Jake’s World Cup 2026 Predictions: Staked 116.00pts | Returned 133.57pts | P/L +17.57pts | ROI 15%
***correct as of 09:30 BST (2/7/26)
Football betting tips: World Cup
Portugal vs Croatia – Friday 00:00
1pt the Draw in 90 minutes at 13/5 (Betfred)
0.5pt Either team to win on penalties at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Switzerland vs Algeria – Friday 04:00
0.75pt Breel Embolo 1+ assist at 13/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Australia vs Egypt – Friday 19:00
2pts Mohamed Salah to create 3+ chances at 6/5 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.5pt Mohamed Salah to create 4+ chances at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
0.25pt Mohamed Salah to create 5+ chances at 13/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
Argentina vs Cape Verde – Friday 23:00
1.5pts Lionel Messi 3+ shots on target at 17/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Colombia vs Ghana – Saturday 02:30
2pts Colombia 15+ total shots at 21/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Spain vs Austria
Spain look as though they are growing into this tournament, and while they perhaps are still lacking that cutting edge in attack, defensively they have been impeccable. In three group games they have conceded a total of 0.54 xGA, keeping three clean sheets.
Austria needed an *unscripted* 95th minute equaliser to qualify for this round, but their performances have been underwhelming, especially in the game against a side of a similar calibre to Spain.
Ralf Rangnick’s side were well-beaten by Argentina, failing to create much at all and letting up three big chances. I have a feeling this game could go the same way, with a comfortable win for the better team and at even money, given how impressive Spain have been defensively, backing SPAIN TO WIN TO NIL appeals.
They have exuded control once again on the international stage, and this Austria team are really missing an x-factor in forward areas. Spain won to nil in five of six qualifiers meaning this bet has now won in seven of their last nine competitive games.
This could be routine.
Score prediction: Spain 2-0 Austria (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 10:30 BST (01/07/26)
Portugal vs Croatia
This will be the end of an era one way or another. We’ll see either Cristiano Ronaldo or Luka Modric leaving the world stage for good, so this game could be emotional both on and off the pitch.
Both Portugal and Croatia are likely to contribute to a tight and niggly game that sees few goals with both sides extremely risk-averse and more control orientated.
That could lead to very little goal-mouth action, which makes THE DRAW a real runner at 13/5. It could be a case of both teams not wanting to lose rather than wanting to win, and the longer the game is level the fewer risks each team will take.
At the last Euros under Roberto Martinez, Portugal played out two goalless draws in their two knockout games, while Croatia have been draw specialists in knockout competitions.
They have played eight knockout games across World Cups and Euros since 2018 – not including third placed play-offs – and six of those have ended all square. The only two games that didn’t finish as a draw in 90 minutes were the 2018 World Cup final against France and the 2022 World Cup semi-final against Argentina – both eventual winners.
I think there are some real similarities between these two sides who look to win the match with their midfield but perhaps lack quality at the top end of the pitch, meaning they could very well cancel each other out.
Given Croatia’s knockout record, we’ll also have a bet on EITHER TEAM TO WIN ON PENALTIES at 6/1. Four of Croatia’s six knockout games that finished as a draw in 90 minutes went on to be decided by penalties, while both of Portugal’s knockout games at Euro 2024 went all the way to penalties.
At the time of writing we have had two of the seven round of 32 ties finish as draws in normal time and both went all the way to penalties. Across the last six major tournaments (World Cup and Euros), there have been a total of 29 knockout games that finished level after extra time and a whopping 21 of those were decided on penalties. That’s 72%, so it is strange to see the market price the market evenly between the tie being decided on extra-time or on penalties.
Score prediction: Portugal 1-1 Croatia (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 10:30 BST (01/07/26)
Switzerland vs Algeria
In the end, despite gifting Qatar their first point at a World Cup, Switzerland ran out comfortable winners of an admittedly poor Group B, scoring six times over their final two games.
Algeria played out one of the all-time Hollywood-style scripted games to close out the group stage again Austria, scoring a late goal to take the lead only to concede even later to see both teams advance and give themselves a nicer round of 32 tie (on paper).
I think Switzerland are the better team here and are probably a bit of value to win this in 90 minutes, but I’d rather row back in again with BREEL EMBOLO playing creator for the Swiss, with the market still offering big prices for 1+ ASSIST – this time we are getting 13/2.
He landed this bet for us against both Bosnia and Canada after we spotted his chance creation potential against Qatar, and leads the Swiss for assists (2), expected assists (1.1), big chances created (3) and chances created (8) at the World Cup.
Last time out against Canada he got to start with some mobile and dangerous players around him, namely Johan Manzambi, and Algeria are far from solid defensively, conceding three to Argentina and one to Jordan in games that weren’t fixed.
Score prediction: Switzerland 2-1 Algeria (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 12:20 BST (01/07/26)
Australia vs Egypt
What an opportunity this is for one of these sides to win a knockout game at the World Cup for the first time in both nations history. Australia, perennial underdogs in World Cup groups, finished second in their group for the second successive tournament to get to this stage, while Egypt won a World Cup game for the first time on their way to second place.
Both teams prefer a sit and counter approach so it will be interesting to see how this one unfolds, though I think it will be Egypt who dominate the ball and territory with Australia looking to spring in transition.
That could mean a lot of shots from the Pharaohs, who have been shot-happy in North America so far (48 – 16.0 per game), which makes MOHAMED SALAH‘s SHOTS CREATED prices appeal, especially for him to CREATE 3+ SHOTS at 6/5.
A shot created is simply the final pass to a player before they take a shot, and Salah, playing in the number 10 for Egypt at this tournament, has been creating plenty of them.
He has in fact hit the proposed line in all three group games, averaging 4.54 created per 90, and while it is a small sample size of three games, the uptick in his shots created numbers since moving from the wing to the 10 is notable.
It’s up from 1.90 per 90 at AFCON and 2.05 per 90 in the Premier League last season, and with a shot-happy cast for him to pass to and a team happy to soak up up pressure and face shots, the 3+ is worth taking. It’s worth noting that Salah does share corner duty too which is a bonus for this bet.
As are 4+ SHOTS CREATED and 5+ SHOTS CREATED at 3/1 and 13/2 – with Salah hitting five against New Zealand in the group stage. This market is available with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair and all three firms offer super sub for this bet too which is important to note, as the 4+ line was hit in the Iran game when including super sub as attacking midfielder Zizo replaced the Egypt captain.
For those wanting further security, take the slightly shorter prices on Sky Bet as they are offering this selection with the inclusion of extra-time too, meaning if this game goes the distance, the bet runs with it.
Game state could be hugely favourable for us here if the Aussies take an early lead as they did against Türkiye which would see Egypt chasing and could even see Salah hit 7+ or 8+ with the help of super sub – which are priced at 70/1 and 80/1 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: Australia 1-1 Egypt (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 15:00 BST (01/07/26)
Argentina vs Cape Verde
Argentina have so far been very good at this tournament, and the draw has fallen nice for them, with Cape Verde finishing second ahead of Uruguay in Group H to set-up this round of 32 clash. Get through this and the reigning champions will play the winner of Australia and Egypt for a spot in the quarters.
Despite him hitting 39-years-of-age, it’s still the LIONEL MESSI show for La Albiceleste, with the little magician simply showing no sign of slowing down. It’s quite remarkable really just how good he has been during his 200 minutes of group action.
Six goals scored, 15 shots taken and nine shots on target. The team is built for him, to get the best out of him, which in turn gives the team the best chance of winning – it’s a lot of pressure on his shoulders mind.
Anyway, Messi is 4/7 to score anytime here, 13/5 to score a brace and 10s for a hat-trick – all of which could prove value come full-time, though Cape Verde have shown a real steeliness defensively at the tournament, holding Spain to a goalless draw before drawing their other two group games too.
They did concede a lot of shots to the two better nations they faced, 27 to Spain and 17 to Uruguay, and while Argentina aren’t the most shot-happy team, I do want to have a shot-based bet here.
So far at this tournament, when Messi has been on the pitch, no other Argentine player has found the net. Across his 200 minutes, Messi has taken 55% of his teams shots and been responsible for 75% of their shots on target, so obviously this bet is focused on the great man.
We can back MESSI 3+ SHOTS ON TARGET at 17/10 here which looks huge, with most bookies going odds-on for this selection. He’s landed this bet in both games where he’s played the full 90 minutes, with his shot on target per 90 average at this tournament a huge 4.05.
Given how the game will flow, with Cape Verde sitting deep and inviting pressure, Messi’s accuracy from distance is a huge boost for us, as is the fact that he is on both penalties and direct free-kicks, while the perhaps overlooked bonus here being that this is a home game for Messi.
He has home field advantage with the match taking place at Inter Miami’s stadium, so is familiar with his surroundings which can’t be a bad thing, while there will be a huge Argentine and Messi support at the game. Expect him to deliver.
Score prediction: Argentina 2-0 Cape Verde (Sky Bet odds: 4/1)
Odds correct at 15:25 BST (01/07/26)
Colombia vs Ghana
Colombia have arguably been one of the most impressive teams at this tournament so far. They were dominant in wins over Uzbekistan and DR Congo before giving Portugal the runaround despite resting key starters.
They out-shot the Portuguese 24-13 and racked up nearly double the xG (1.70-0.93), with the Europeans unable to deal with the pace and intensity of the Colombians. Ghana present a different test to Portugal, though a similar one to DR Congo.
Carlos Queiroz’s side will be defence-first, aiming to frustrate the better team and nick a goal – the same game plan as we saw against England. That deep approach lends itself to facing a lot of shots, with England firing 19 in matchday two of the group stage, and with Colombia perhaps even more trigger-happy than the Three Lions, their shot line looks worth attacking.
We can back COLOMBIA 15+ TOTAL SHOTS at 21/20 here which looks like a cracking angle. The South Americans have hit this line in all three group games, taking more shots as the games went by (15-20-24) and averaging 19.7 per game, interestingly managing 20 against DR Congo who approach things in a similar manner.
Ghana shipped 11 to a poor Panama side, and while eight against Croatia sounds good, it’s worth noting that Croatia are not shot-happy, taking a total of 24 shots in their three games – the same number as Colombia managed against one of the best European sides around.
Score prediction: Colombia 2-0 Ghana (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 16:40 BST (01/07/26)
Already advised
South Africa vs Canada – Sunday 20:00
❌ 1pt Teboho Mokoena to be carded at 11/4 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Brazil vs Japan – Monday 18:00
❌ 0.5pt Gabriel Magalhaes to score anytime at 12/1 (William Hill)
Germany vs Paraguay – Monday 21:30
✅ 1.5pts Germany 7+ corners at 6/5 (Paddy Power)
✅ 0.5pt Germany 9+ corners at 7/2 (Paddy Power)
Netherlands vs Morocco – Monday 02:00
✅ 1.5pts Both teams to score at 10/11 (General)
❌ 0.75pt Ismael Saibari to score anytime at 3/1 (General)
❌ 0.25pt Morocco/Netherlands Half time/Full time at 28/1 (General)
Côte d’Ivoire vs Norway – Tuesday 18:00
❌ 1pt Yan Diomande to score or assist at 2/1 (bet365)
France vs Sweden – Tuesday 22:00
❌ 0.75pt Kylian Mbappe to score from outside the box at 9/1 (bet365, Betway)
Mexico vs Ecuador – Wednesday 02:00
❌ 1.25pts Ecuador to qualify at 6/4 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
❌ 0.5pt Ecuador win to nil at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
England vs DR Congo – Wednesday 17:00
❌ 1.5pts Marc Guehi to win 2+ fouls at 11/8 (Betfred)
❌ 1pt Ezri Konsa to commit 2+ fouls at 12/5 (BetVictor)
❌ 1pt Marcus Rashford 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 9/4 (bet365)
Belgium vs Senegal – Thursday 21:00
✅ 1pt Ismaïla Sarr to score anytime at 10/3 (General)
USA vs Bosnia – Thursday 01:00
✅ 2.5pts USA -1 Handicap at 11/10 (General)
❌ 0.75pt USA -2 Handicap at 14/5 (General)
❌ 0.25pt USA -3 Handicap at 7/1 (General)
Spain vs Austria – Thursday 20:00
2pts Spain win to nil at evens (General)
More World Cup content from Sporting Life
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