SEATTLE — The U.S. men’s national soccer team will have a rarity next Thursday: a World Cup game that doesn’t matter.
Or, at least, the result doesn’t matter. The United States has already clinched the top spot in Group D. Turkey, its opponent on Thursday at SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles, is already eliminated and will finish fourth.
In theory, the so-called “dead rubber” — soccer parlance for a game without consequence — gives the U.S. a chance to rest key players, avoid injuries or suspensions, and experiment ahead of its first knockout-round match on July 1 in Santa Clara, Calif.
But it also risks disrupting the rhythm that this U.S. team has built over the past few weeks and dampening momentum entering the knockout rounds.
So how should U.S. coach Mauricio Pochettino approach the match?
Sit the players on yellow cards
Four U.S. players go into the final group-stage game carrying a yellow card: Tyler Adams, Folarin Balogun, Chris Richards and Antonee Robinson.
Under current FIFA World Cup regulations, any player who receives two yellow cards in the three group-stage games is suspended for the next match. Per the regulations, those yellow cards are wiped after the group stage and then again after the quarterfinals.
That means Adams, Balogun, Richards and Robinson would be at risk of missing the round of 32 should they play and pick up a yellow against Turkey. That should almost certainly disqualify them from consideration by Pochettino in this group finale.
Antonee Robinson (5) and Folarin Balogun (20) are instrumental for the USMNT, but both are on yellow cards heading into the World Cup group finale (Troy Wayrynen / Imagn Images)
There is simply too much risk with no reward. All four of those players aren’t just starters, they’re key to the U.S. team’s success. Balogun has two goals and set up a third; Adams is a stalwart in defensive midfield; Richards is the anchor of the back line; and Robinson is a vital part of both the U.S. defensive structure and its attacking patterns as the left back.
There is one school of thought that the four players could play but exercise caution; playing with mental constraints, however, could disrupt their rhythm just as much as resting might.
This should open up opportunities for players like Ricardo Pepi and Haji Wright up top, Mark McKenzie on the back line, Max Arfsten at left back and Sebastian Berhalter or Cristian Roldan in midfield.
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More rest for Pulisic?
Christian Pulisic missed Friday’s 2-0 win over Australia with a left calf injury suffered in the first half against Paraguay. Sources briefed on the injury insist it is tightness caused by getting kicked in the calf, nothing more serious, and that Pulisic continues to improve.
Pochettino said the star winger, who set up the first two U.S. goals against Paraguay, is getting closer to contributing again.
“The evolution is really well,” Pochettino told Fox ahead of Friday’s Australia game. “Today, he was training in the morning in the camp, and I’ve seen the feelings are good. I hope as soon as possible he can be ready to be selected again and to be part of the team. Now, we need to be focused on our team and the players that are going to play.”
So, could he play against Turkey?
On one hand, the game holds no meaning, and it’s not worth playing Pulisic if doing so would risk worsening his injury.
On the other hand, some think it would be good to get Pulisic minutes in a low-stakes game where he can recover some form and fitness ahead of the the round of 32. Among the people in this camp are two former U.S. men’s national team managers: Gregg Berhalter and Bob Bradley.
“I think you just do a return to play,” Berhalter said on the FanDuel Coaches’ Corner show. “You go through the steps and you see where he’s at. If he’s ready to go, I would say you want to play him. You don’t want that much time. And it may not be the whole game, but you want to give him an opportunity to play based on his health.”
Bradley agreed.
“Calf injuries are tricky,” he said. “As they are going through all the steps in the return to play, you’re going to get an indication of exactly where he is. You don’t want to rush him, that’s for sure. But when you start thinking about the Paraguay game and the number of days before you get to the round of 32, that’s a long time without playing.”
Nineteen days, in fact. It’s a timeline Pochettino is surely weighing.
Christian Pulisic might be ready to play in time to face Turkey. But should he? (Steven Bisig / Imagn Images)
Rest vs. rhythm
Similarly, the U.S. staff will weigh the importance of rest vs. rhythm for every player who has started two matches. With almost a full week between games, the idea of rest is less relevant. The U.S. team will have six days to recover from Australia and another six days to rest after Turkey. And there is a downside to elongated breaks between games.
“(When) you get a win like you did against Paraguay,” midfielder Weston McKennie said this past week, “you just want to carry on the momentum straight away and play the next game.”
With this American team winning over the belief of a country, there is also something to be said for maintaining that momentum — both within the group and for the fans around the country tuning in. So, there is a strong argument for rolling out many of the same starters, even if doing so carries some inescapable injury risk.
Plus, if Pochettino does opt to rest the four players on a yellow, that means there will already be significant changes to the starting lineup. For continuity’s sake, for momentum’s sake and even just for form and fitness, minimizing changes outside of the absolutely necessary ones makes sense.
“There’s no substitution for actually getting on the field and playing games,” former U.S. coach Bruce Arena said on the coaches’ show. “I think it’s important in the third game we play as many regulars as we can. … It’s not easy, it’s going to be a real challenge. We’re going to be playing a team that finished third in its group (in the round of 32). And they’re going to have a lot of minutes behind them and be a little bit more prepared in terms of rhythm than we might be … so it’s a very interesting challenge for the coaching staff.”
So who should start?
Considering the above factors, here’s a look at a possible starting lineup for Pochettino against Turkey.
