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This is my final projection for the first round of the 2026 NHL Draft. It’s my best guess, based on months of reporting on this class of prospects, as to what I think will happen tonight when the draft begins.
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Gavin McKenna, LW, Penn State (NCAA)
Toronto has some passion for other players. I think they like Ivar Stenberg, Chase Reid and Caleb Malhotra a lot, but I also think they are persuaded by McKenna’s 100-point potential and view him as a possible difference-maker. I expect him to be the No. 1 pick.
2. San Jose Sharks: Ivar Stenberg, LW, Frölunda (SHL)
The last few weeks, the buzz around the NHL has been about what San Jose will do. For the longest time, most of my sources were convinced they would go with Reid. As we get closer, though, that has slightly shifted toward Stenberg. I think the Sharks like both players a lot, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either were the pick. I think they like other players too, such as Carson Carels and Keaton Verhoeff, but I would be surprised to hear their names.
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3. Vancouver Canucks: Chase Reid, RHD, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
The No. 3 spot has belonged to Caleb Malhotra throughout the lead-up to the draft, and I do believe Vancouver has a ton of passion for the player, but the Canucks have also been quite high on Reid. As we’ve inched closer to the draft, my hunch is that’s the direction they’ll go. I could see either player being the pick here, though.
4. Buffalo Sabres: Caleb Malhotra, C, Brantford (OHL)
In this scenario, Buffalo would take Malhotra and be quite happy getting a premium young center to add to its system. If Malhotra goes 3, I think the Sabres would consider Reid, but I also believe their people are fond of Daxon Rudolph.
5. New York Rangers: Alberts Šmits, LHD, Munich (DEL)
This pick is where a lot of uncertainty starts for me. Will it be Šmits? Will it be Carels (whose lingering concussion issues are becoming a mild concern for teams), or potentially Viggo Björck? My slight lean from my information is Šmits, but I could easily see it being one of those other two players.
6. Calgary Flames: Carson Carels, LHD, Prince George (WHL)
I think Calgary is very happy to get Carels here. If he’s gone, they would have to choose between Björck or Verhoeff, and if I had to pick one, I would guess they would lean toward Björck.
7. Seattle Kraken: Daxon Rudolph, RHD, Prince Albert (WHL)
The board will likely play out for the Kraken to get a much-needed top defense prospect, be it Šmits, Verhoeff or Rudolph. The league consensus thinks Rudolph fits more what they’ve tended to target, which is skill and hockey sense.
8. Winnipeg Jets: Keaton Verhoeff, RHD, North Dakota (NCAA)
In this scenario, Winnipeg is very happy to get one of Verhoeff or Rudolph. I’ve heard a lot of buzz with them with Björck here, but my guess is they end up with one of the big defensemen. Verhoeff slides in this scenario, but as one NHL GM told me this week, don’t be surprised if he goes top five, as there is significant passion in some corners of the league for the player.
9. San Jose Sharks: Malte Gustafsson, LHD, HV71 (SHL)
The Sharks will be primed to get whichever of the top group of six defense prospects is still available. In this scenario, it’s Gustafsson.
10. Nashville Predators: Viggo Björck, C, Djurgården (SHL)
I’ve heard Nashville connected with Björck, Gustafsson and Wyatt Cullen, but Björck’s talent and compete are too tempting for the Predators to pass up here.
11. St. Louis Blues: Alexander Command, C, Örebro (Allsvenskan)
Command is a player that a lot of teams like. I’ve heard him linked with the Blues, although they very well may target him with the No. 15 pick instead.
12. New Jersey Devils: Ethan Belchetz, LW, Windsor (OHL)
The Devils have good young talent at a lot of positions, so they take a swing on a big, talented winger in Belchetz.
13. New York Islanders: Oscar Hemming, LW, Boston College (NCAA)
The Islanders have a need for centers over wingers, but Hemming is a highly skilled power winger who projects to play a premium role in the NHL. I’ve heard them connected with Cullen as well.
14. Columbus Blue Jackets: Wyatt Cullen, LW, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
Columbus is likely to draft a forward at this spot. Between Belchetz, Hemming, Cullen and Tynan Lawrence, this is the likely range of players for the Blue Jackets. I’ve heard JP Hurlbert linked here as well. Cullen is expected to play center next year in college at Minnesota, but he projects as an NHL winger.
15. St. Louis Blues: Gleb Pugachyov, RW, Nizhny Novgorod (MHL)
There’s been a lot of buzz on Pugachyov, and the Blues are among the top suitors for arguably the premier power forward in the draft. With four picks in the first round, the Blues can take a swing on the talented Russian; his profile is very similar to Lawson Crouse at the same age, who went 11th in his draft.
16. St. Louis Blues: Adam Novotný, LW, Peterborough (OHL)
Novotný is another player I’ve heard linked to the Blues, as well as Hurlbert. It’s hard to tell how many of these Blues rumors are legit, or if they just have so many first-round picks that everyone thinks they are taking a certain player.
17. Los Angeles Kings: Oliver Suvanto, C, Tappara (Liiga)
The Kings have a clear need for a center, and they’ve been linked to names like Suvanto, Command, Tynan Lawrence and Jack Hextall.
18. Washington Capitals: Tynan Lawrence, C, Boston University (NCAA)
I think Washington is looking to add a center in this draft. I’ve mostly heard the Capitals linked with Command and Suvanto in the lead-up, but Lawrence has slipped in this projection, and they could roll the dice on his high-end traits.
19. Utah Mammoth: Brooks Rogowski, C, Oshawa (OHL)
The league thinks Utah is going to target a big forward like Rogowski, Maddox Dagenais, Casey Mutryn, Pugachyov or Ilia Morozov. I’m not sure if that’s legit or just people connecting dots to a team that’s drafted big the last few years. At some point, they will need to swing on skill, and there are a few highly skilled wingers around this range that would fit if they go in that direction.
20. Buffalo Sabres: Jonas Lagerberg Hoen, RW, Leksand (Allsvenskan)
The league likes Lagerberg, who missed almost the entire year due to a knee injury, quite a lot. He’s a tall, fast, highly skilled goal scorer who has been a great junior scorer. I’ve heard him linked to Buffalo, who, with a deep system of young players, is lined up to take this kind of swing.
21. Philadelphia Flyers: Ilia Morozov, C, Miami (NCAA)
Philadelphia continues to build out its center depth with a potential middle-six pivot in Morozov. Lawrence and Hextall are also possibilities.
22. Pittsburgh Penguins: Tommy Bleyl, RHD, Moncton (QMJHL)
Pittsburgh wants to add high-end skill, and the Penguins do so with Bleyl, who’s coming off a huge year. Nikita Klepov, Hurlbert and Ryan Lin are also strong possibilities here for the same reasons
23. Boston Bruins: Ryan Lin, RHD, Vancouver (WHL)
The Bruins have a clear need for a top defense prospect, and snatch the best available defenseman in Lin. I have heard Bleyl linked to them as well.
24. Vancouver Canucks: JP Hurlbert, LW, Kamloops (WHL)
With its second first-round pick, Vancouver selects the high-end skilled winger Hurlbert. He projects to play in a middle-six and on the power play.
25. Ottawa Senators: Casey Mutryn, RW, U.S. NTDP (USHL)
Mutryn is a name I’ve heard linked to Ottawa here. He’s a big, physical winger who plays the way the Senators have tended to draft.
26. New York Rangers: Nikita Klepov, RW, Saginaw (OHL)
The Rangers would ideally add a center with this pick, such as Hextall. But similar to their Gabe Perreault pick, not taking Klepov would be passing up too much skill, and they jump on it here.
27. San Jose Sharks: Måns Gudmundsson, RHD, Färjestad (Allsvenskan)
After going with Gustafsson at 9, San Jose selects his U18 defense partner in Gudmundsson, who’s a highly physical two-way defenseman. I could also see Adam Goljer for the Sharks.
28. Montreal Canadiens: Jack Hextall, C, Youngstown (USHL)
Montreal would like to ideally add a center with this pick, and with both Hextall and Maddox Dagenais on the board, the Canadiens opt for the two-way pivot. I’ve also heard them linked to Mutryn.
29. St. Louis Blues: Maksim Sokolovskii, LHD, London (OHL)
I’ve heard the Blues have done a lot of work on the Ruck twins as well as Sokolovskii.
30. Calgary Flames: Liam Ruck, RW, Medicine Hat (WHL)
Calgary dives in by selecting the first of the Ruck twins, setting the stage for the Flames to take Markus with one of their three second-round picks.
31. Carolina Hurricanes: Elton Hermansson, RW, MoDo (Allsvenskan)
Hermansson slid a bit in this projection, and instead of trading down, Carolina drafts the highly skilled winger with top-six tools but inconsistent habits.
32. Ottawa Senators: Maddox Dagenais, C, Quebec (QMJHL)
Ottawa ends the first round by drafting a big, physical forward with skill in Dagenais.
