August WTI crude oil futures kept falling sharply during the week ending June 26. Traders continued to take out the extra price they had added earlier because they worried about possible supply problems in the Middle East. The contract moved between a high of $78.14 and a low of $68.90 before finishing at $71.53. That was down $3.99, or 5.28 percent, from the week before.
The selling went on for most of the week. Traders stopped focusing as much on the chance of oil supplies getting cut off in the Persian Gulf. Instead, they paid more attention to the idea that more Iranian oil could soon reach the world market. Even though weekly inventory numbers still looked tight, the latest news from the U.S.-Iran talks was seen as a big reason to expect easier supplies ahead.
Advancing Iran Agreement Removes More Geopolitical Risk Premium
The main reason for the price drop was more good news about the agreement between the United States and Iran. The deal aims to end the recent fighting and let normal oil shipping start again through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports during the week said the two sides were working out final details on how and when the important shipping route would reopen. They were also talking about letting Iran sell more of its oil again under a special waiver from U.S. sanctions.
Traders saw these steps as clear signs that hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian crude could return to the global market sooner than expected. The agreement moved…
August WTI crude oil futures kept falling sharply during the week ending June 26. Traders continued to take out the extra price they had added earlier because they worried about possible supply problems in the Middle East. The contract moved between a high of $78.14 and a low of $68.90 before finishing at $71.53. That was down $3.99, or 5.28 percent, from the week before.
The selling went on for most of the week. Traders stopped focusing as much on the chance of oil supplies getting cut off in the Persian Gulf. Instead, they paid more attention to the idea that more Iranian oil could soon reach the world market. Even though weekly inventory numbers still looked tight, the latest news from the U.S.-Iran talks was seen as a big reason to expect easier supplies ahead.
Advancing Iran Agreement Removes More Geopolitical Risk Premium
The main reason for the price drop was more good news about the agreement between the United States and Iran. The deal aims to end the recent fighting and let normal oil shipping start again through the Strait of Hormuz. Reports during the week said the two sides were working out final details on how and when the important shipping route would reopen. They were also talking about letting Iran sell more of its oil again under a special waiver from U.S. sanctions.
Traders saw these steps as clear signs that hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian crude could return to the global market sooner than expected. The agreement moved forward with talks on monitoring the deal and taking the first actions to ease limits on Iranian oil sales. People in the market read this as real progress toward bringing Middle East supplies back to normal levels after months of worry.
Because of the better news, traders sold the contracts they had bought earlier when they feared big shortages. The chance of a major supply cutoff now looked much smaller, so many decided to close out their bets on higher prices.
IEA Report Adds Bearish Pressure on Demand and Supply Outlook
Other news during the week made the selling even stronger. The International Energy Agency put out its latest monthly report and lowered its forecast for how much oil the world will need in the rest of 2026. The agency said economic growth has been slower in some places and that earlier high fuel prices had already hurt demand. It also pointed out that if the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully and Iran exports more oil, world supplies could rise a lot in the months ahead.
The IEA report basically said that while oil stocks are still low today, the market could move into better balance or even have extra oil if Middle East exports keep rising. Traders took this as another reason to believe the big supply fears from earlier in the year were fading fast.
Tight Inventories and OPEC Outlook Limit Losses
Even with the big price drop, some things stopped the market from falling even harder. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said American crude oil inventories fell again last week by a large amount. Stocks at the main delivery point in Cushing, Oklahoma, also kept dropping. This showed that refineries are still using a lot of oil to make gasoline and other fuels for the busy summer driving season, so physical supplies in the United States remain tight.
At the same time, OPEC kept its longer-term view that the world will need more oil in the years ahead as economies grow. The group again said countries must keep investing in new oil production to meet future demand. Traders did not pay much attention to these long-range ideas while prices were falling, but the comments helped remind everyone that the sell-off was mostly about the Iran news and not about suddenly weak demand or too much oil right now.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
Technical analysis of the August WTI crude oil futures market comes down to one factor: the 52-week moving average at $68.35.
Hold above the 52-week MA, and there is an outside chance of a strong counter-trend rally. A failure to hold this indicator and the lower $60’s hit the radar.
Late this week, the market reached $68.90, which was slightly above the 52-week moving average at $68.35. The first level to overcome is the main 61.8% level at $72.48. The second is the 50% level at $77.75. We’ll be looking at a labored rally until we reach the second level.
The 50% level at $77.75 could be resistance or a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. Since the trend is down, we’re likely in “Sell the Rally” mode, which means new sellers will likely show up on a rally to $77.75. Overcoming it with conviction, however, could trigger a near-term acceleration into the intermediate retracement zone at $84.50 to $88.18. That’s the best value area to short.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly August Crude Oil futures contract for the week ending July 3 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 52-week moving average, currently at $68.35.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move above $68.35 will signal the presence of buyers. This could trigger a counter-trend rally into $72.48 to $77.75. Overcome the top level with conviction, and $84.50 to $88.18 becomes the target.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $68.35 will indicate the presence of sellers. If sellers come in heavy under this indicator, then look for a near-term break into $62.50 to $60.00. The major long-term support is the December swing bottom at $55.40.
Outlook: Supply Recovery Expectations Drive Near-Term Bias
This week’s price action shows that traders are thinking more about future supplies than about today’s low inventories. If the U.S.-Iran agreement keeps moving forward and ships start using the Strait of Hormuz normally again, more of the extra price that came from geopolitical worries could keep coming out of the market. That would put more downward pressure on crude prices. The chance of higher Iranian exports is still the biggest reason prices are falling.
However, U.S. inventories are still very low by historical standards, and it will take time for extra Middle East oil to actually reach buyers around the world. This should keep any further drops from happening too fast. For now, the market is betting that the deal will succeed and that Iranian oil exports will rise. Unless the talks run into serious problems, the near-term view stays negative for prices as traders keep selling the positions they built when they expected long supply disruptions.
Technically, we’re looking for a possible counter-trend rebound from $68.90 if traders show respect for the 52-week moving average at $68.35. However, any rally will likely be a grind with potential headwinds between $72.48 and $77.75.
