BETTING ODDS: Rodriguez (-170); Amil (+145)
“The Hurricane” will seek to get his late-bloomer featherweight run
back on track against “CeeRod,” who continues his multi-divisional
run of derailing flashier prospects.
A year ago, Amil was the featherweight division’s most surprising
up-and-comer, arguably a fringe contender after he edged out
William
Gomis to bring his record to 11-0 overall, 3-0 in the UFC.
Things have soured since then with back-to-back losses against
Jose
Delgado and Jamall
Emmers, but all told, he is still far above the projected curve
for a man who was best known as the striking coach at Gilbert
Melendez’s El Nino Training Center, and who seemed to treat his
own fight career as more of a side quest.
Even at 36, and with a lifetime of training and competing behind
him, Amil is still a standout striker. As one might expect, he has
a complete, technically sound muay thai arsenal, but what made it
go, especially through his eye-popping first few fights in the UFC,
is his athleticism. He is fast, coordinated and delivers excellent
power on every strike, thanks to that natural snap and solid
mechanics.
Amil’s takedown defense and ground game were more than up to the
task of keeping opponents in his wheelhouse—at least, until he ran
into Emmers last fall. Emmers’ big frame, diverse takedown arsenal
and very underrated grappling kept Amil in trouble for long
stretches of their fight and, just as importantly, kept him from
being able to bring his own best weapons into play.
Rodriguez is such a historical and statistical anomaly that it’s
difficult not to let the fun get in the way of actual analysis. His
last four wins have all seen him hand undefeated prospects their
first career loss. All four of them (Raul Rosas
Jr., Cameron
Saaiman, Isaac
Dulgarian and Austin
Bashi) were considered legitimate blue-chip prospects, all four
were comfortably favored to beat Rodriguez, and Rosas and Bashi
have both rebounded, leading to those wins aging very nicely on
Rodriguez’s ledger.
“CeeRod” has accomplished the feat without any smoke or mirrors;
he’s simply a well-rounded, well-conditioned fighter who is smart
and prepared enough to fight to his best advantage. Against Rosas,
who was the talk of the entire UFC at the time, Rodriguez avoided
the ground game, kicked Rosas’ legs and pulled away as the bigger
grappler got tired. Three years later, that remains the blueprint
for beating Rosas.
This fight is one of the occasions where Rodriguez is actually
favored to win, and ironically, that is when he has usually
stumbled. However, I do like him here. His striking is not as crisp
and fluid as Amil’s, but it is very good and Rodriguez still has
yet to be seriously outclassed on the feet. Meanwhile, his
underrated wrestling—underrated mostly because his job as a
prospect-killer has usually been to stay upright—will probably come
in handy throughout the fight. A year or two ago this would have
felt like a pick ‘em, but concerns over Amil’s age and durability
make me lean toward the favorite. The pick is Rodriguez by
decision.
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Kape vs. Horiguchi
Cutelaba vs. Stirling
Amil vs. Rodriguez
Baghdasaryan vs. Magomedov
Fili vs. Oliveira
The Prelims
