requires gubernatorial elections to be decided by plurality. The presence of Bennett, a former Republican state party chair who also qualified to be on the November ballot, adds another dimension.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the seat, which has been held by Mills for nearly eight years, as likely Democrat.
What Hannah Pingree Has Said
Pingree, who is the daughter of Democratic Representative Chellie Pingree, framed her primary win as a call to build a broad coalition heading into November.
Her campaign has focused on affordability issues—particularly housing and healthcare—arguing that economic pressures facing voters are rooted in policy decisions:
She has also framed it around President Donald Trump, saying on Friday that his “reckless attacks, his wars and economic choices that are making life harder for Mainers.”
She wrote on X: “Heading into November, I need all of you—whether I was your first choice or your fifth or you didn’t participate in the primary at all—because beating Bobby Charles and Rick Bennett requires a diverse coalition of Mainers in this state pulling together.”
What Bobby Charles Has Said
Charles has taken a sharply different approach, portraying the race as a referendum on Democratic leadership. He has pledged sweeping tax cuts and a crackdown on government spending and corruption.
Posting on his campaign’s X page on Friday, he wrote: “Maine has had the same failed leadership for too long. I’ll cut income taxes, cut property taxes, and end needle giveaways. As a former Federal investigator, I’ll open the books and hold every corrupt politician accountable, no matter their party. It’s time for a change.”
What Is Ranked Choice Voting?
Ranked choice voting was central to determining the nominees.
Under the system, voters rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of first-choice votes, the lowest-performing candidate is eliminated and their votes are redistributed based on next preferences. The process continues until one candidate secures a majority.
The process was required in both primaries this year, as neither Pingree nor Charles initially reached a majority.
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