Tesla has released its official delivery consensus again for Q2 2026. Tesla’s Investor Relations team gathers the 21 analyst delivery estimates and builds a consensus to present to investors ahead of the actual numbers, which will be published next week.
The delivery consensus is not the official delivery numbers, but instead an analyst estimate to be taken with a grain of salt. This quarter, Wall Street expects Tesla to deliver 406,024 vehicles, with 392,6625 of those being the Model 3/Y, and 12,978 being for other vehicles (Cybertruck, remaining Model S/X, and the Tesla Semi).
The delivery consensus also touches on Tesla’s energy storage deployments, with the analyst consensus from 17 analysts totaling 13.8 GWh.
The Numbers
At 406,024, Tesla’s expected deliveries would be a 12% increase quarter-over-quarter since Q1 2026, representing a healthy growth this year. During the same quarter last year, Tesla delivered 410,831 vehicles, and if they meet analyst expectations, it will be just shy of last year’s deliveries.
Q2 2025 was boosted by the upcoming ending of the US Federal EV Rebate, as well as rebates in several other countries. A balanced year-over-year would effectively be a positive sign, given the reduction of global rebates in 2026.
Q1 and Q2 are generally the slowest seasons for the automotive portion of the company, ahead of pushes for Q3 and Q4 sales.
Energy Storage
Quarter-over-quarter, analysts expect a major increase in energy storage deployments, especially now that Megafactory Shanghai is operating at nearly full capacity. As new production comes online in the United States this year, energy storage is one of Tesla’s fastest-growing businesses.
Analysts expect to see 13.8 GWh deployed, a 36% increase over Q1’s 8.8 GWh. The first quarter is typically more challenging for energy storage deployments due to fiscal-year budget rollovers.
Official Numbers Soon
These analyst consensus numbers are generally within a few percentage points of where Tesla will actually land, but we’ll have to wait for the official numbers to see whether Tesla meets these expectations. Tesla is set to release its 2026 Q2 Earnings after market close on July 22nd, with delivery numbers being released on or around July 2nd.
